Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[PhilM]

The stats are mainly the old and vulnerable tbf.

Yes they are, but the key word is mainly.

If you're looking at economy of scale, 0.9% of cases* of death had no underlying health concerns, but say if that was seven million cases that's still 63,000 people**.

If you scale it to the entire population, you can see a trend. Trends of 50-59 (age) is 1.3% and 40-49 is 0.4%, so we're not talking about incredibly small numbers.

There is also the chance that if we scale back the lock down, the numbers of elderly/at risk dying may spike as there'll be an increased transfer rate etc.

The young and fit may not be dying from Corona-Virus at a rate compared to other demographics, but it will still currently put a lot of stress on the health service.

*These are figures back from February, so it'll be interesting to see since it's grown further. **We're talking over the long-term here.

 

[jamieni]

Yes they are, but the key word is mainly.

If you're looking at economy of scale, 0.9% of cases* of death had no underlying health concerns, but say if that was seven million cases that's still 63,000 people**.

If you scale it to the entire population, you can see a trend. Trends of 50-59 is 1.3% and 40-49 is 0.4%, so we're not talking about incredibly small numbers.

There is also the chance that if we scale back the lock down, the numbers of elderly/at risk dying may spike as there'll be an increased transfer rate etc.

The young and fit may not be dying from Corona-Virus at a rate compared to other demographics, but it will still currently put a lot of stress on the health service.

*These are figures back from February, so it'll be interesting to see since it's grown further. **We're talking over the long-term here.

Yup. It’s the infectiousness of the disease and chance of a huge proportion of the population contacting it over a very short period that makes this such a difficult situation to manage.

The mortality rate across all ages will increase if the NHS is overwhelmed as well.

 

[tsubaki]

Liverpools economy relies heavily on the universities. The universities rely on foreign students and news reaches me that the number of enrolments from foreign students for September is catastrophically low. This lockdown needs to end asap and an economic recovery plan put into place. The consequences of an endless lockdown go far beyond short term deaths rates. The picture is much bigger.

TBF that sector was propped up by an unending supply of cheap loans as it is, this crunch was coming anyway.

 

[Neiler]

I think the daily reported deaths have to be treated with caution due to obvious under-reporting of deaths in care homes etc. However, they are useful for trend analysis. A sustained fall in positive cases and subsequently deaths will be a good indicator that things are headed in the right direction. May be a while before we see that though.

I'm beginning to get concerned about the UK if i'm honest. If the 50% figure of care home deaths is true and applied to the UK, they join Italy, Spain and USA as the worst effected countries. Thankfully though it seems like the NHS is critically standing up to challenge and not becoming swamped and that is a massive positive (despite the PPE shortage, but that is biting over here now to).

I think overall its impossible to know how the UK are doing, but there are a number of red flags, 1) the correlation between confirmed cases to RIPs after a 14 day incubation period is really bad - it shows poor testing - RIP's after 14 days, showing testing is massively inaccurate or completely under resourced and under done. 2) The reliability of Data of excluding care homes (Why?). 3) The lack of testing - your number of infection detecting is only as good as the number of test you do. 4) The Uk appears to have a higher motility rate then other European counties and that before you recognize the exclusion of care home R.I.P figures and other exclusions.

In an odd way im beginning to be suspicions that, perhaps the herd immunity strategy hasnt really gone away, there just doesnt seem to be a clear infrastructure being set up around testing, contract tracing etc in this critical time of preparation and it is critical, moving forward. Honestly i beginning to think the initial herd immunity strategy is being ghosted into implementation here, with current restrictions to stop the NHS being swamped.

Hopefully though im wrong on all of the above, the UK are our nearest neighbors and we share a common bond, ive lived there myself for a few years,, i want the country to be safe and well.

 

[Tea_drinker]

TBF that sector was propped up by an unending supply of cheap loans as it is, this crunch was coming anyway.

