Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[RAFUH]

Interesting stuff for separate states.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-update-more-than-1000-deaths-in-one-day/

This graph is damning twice over....the initial delay and now a decline

 

[Jay]

I came up with this module which should explain where this thing is going, using Italy as example simply because they are ahead of the rest of the World, i am using this data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

As you know, almost 1 in 10 cases in Italy are dying, which means 9 are recovering, that takes us to "active cases", so far the total cases are 115242, removing those who died so far (13915) and those who recovered (18,278) that leaves us with 83049 active cases (I know the numbers are much higher but the module reflects the situation regardless of the real numbers)

Here is the daily situation starting March 1 till today:

+Active Cases -Death *Recovery XNew Cases
1-1577 -12 *33 X573
2-1835 +258 -11 *66 X335
3-2263 +428 -27 *11 X466
4-2706 +443 -28 *116 X587
5-3296 +590 -41 *138 X769
6-3916 +620 -49 *109 X778
7-5061 +1145 -36 *66 X1247
8-6387 +1326 -133 *33 X1492
9-7985 +1598 -97 *102 X1797
10-8514 +529 -168 *280 X977
11-10590 +2076 -196 *41 X2313
12-12839 +2249 -189 *213 X2651
13-14955 +2116 -250 *181 X2547
14-17750 +2795 -175 *527 X3497
15-20603 +2853 -368 *369 X3590
16-23073 +2470 -349 *414 X3233
17-26062 +2989 -345 *192 X3526
18-28710 +2648 -475 *1084 X4207
19-33190 +4480 -427 *415 X5322
20-37860 +4670 -627 *689 X5986
21-42681 +4821 -793 *943 X6557
22-46638 +3957 -651 *952 X5560
23-50418 +3780 -601 *408 X4789
24-54030 +3612 -743 *894 X5249
25-57521 +3491 -683 *1036 X5210
26-62013 +4492 -712 *999 X6203
27-66414 +4401 -919 *589 X5909
28-70065 +3651 -889 *1434 X5974
29-73880 +3815 -756 *646 X5217
30-75528 +1648 -812 *1590 X4050
31-77635 +2107 -837 *1109 X4053
01-80572 +2937 -727 *1118 X4782
02-83049 +2477 -760 *1431 X4668

To explain the table above: you take the daily new cases (last raw) and you remove the daily recovered and deaths and you will have daily new active cases

While the daily active cases are still rising, you can notice that it's taking a bell shaped curve, the peak was 4821 on March 21, now it's 2477 (half the peak), the deaths been consistent for 14 days now while the recoveries are beginning to rise (and will continue to rise in the days ahead), new cases are dropping but not as fast as what we hope for.

If the lock-down is working (They are in day 24 now, things should start improving after day 28) what we should see is less new cases, more recoveries and deaths should start slowing down but will continue unfortunately, we should reach the peak where the active cases will start dropping, currently it is still rising (everyday it is +), if tomorrow there are 2000 new cases and 2000 recoveries and 500 deaths, it means the active cases will drop from 83049 to 82549. Obviously once the trend changes to negative, the number of active cases will keep on going down till it is under control

Conclusion: It's clear that the daily active cases has peaked and the growth is going down, but it is still growing, what we need is new cases to drop more and more each passing day for this thing to work, Italy did flatten the curve but it should start going down, the only way it goes down is with less new daily cases.

 

[PhilM]

That woudl explain a higher death rate in those countries, but not a higher transmission rate.

To me, when you see how the curve was flattened so effectively in South Korea in particular, it's quite clear that the cultural difference in Spain/Italy played a huge factor in the transmission rate skyrocketing.

For the UK/US, it's a bit different. It's skyrocketing here mostly because we're just an incredibly stupid populace who don't use common sense, simultaneously led by braindead donkeys.

I suspect the national percentage of people living in urban areas and the population density in these (their) main cities would be interesting figures.

When you add in the % of the population who smoke and the % of the population who are over 65, I suspect you'll see a common theme in some countries.

 

[Brisan123]

I think if everyone wore them it would be a good thing. It would have to work on a i am protecting you, you are protecting me basis.

While instead of looking at people wearing masks as weirdos, it would be scornful not to have a mask.

My only concern is that mask hygiene is important.

For example ive seen people around the community with masks on and ive seen them taking them of getting into their cars, they grab the front of the mask and pull it off over their face, contaminating their hands and face. You should never touch the front of a mask after use as this is the most likely infected area of a mask, you pull it off by the strings at the back away from your face and wash your hands.

Or ive also seen people pull it off with plastic gloves on, touching and potentially contaminating their faces. That is nothing a bit of education or a 3 minute youtube video wouldn't sort out, as well as how to sanitize and dispose off your mask.

I think the WHO are afraid of that part and the general public to be honest how to actually use this stuff safely, take it off safely and dispose of it safely, there is as much risk of contamination in taking it off and disposing as there is not actually using it, but its not rocket science either, people aren't stupid.

So i think there would need to be a call for the community to wear masks by governments like recommending social distancing, backed by some education on mask hygiene - simple stuff really.

I think it could make a big difference, especially when the community get a bit more closer to reality - going back to work etc, using public transport, shops etc. But id say we wont be seeing it for a while, governments definitely dont want the general public in the medical supply market place.

Are you sure
Cheltenham,Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid.Temple bar the saturday night before the pubs were shut
People may not be stupid ,but a lot of people do a lot of stupid things

 

[summerisle]

Top bloke.

