Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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It was almost certainly bog standard flu mate. Plenty of people had it, and some ( mostly elderly people and ones with underlying health conditions ) were admitted to hospital with it. A fair number of those would have been tested, and found to have been infected with whatever strain of flu was going round.

I had it, as did my missus. She's also a nurse in our local hospital and nursed people with it who tested positive for the flu. Chances are, she probably picked it up in there and gave it me. If she repeats that with COVID-19, I ain't going to be overly chuffed.
My mum was in hospital in December with pneumonia. Doctors couldn’t work out what it was. They were doing to put her in an isolation ward but whatever swabs they did came back clear. Still no idea what caused it but highly unlikely to have been COVID.
 

"Individuals and scientists around the world immediately pointed out the obvious flaws: there’s no way to ensure only young people get infected; you need 60-70% of the population to be infected and recover to have a shot at herd immunity, and there aren’t that many young and healthy people in the UK, or anywhere. Moreover, many young people have severe cases of the disease, overloading healthcare systems, and a not-so-small number of them die. It is not a free ride."

^ That was why the initial government approach was simply incompetent. It's why the criticism is just, and that FT comment misses the overall point.

The Tories ballsed this up.

Criticism is only just when you have a better solution.

I don't mind people having a go if they have a better solution, but when people don't, they should temper their anger.

It's easy to critisize, without suggesting a better course of action.

What would you rather do instead, wait 18 months for a vaccine?
 
Criticism is only just when you have a better solution.

I don't mind people having a go if they have a better solution, but when people don't, they should temper their anger.

It's easy to critisize, without suggesting a better course of action.

What would you rather do instead, wait 18 months for a vaccine?

What are you talking about???

The right strategy is the current one, turned off and on when the infection rate peaks and runs low. Yes, the correct strategy is to play this out as long as possible, until we get a vaccine if need be, but not locking down the country for years in the interim.

The wrong strategy - and the one criticised initially and why we're now one of the worst countries in Europe to be hit by this - was the "do nothing" mitigate one.
 
What are you talking about???

The right strategy is the current one, turned off and on when the infection rate peaks and runs low. Yes, the correct strategy is to play this out as long as possible, until we get a vaccine if need be, but not locking down the country for years in the interim.

The wrong strategy - and the one criticised initially and why we're now one of the worst countries in Europe to be hit by this - was the "do nothing" mitigate one.

Personally, I think you've misunderstood the initial strategy. From the moment BJ said about herd immunity, it seemed obvious to me he was going to enforce a lockdown at some point, unlock it, and continue to do so until enough people got infected to generate herd immunity.

I think some people are assuming he was just going to let it infect everyone at the same time and totally swamp the NHS, which is obvious he never had any intention of doing.
 
Personally, I think you've misunderstood the initial strategy. From the moment BJ said about herd immunity, it seemed obvious to me he was going to enforce a lockdown at some point, unlock it, and continue to do so until enough people got infected to generate herd immunity.

I think some people are assuming he was just going to let it infect everyone at the same time and totally swamp the NHS, which is obvious he never had any intention of doing.

Nah you've misunderstood it. The initial strategy was to include basic shielding of the vulnerable but no lockdown at all. Indeed, the aim was to let as many young people get it as possible to achieve herd immunity - to "take it on the chin" as Johnson said.

This is all a matter of record - the initial strategy was "mitigate" by shielding old people at some point; the strategy now is "suppression", because "mitigate" was mind numbingly stupid.
 
Nah you've misunderstood it. The initial strategy was to include basic shielding of the vulnerable but no lockdown at all. Indeed, the aim was to let as many young people get it as possible to achieve herd immunity - to "take it on the chin" as Johnson said.

This is all a matter of record - the initial strategy was "mitigate" by shielding old people at some point; the strategy now is "suppression", because "mitigate" was kind numbingly stupid.

If you're right it was beyond stupid, but it just seems so stupid that it's hard to believe anyone with any scientific advisors would actually try implementing it. :rolleyes:
 
If you're right it was beyond stupid, but it just seems so stupid that it's hard to believe anyone with any scientific advisors would actually try implementing it. :rolleyes:

I understand why you'd misunderstand it to be honest, because so much has happened - including the most drastic change to our lives we'll ever see and that any generation has seen since the 1940s - but yeah, that's what happened.


"The mitigation strategy focused on measures such as asking people with coronavirus symptoms to self-isolate for 14 days and for elderly people to avoid social contact.

In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU [intensive care unit] beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined.

"In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."

The bold bits were the only measures imagined for a mitigate strategy.

Basically, track cases when you can, then tell everyone who gets it to quarantine at home but put no wider lockdown measures in, and ask the elderly to stay 2m apart from everyone and - famously - "just wash your hands". That was it. Nothing else.

And you're right - it's hard to believe but that's what they initially wanted to do. That's why the Tories were criticised for it.

Make no mistake, the Tories - specifically Cummings enabled by Johnson - wanted to let this thing run riot.
 
I understand why you'd misunderstand it to be honest, because so much has happened - including the most drastic change to our lives we'll ever see and that any generation has seen since the 1940s - but yeah, that's what happened.




The bold bits were the only measures imagined for a mitigate strategy.

Basically, track cases when you can, then tell everyone who gets it to quarantine at home but put no wider lockdown measures in, and ask the elderly to stay 2m apart from everyone and - famously - "just wash your hands". That was it. Nothing else.

And you're right - it's hard to believe but that's what they initially wanted to do. That's why the Tories were criticised for it.

Make no mistake, the Tories - specifically Cummings enabled by Johnson - wanted to let this thing run riot.

Thanks, I read some other stuff on top. You're right, my mistake.

Retarded initial strategy. :oops:
 
I've seen these a few times when I've been driving through MK, it's bizarre to see them just driving down the path on the way to their destination but they seem pretty solid and reliable.
I do not suppose it will be long before they are comandeered by the more nefarious elements of society, using them to deliver drugs, joy riding on them and the like.
 
Personally, I think you've misunderstood the initial strategy. From the moment BJ said about herd immunity, it seemed obvious to me he was going to enforce a lockdown at some point, unlock it, and continue to do so until enough people got infected to generate herd immunity.

I think some people are assuming he was just going to let it infect everyone at the same time and totally swamp the NHS, which is obvious he never had any intention of doing.
that is exactly what he suggested in his 'take it all at once' speech. Though he is such a talentless and lazy politician it is very possible he didn't actually understand the policy or read the modelling data
 
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