Not so much in regard to foreign students. They put a fortune into the city. They buy a lot of property in the city centre and help the restaurants and shops big time.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Those TGV s take patients out of over crowded areas and down to areas with little or no cases of the virus ;-) taking pressure off pressurised areas like Paris and Strasbourg where most cases are ;-) Each patient has 2 doctors( and 4 nurses and 2 student doctors with them and 2 patients per carriage at most ;-)

Ah, fair enough. Thanks for setting me straight

 

[PhilM]

Liverpools economy relies heavily on the universities. The universities rely on foreign students and news reaches me that the number of enrolments from foreign students for September is catastrophically low. This lockdown needs to end asap and an economic recovery plan put into place. The consequences of an endless lockdown go far beyond short term deaths rates. The picture is much bigger.

Indeed it is, hence why the government and NHS are not looking simply at minimising short-term death rates (it is a part), but rather the long-term trends.

They need to be able to the trend of deaths and infections the long-term and to do that needs the rise of infections/deaths to be curtailed and get prepared.

If they pull the lock down too quickly, we could quite easily see the NHS etc. being swamped through a secondary spike and most the hard work would be undone.

Yes, the economy is suffering and that is another huge worry in the long-term, but you'd hope that the scientists and economists would be balancing this.

You only need to look at today's ONS statistics of daily deaths in the previous month (up to 3rd April) compared to previous years and it's much, much higher now.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

The stats are mainly the old and vulnerable tbf.

Yes they are, however, if normally healthy person has a serious accident or incident that requires hospitalisation and ICU management, you don't want them all full of people with COVID19... We have the lowest number of managed ICU beds in the western world. But we have more money in our pockets.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Aye, it's a tricky one. I read in France they were converting TGV trains into moving ambulances to get people to where ICU capacity was better, but the train links to Cornwall are notoriously awful, so I suppose that's not a viable option (even though there are sleeper trains down there, you'd imagine the slowness would be a problem).

There's Plymouth just over the border but I imagine all our neighbouring counties, Devon, Dorset and Somerset are not in a much better place themselves as regards NHS capability. I guess the easy answer is stay isolated and don't get it.

 

[Barnfred 55]

No idea tbh.

Yeah I regret making that post. It was beneath me

 

[tsubaki]

Not so much in regard to foreign students. They put a fortune into the city. They buy a lot of property in the city centre and help the restaurants and shops big time.

they do, but the facilities they come to study at have benefited loads from the loan system

 

[PITA]

I've seen a few things suggesting London might have already peaked, and any growth in the UK is now coming from elsewhere. It seems thus far as though the London hospitals have managed to cope with the demands placed upon them, which is positive. I'm not sure, for instance, how many of the 5,000 beds at the Nightingale in the Excel are occupied?

We don't seem to hear a lot about Nightingale.

 

[jamieni]

Indeed it is, hence why the government and NHS are not looking simply at minimising short-term death rates (it is a part), but rather the long-term trends.

They need to be able to the trend of deaths and infections the long-term and to do that needs the rise of infections/deaths to be curtailed and get prepared.

If they pull the lock down too quickly, we could quite easily see the NHS etc. being swamped through a secondary spike and most the hard work would be undone.

Yes, the economy is suffering and that is another huge worry in the long-term, but you'd hope that the scientists and economists would be balancing this.

You only need to look at today's ONS statistics of daily deaths in the previous month (up to 3rd April) compared to previous years and it's much, much higher now.

Basically it’s a balancing act between two catastrophic outcomes. If you lift lockdown too soon and the health care system becomes overwhelmed then you have a massive spike in deaths and huge economic and social fall out from that. If you lock down too long then there are horrific long term social and economic consequences that will claim lots of lives. As has been said before, there really isn’t a “good solution” to this. It’s just damage limitation at this point.

 

[summerisle]

What about absinthe ?

 

[COYBL25]

Liverpools economy relies heavily on the universities. The universities rely on foreign students and news reaches me that the number of enrolments from foreign students for September is catastrophically low. This lockdown needs to end asap and an economic recovery plan put into place. The consequences of an endless lockdown go far beyond short term deaths rates. The picture is much bigger.

My next door neighbour is a lecturer at LIverpool Uni and he`s told me that they`ve been told to expect major job losses due the fact that the masses of Chinese students at the Uni will not be back anytime soon.

Knock that onto all the purpose built accommodation that they occupy around the city centre that will be empty / no rent being paid and all the money they spend when out and about.

A disaster not only for the Uni, but the City too.