 

[RAFUH]

CDC are headquartered in his state - don’t know which is worse possibility a) he didn’t bother asking them b) they didn’t know about asymptotic transmission

I'd bet he did a Trump when the experts briefed him (ie didn't pay attention) or didn't believe because he doesn't science and it didn't fit his/Trump's narrative.

*yes, I have become hopelessly cynical

 

[Nymzee]

I'd be curious to know what % of those deemed serious/critical move on to recovered on this site.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 130,307,410 Cases and 2,842,464 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[peteblue]

Do you really think a scientist advocated herd immunity and accepting over 100,000 would die ??

Well I’m pretty sure no politician would.....

 

[RAFUH]

Florida reporting over 200 deaths so far today. Only 16 yesterday

AH...must have been a typo. Revised to 27

 

[Minimeister]

What if there isn't an actual spike? The only country who have supposed to hit that are China who I don't believe a word of their figures. What if it keeps killing people at this horrific rate?

 

[peteblue]

What if there isn't an actual spike? The only country who have supposed to hit that are China who I don't believe a word of their figures. What if it keeps killing people at this horrific rate?

Then we all die .........

 

[Tipp blue]

I came up with this module which should explain where this thing is going, using Italy as example simply because they are ahead of the rest of the World, i am using this data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

As you know, almost 1 in 10 cases in Italy are dying, which means 9 are recovering, that takes us to "active cases", so far the total cases are 115242, removing those who died so far (13915) and those who recovered (18,278) that leaves us with 83049 active cases (I know the numbers are much higher but the module reflects the situation regardless of the real numbers)

Here is the daily situation starting March 1 till today:

+Active Cases -Death *Recovery XNew Cases
1-1577 -12 *33 X573
2-1835 +258 -11 *66 X335
3-2263 +428 -27 *11 X466
4-2706 +443 -28 *116 X587
5-3296 +590 -41 *138 X769
6-3916 +620 -49 *109 X778
7-5061 +1145 -36 *66 X1247
8-6387 +1326 -133 *33 X1492
9-7985 +1598 -97 *102 X1797
10-8514 +529 -168 *280 X977
11-10590 +2076 -196 *41 X2313
12-12839 +2249 -189 *213 X2651
13-14955 +2116 -250 *181 X2547
14-17750 +2795 -175 *527 X3497
15-20603 +2853 -368 *369 X3590
16-23073 +2470 -349 *414 X3233
17-26062 +2989 -345 *192 X3526
18-28710 +2648 -475 *1084 X4207
19-33190 +4480 -427 *415 X5322
20-37860 +4670 -627 *689 X5986
21-42681 +4821 -793 *943 X6557
22-46638 +3957 -651 *952 X5560
23-50418 +3780 -601 *408 X4789
24-54030 +3612 -743 *894 X5249
25-57521 +3491 -683 *1036 X5210
26-62013 +4492 -712 *999 X6203
27-66414 +4401 -919 *589 X5909
28-70065 +3651 -889 *1434 X5974
29-73880 +3815 -756 *646 X5217
30-75528 +1648 -812 *1590 X4050
31-77635 +2107 -837 *1109 X4053
01-80572 +2937 -727 *1118 X4782
02-83049 +2477 -760 *1431 X4668

To explain the table above: you take the daily new cases (last raw) and you remove the daily recovered and deaths and you will have daily new active cases

While the daily active cases are still rising, you can notice that it's taking a bell shaped curve, the peak was 4821 on March 21, now it's 2477 (half the peak), the deaths been consistent for 14 days now while the recoveries are beginning to rise (and will continue to rise in the days ahead), new cases are dropping but not as fast as what we hope for.

If the lock-down is working (They are in day 24 now, things should start improving after day 28) what we should see is less new cases, more recoveries and deaths should start slowing down but will continue unfortunately, we should reach the peak where the active cases will start dropping, currently it is still rising (everyday it is +), if tomorrow there are 2000 new cases and 2000 recoveries and 500 deaths, it means the active cases will drop from 83049 to 82549. Obviously once the trend changes to negative, the number of active cases will keep on going down till it is under control

Conclusion: It's clear that the daily active cases has peaked and the growth is going down, but it is still growing, what we need is new cases to drop more and more each passing day for this thing to work, Italy did flatten the curve but it should start going down, the only way it goes down is with less new daily cases.

The problem in getting confirmed recovery is that to prove someone is recovered and disease free then you need to use a testing kit, and those are in short supply, I know in Ireland loads have been discharged from hospital but they are not included in the recovery numbers which still sits at 5 and has done for about 3 weeks only using tests to confirm cases not recovery.

 

[Tipp blue]

What if there isn't an actual spike? The only country who have supposed to hit that are China who I don't believe a word of their figures. What if it keeps killing people at this horrific rate?

Then it's gone in about 2 years it will kill everyone it's going to kill and the rest will have recovered and be immune.

 

[canuckblue]

Sunlight does not kill the virus. Only a specific type and intensity of UV light does and there isn't enough in sunlight.
Which is good as the UV that does kill viruses damages DNA and RNA so would be pretty harmful to humans.

We are fortunate to have you on here to provide sound information.

 

[Blues Harp]

Their advisors were the Medics and Scientists.....

Just Stop it...the decisions were politically motivated by a group of lying barstewards...the Tory party.