This letter illustrated the stigma that's been attached to herd immunity when its the only long term solution whether achieved by vaccine (eventually) or/and controlled relaxation and monitoring, this now needs to be tackled - an exit strategy is essential.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1248989722212532224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1248989722212532224&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231248989722212532224
As the owner of the twitter account said
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The obsessing over the government's decisions to date - understandable even if much of it is driven by antipathy to the incumbent - obscures the fact that most democracies are dealing with this in the same way, with some variations as you'd expect.'
All governments will follow similar courses of gradual release of prohibitions while protecting the elderly and vulnerable with extended shielding - this has to be followed until a vaccine is produced, whenever that will be, September, a year or longer. It can't just be the good way is lockdown forever until a vaccine produced and the bad way release, that's just not sensible and ignores basic survival which functioning economies - even if devastated by debt - will give.
The debt mountain the world will face will bankrupt many economies as it is, this could mean a similar period of austerity to that undergone after World War II - if you think austerity in the last 10 years was bad then this could be far more severe and a lot longer lasting.
Mass unemployment, broken businesses, no government money to spend even if they wanted to. The elephant in the room is ruined economies and what comes after.
The mistakes made in the name of 'herd immunity' have given it connotations which are quite different to what it actually is, vaccination achieves herd immunity.
A mass produced vaccine is the only way you completely stop it, but that could be a year to eighteen months or more away - some plan of controlled release, mass testing, close monitoring and some parts of the economy returning has to be found.
The figures for this quarter will be horrendous but expected, no economy can just carry on spending so much indefinitely though, and certainly not for a lengthy time - social unrest and mass poverty are real dangers.
Noone is proposing repeating former mistakes but a very gradual lifting of some targeted sanctions for a part of the population some time after the peak is reached. June is possible.
Mass testing and extended shielding of the elderly and vulnerable together with maintenance of social distancing would go alongside, meaning all social gatherings and sport won't be normal for a very long time.
The real problems caused by increased death rates from other serious illnesses not receiving the 'normal' very intensive attention - often due to a reluctance to attend hospitals and catch it at an early stage (for example cancer) plus increasing levels of mental instability are existing now, but will be added to many times over by the multiple problems and misery caused by bankrupt governments dealing with broken economies and mass deprivation.
