Apologies, longer post. I'll try and distill the election from what I can see, and things I didn't totally foresee
I thought Harris would win, seemingly against all the odds. When she came in, people were giving the Dems around a 10-20% chance. MAGA supporters even less. So in some ways, not a woeful prediction, as she was sort of "live" but she lost so it was the wrong call.
What I called right was the enthusiasm for Trump wasn't enormous. He's still below his 2020 numbers, I suspect he may finish below them too. And that's with some switchers due to legitimate concerns about the economy. It's presented a big victory for him, but really his message is still a little dated, and there remains no great new outpouring for him.
The reality is the Democrats lost. While his vote declined slightly, there's collapses. Currently sitting at 68m down from 81m in 2020.
In 2020 there was a pandemic, no great GOTV operation and ultimately not the same rush to get women voters around abortion. With that in mind, to get less voters, and potentially 10m+ (maybe 15%) less voters is astonishing for a kind of incumbent.
I didn't foresee that at all. I thought they would at worst remain in the 2020 ballpark. And had they, they would have won a comprehensive victory.
Trumps win, effectively came because his declined but avoided collapse.
There are multiple issues for this. I suspect no big economic offer is a huge mistake. Likewise, as indicated the stance taken in Palestine (encouraging a genocide) and Ukraine (spending money on a war while ordinary Americans suffer) has undermined them.
One final quirk, Harris could have won the EC without winning the popular vote. In fact, if uniform swing was adopted, she probably WOULD have won EC with a narrow Trump win (say 0.2% Trump). It throws open possibilities, and again potentially shows how close these elections often are.
That's how I saw them winning too. Dems essentially getting close to 2020, narrowly winning popular vote but carrying states.
