Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[verreauxi]

Just to be clear as I don’t think you are understanding. I’ve asked you explicitly explain why we should discount the poll in question. Given the track record, and assuming no previous allegations of accepting bribes, why do you believe that this poll is incorrect.

For the record, this link, in conjunction with said poll would have me very worried as a trump supporter.

I don't think the poll is bogus (the pollsters are respected) but it doesn't line up with other polls, so who knows what is going on.

One interesting thing to note: the present poll asked 808 people last week and obtained Harris by 3 pts; but in September the very same pollsters asked 656 voters and it showed Trump by 4pts over Harris, and in June they asked 632 voters and it showed Trump with 18pts over Biden; in February it was 640 people polled with Trump having a 15pt lead over Biden but also with 15% of those polled saying they would vote for someone else. It is not clear who they were sampling or if they were repeat-sampling the same people or where these people lived (Des Moine versus rural areas).

Decent analysis here:

A much-watched poll from Iowa points to a Harris landslide

It is probably a fluke

www.economist.com

Early voting, alone, can't tell you if a poll is bogus so I'm not sure why Jesusaurus is talking about that. Not sure how to make sense of these numbers below.

 

[emir]

Just a quick one, was there any reason why Democrats especially might have wanted to avoid congregating in one place on one specific day, say a line for voting booth, back end of 2020? A reason that might not be a factor in 2024? Or does the word EMPIRICAL not cover that level of detail, even written in capitals?

Oh look it's an another gotcha question.

Do you wanna also check the 2016 data as well and compare it to this year too?

 

[JP5]

Just a quick one, was there any reason why Democrats especially might have wanted to avoid congregating in one place on one specific day, say a line for voting booth, back end of 2020? A reason that might not be a factor in 2024? Or does the word EMPIRICAL not cover that level of detail, even written in capitals?

This is my point. There was a big shift to republicans on election day because a larger proportion of democrats had voted via mail/early. Said shift is unlikely to occurs again…

 

[RAFUH]

Hmm i could easily label you as a Hamas terrorist supporting/Israel hating fanatic. Obviously in a conflict wrongs will be committed by both parties.

Even the Allies committed dastardly deeds in World War Two, it still didn't mean that their cause wasn't justified. Trump is far from perfect but he will be a great supporter of Israel if he wins the election.

I’m more concerned that as President of the US, he won’t be a supporter let alone a great supporter of a large swath of Americans.

 

[verreauxi]

Because I'm looking at the actual EMPIRICAL data and this poll is in direct contradiction with the empirical data we have. I don't care how reputable a pollster can be but if your data is in direct contradiction with actual empirical data, then it's worthless.

You may ask what is the empirical data. Well it's the party registration, early voting data, mail ballot requests and ballot return figures. Republicans have far outperformed the Dems in terms of all of this in every state possible. In Iowa, early voting shows a 12 point shift towards Republicans since 2020. That is even more telling as the Trump low-propensity voters vote disproportionately on Election day. Having said that, I haven't even touched base on the early voting figures in the other states, which pretty much shows a landslide towards Trump.

Stop using scientific words as if you believe in empirical data and the scientific process. You don't. You believe that dinosaurs coexisted with humans, so you get to use words like "magic" and "myth" and "that book told me how to think." If you want to use bigger words in order to sound smart I'll allow you to also use "thaumaturgical" and "sortilege."

 

[Prevenger17]

can’t read his posts but he actively advocated for trump against Clinton in a now locked thread

So did I tbf. 8 years of evidence has changed my mind somewhat

 

[Harryflashman]

So did I tbf. 8 years of evidence has changed my mind somewhat

So honest question, I’m not having a go , what about him appealed ? I can’t process it

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

So did I tbf. 8 years of evidence has changed my mind somewhat

Not sure if serious

 

[Prevenger17]

So honest question, I’m not having a go , what about him appealed ? I can’t process it

Not sure if serious

Absolutely serious. I was more anti-Hillary than pro-Trump, but I thought Trump might have been a sort of benign idiot who would be kept on a short leash by the Republican party while the parties got their collective acts together. I didn't envision him reshaping the Republicans into the faeces-eating lunatic cult we see today.

 

[WA Toffee]

Can you explain explicitly how this poll is bogus?

I’ve seen the pollsters track record and it’s as accurate as these things get.

Poll that supports my guy - must share with everyone
Poll that doesn't support my guy - bogus

Didn't you know that's how it works?

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Absolutely serious. I was more anti-Hillary than pro-Trump, but I thought Trump might have been a sort of benign idiot who would be kept on a short leash by the Republican party while the parties got their collective acts together. I didn't envision him reshaping the Republicans into the faeces-eating lunatic cult we see today.

Fair enough, I did similar with Dyche tbh - nearly as catastrophic

 

[BlueTX]

Poll that supports my guy - must share with everyone
Poll that doesn't support my guy - bogus

Didn't you know that's how it works?

 

[neil999]

Make ameruca toothless again...what an idiot

 

[bluestevon]

The fear would be that Kamala Harris would be more of a pushover i suppose. Of course those fears could also be unfounded.

A pushover would have no chance if standing up to most of the parties Sen/Con but especially APAC

 

[Prevenger17]

Fair enough, I did similar with Dyche tbh - nearly as catastrophic

Look, not proud of the take but nothing I can do about it now. I'm on the record endorsing Trump in 2016 and Aiden McGeady the entire time he was at Everton. And that's only the tip of my take iceberg