Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[Emlynsqueakyvoice]

This is pure conspiracy theory.
Provide evidence of this or absolutely get in the bin.

At last you are working this clown out...

 

[davek]

Not gonna lie, Dave, that’s a really weird way of framing things.

‘She’s really lucky that women are terrified that the other party want to restrict their human rights’.

You know what I mean by it. As a presidential candidate it covers over a multitude of deficiencies she has as a prospective leader of the United States.

 

[dublinbluenose]

 

[Chewbacca]

View attachment 280407

He really is a pathetic excuse of a man

 

[emir]

I have a good grasp of empirical data.

All this tells you is that more republicans have voted earlier than they usually would. A higher proportion of republicans voting earlier would also have an impact on the proportion of republican voters on election day. Unless there has been a disproportionate amount of republican registrations when compared to democratic ones.

That being said, all you are ultimately talking about is the timing of the votes.

If a higher proportion of republicans are voting early relative to the past, you can’t read that trump will win in a landslide because he’ll see a swing on election day too.

You are basically double counting with that inference.

I’d be worried, if republicans are voting early and this isn’t showing up relatively in the early voting results, then that will be a headwind for trump.

Biden got 45% in 2020. Ignoring Selzer, Harris is the same even with a surge in republican early votes. That should worry trump.

It's not just about early voting, somehow you conveniently fixated only on early voting.

Republican voter registrations is far more up compared to Democrat voter registrations across most states. If we take Iowa for example, it's looking really rough for Kamala.



Empirical data is against Kamala in almost every state.

 

[neil999]

BOGGGUSSSS...EMPIRICALLLLLL

 

[bluestevon]

Aside from the fact that voter fraud is very low and voter ID doesn’t really have a meaningful impact on it, it’s because not everyone has the necessary ID. The lack of ID disproportionately affects the poor, people of colour, old people and young people. The lost common form of photo ID is a drivers licence or a passport which as you can imagine excludes a very large proportion of potential voters.

There’s a cost associated with it which again affects a large number of voters.

It’s not about fraud. It’s away for people to suppress demographics that vote against them.

In reality though any voting system should require photo ID otherwise it's quite correctly open to massive criticism for potential fraud.

 

[emir]

Stop using scientific words as if you believe in empirical data and the scientific process. You don't. You believe that dinosaurs coexisted with humans, so you get to use words like "magic" and "myth" and "that book told me how to think." If you want to use bigger words in order to sound smart I'll allow you to also use "thaumaturgical" and "sortilege."

I don't trust science as enough as I trust God's word.

 

[Rita_Poon]

I don't trust science as enough as I trust God's word.

shame diction isn't trusted either.

 

[bluestevon]

Just to be clear as I don’t think you are understanding. I’ve asked you explicitly explain why we should discount the poll in question. Given the track record, and assuming no previous allegations of accepting bribes, why do you believe that this poll is incorrect.

For the record, this link, in conjunction with said poll would have me very worried as a trump supporter.

She's never been one who has downgrades trump polling data unlike some obviously have, she's unless something changed or she's dropped the ball badly in weighting a very very neutral reliable pollster

 

[JP5]

In reality though any voting system should require photo ID otherwise it's quite correctly open to massive criticism for potential fraud.

How prevalent is voter fraud?

 

[JP5]

It's not just about early voting, somehow you conveniently fixated only on early voting.

Republican voter registrations is far more up compared to Democrat voter registrations across most states. If we take Iowa for example, it's looking really rough for Kamala.



Empirical data is against Kamala in almost every state.

Given you like empirical data, why have you used a forecast model?

From this source:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/technology/seth-keshel-2024-election-trump.html

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Look, not proud of the take but nothing I can do about it now. I'm on the record endorsing Trump in 2016 and Aiden McGeady the entire time he was at Everton. And that's only the tip of my take iceberg

I’ve got a Tesla ffs

 

[verreauxi]

I don't trust science as enough as I trust God's word.

Then don't use science terminology (e.g., empirical, data) to try to win an argument. Just say things like "God told me Trump will win" or "this poll is bogus because Jesus said so."

 

[bluestevon]

Oh, why did no one else think of that?

To be fair mate, no one has so far in the US , soon as they bring in a host of neocons onto the team they are guaranteeing it continues - that includes trumps first term btw