Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Alright mate. Lets just guess who are dying, rather than test them.

Friends and families deserve the right to know what killed their loved ones.

97 year old died. Attributed to Covid19. He'd isolated for a month. Never tested, family left wondering whether that one time they dropped off a cake killed him. Will never know because no test.
If everyone could be tetsed that would work, they can't so it doesn't
 
Total deaths in England and Wales vs Average of corresponding week over previous 5 years is interesting.

View attachment 85250
week ending the 17/04 over double the usual amounts! :eek:
You would imagine that once this has cleared we may see a drop in the figures compared to average as the virus may have killed many people Who were already seriously ill. Maybe figures at the end of the year would be the best way of gauging the full impact.
Think this is the best way of comparing our response to that of other countries.
 
They're not testing up to capacity are they?

They can also retrospectively test at a later date, something they ruled out doing.

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Being my whole point.

Test, don't guess.

Only had a quick skim at the numbers but total England an Wales registered deaths per week;

Average weekly deaths this year so far: 12,957
Average weekly deaths over 5 previous years up to now: 11,574

Up until 27th March, the average weekly registered deaths in England and Wales in 2020 was tracking 293 behind the average for the previous 5 years.

So, up until recently - as far as I can tell from ONS - this year, England/Wales actually had a lower number of weekly deaths vs the average. I never would have expected that...

It looks from that spread sheet (and i only glanced) that they are reporting non - covid and covid deaths sepereately and not as a joint figure. What page are you drawing the data from?
 
They're not testing up to capacity are they?

They can also retrospectively test at a later date, something they ruled out doing.
The whole thing still seems pretty muddled in that regard.

I agree with the principle of what you are saying but if the facility isn't there to make it a more accurate representation then I'm not sure that data does anyone any favours policy wise
 
It looks from that spread sheet (and i only glanced) that they are reporting non - covid and covid deaths sepereately and not as a joint figure. What page are you drawing the data from?

I linked it - it's below again, also the note beneath seems to answer that question?

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That would be interesting to watch out for - given we are just coming out of flu season, normally you would expect to be becoming out of an apex period.

3rd January 2020.

"Hospitalisations for flu 10-fold higher than last year, official figures show"


Total numbers hospitalised with flu have now reached 3,152 this season, compared with 331 last year, the figures show.
 
I linked it - it's below again, also the note beneath seems to answer that question?

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3rd January 2020.

"Hospitalisations for flu 10-fold higher than last year, official figures show"


It says this in the terms of reference in the opening page - then has two separate spread sheets for non covid and covid RIP's :

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the numbers of deaths involving COVID-19. That is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. Previously, the number of deaths with an underlying cause of respiratory disease was published a week behind the current week. These will now be published for the current week and revised the following week. Alongside this, a new bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic. A link to the bulletin can be found in the notice box on the weekly deaths dataset page.

Was a nasty year for the flu this year, we got a super dosed jab in work, apparently a rotten strain came over from Australia after their winter.
 
. We are under-reporting covid-19 deaths not over-reporting.
How do you come to this conclusion?.

All hospital deaths have been tested. For those community and care home deaths that have not been tested, GPs have been instructed to record suspected CV19 on the death certificate wherever the deceased have shown symptoms of the virus. The ONS figures include all deaths were CV19 is listed on the death certificate whether it be tested or suspected. Many of the suspected cases could very easily be a common cold or other flu like illness. But the likelihood of somebody dying in the community of CV19 without showing any symptoms would be very slim I imagine.

So what makes you say that CV19 deaths are being under reported?
 
The pelters I got on here for even suggesting this...Wake up fellas! @JimmyJeffers @RAFUH @nsno-chris @RFUS @zzr45


US Intelligence community says it wasn't.
Trump said that crap after this came out because it goes against his usual play of distract and blame others.
Also, he notoriously does not read his intelligence or any other briefings and barely listens when advisers try to give him the highlights so anything he saw or heard was from OANN or similar



 
I linked it - it's below again, also the note beneath seems to answer that question?

View attachment 85256




3rd January 2020.

"Hospitalisations for flu 10-fold higher than last year, official figures show"


Total numbers hospitalised with flu have now reached 3,152 this season, compared with 331 last year, the figures show.
This years flu was a bad one. Many people on here have commented on it. Some even believe it may have been the coronavirus.
 
Clear that in and of themselves population density/number of major cities have little explanatory power, but has there been any multivariate analysis? Still could be significant even if the effect size is small.
Haven’t seen any yet but presumably there will be lots of analysis over the coming months which will be interesting to see.

@Walken has linked to some of the excellent work done in Kerala https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52283748
but I feared India overall was going to find it very hard to control coronavirus in part because of their high population density, especially when saw the crowds at train stations after the lockdown announcement.

Yet thankfully they don’t seem to be, there are only around 1000 recorded deaths. Some of that is undoubtedly underreporting due to a lack of testing etc but as we’ve sadly seen in Ecuador or New York a bad outbreak is pretty obvious and the limited testing they are doing is coming back with positivity rates of ~5% which would support the conclusion that spread is low.
 
Why? They need to be held to account! They lied, covered it up and have since attacked any nation daring to question them on it.

That’s fine. And I’m all for holding to account those in power who lie and cover things up. But we shouldn’t mistake establishing the cause and origin of the virus, with negligent responses to it.

There’s many using the ‘blame China’ narrative, to excuse their own shortcomings, or those of their own governments.
 
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