Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[emir]

Yeh, they all paused when polled and thought,’what about the price of my health care’

You talk shiz

Right wing politics is not the same across different nations, you understand that right?

 

[JP5]

Because the poll is not grounded in reality at all. The early voting in Iowa heavily favors the Republicans, even more so compared to 2016 and 2020.

Can you show me how it isn’t grounded in reality? I asked you to explain explicitly why. Not repeat that it was bogus in a different way.

 

[emir]

Can you show me how it isn’t grounded in reality? I asked you to explain explicitly why. Not repeat that it was bogus in a different way.

This is why:

 

[Blue 1]

Genuine question: Why does the Democratic Party push so hard to strike down laws requiring ID when casting a vote?

As far as I can see, the Republican Party has been very vocal in its wish for every state to require ID when casting a vote, but they've been unsuccessful in their attempts.

Isn't it just common sense? Is there a good reason that I'm missing out on?

The problem is not so much the use of ID but agreeing which ID is acceptable. For instance, Texas Republicans wanted to allow gun registration as ID but not allow student ID, which is an obvious attempt to game the system in their favour.

It's also trying to fix a problem which doesn't really exist. Voter fraud is so scarce as to be virtually non-existent.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Right wing politics is not the same across different nations, you understand that right?

So, they still don’t pause and consider their healthcare when asked about the USA election, obviously

 

[JP5]

This is why:

Just to be clear as I don’t think you are understanding. I’ve asked you explicitly explain why we should discount the poll in question. Given the track record, and assuming no previous allegations of accepting bribes, why do you believe that this poll is incorrect.

For the record, this link, in conjunction with said poll would have me very worried as a trump supporter.

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

….Trump still odds-on favourite but not as short as he was a few days ago, it’s closer in the betting.

Harris really cheap now, with the high quality favourable polls

Feels like a couple of large punts one big bet in particular , £38m apparently, really pushed it in trumps favour . Following that an awful lot of people have sought to take advantage of the generous odds on Harris and have moved it back a little .

regardless of the result the polls have made a mockery of the price on trump and as we get closer to election day they seem more and more questionable.

they say that but there’s 3 billion being bet on polymarket alone. You’d need an awful lot more to influence the odds

 

[davek]

Someone's got it massively wrong.

Just to be clear as I don’t think you are understanding. I’ve asked you explicitly explain why we should discount the poll in question. Given the track record, and assuming no previous allegations of accepting bribes, why do you believe that this poll is incorrect.

For the record, this link, in conjunction with said poll would have me very worried as a trump supporter.

Emerson is ranked higher than Selzer in reputable polling circles - again, 'apparently' - and their final poll in Iowa has Trump taking it by a big margin.

Someone's got it massively wrong.

November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43% - Emerson Polling

Trump leads among both men and women in the Hawkeye State A new Emerson College…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

 

[neil999]

Feels like trending back towards harris...

 

[JP5]

Someone's got it massively wrong.

Emerson is ranked higher than Selzer in reputable polling circles - again, 'apparently' - and their final poll in Iowa has Trump taking it by a big margin.

Someone's got it massively wrong.

November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43% - Emerson Polling

Trump leads among both men and women in the Hawkeye State A new Emerson College…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

Interesting that undecided lean to Harris by 2-1.

Also interesting that the cohort aged 50+ represented 60% of the poll. When in reality it represents c36% of the population.

And the white cohort was also over-represented by c5%.

Would be interested to see the other polls split in comparison.

My guess is the differences lie there.

 

[davek]

Interesting that undecided lean to Harris by 2-1.

Also interesting that the cohort aged 50+ represented 60% of the poll. When in reality it represents c36% of the population.

And the white cohort was also over-represented by c5%.

Would be interested to see the other polls split in comparison.

My guess is the differences lie there.

IMO Harris will take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and that'll be that.

She's very lucky to have the abortion issue to get her over the line because she's a dreadful candidate who's record with the Biden administration would have buried her any other election.

 

[JP5]

IMO Harris will take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and that'll be that.

She's very lucky to have the abortion issue to get her over the line because she's a dreadful candidate who's record with the Biden administration would have buried her any other election.

Not gonna lie, Dave, that’s a really weird way of framing things.

‘She’s really lucky that women are terrified that the other party want to restrict their human rights’.

 

[Tim's tourettes]

Getting a little bit more optimistic now but I just can't see him accepting defeat....

 

[GoldenToffee]

Feels like trending back towards harris...

At this point everybody has their mind up and polls mean absolutely nothing. It's really a coin toss imo. It'll get ugly if Harris wins but a tight margin as Trumpety Trump will not accept it and there will be hit unrest.

 

[emir]

Just to be clear as I don’t think you are understanding. I’ve asked you explicitly explain why we should discount the poll in question. Given the track record, and assuming no previous allegations of accepting bribes, why do you believe that this poll is incorrect.

For the record, this link, in conjunction with said poll would have me very worried as a trump supporter.

Because I'm looking at the actual EMPIRICAL data and this poll is in direct contradiction with the empirical data we have. I don't care how reputable a pollster can be but if your data is in direct contradiction with actual empirical data, then it's worthless.

You may ask what is the empirical data. Well it's the party registration, early voting data, mail ballot requests and ballot return figures. Republicans have far outperformed the Dems in terms of all of this in every state possible. In Iowa, early voting shows a 12 point shift towards Republicans since 2020. That is even more telling as the Trump low-propensity voters vote disproportionately on Election day. Having said that, I haven't even touched base on the early voting figures in the other states, which pretty much shows a landslide towards Trump.


I could be a Trumpist but if the empirical data showed a clear Democrat advantage and if the best pollster to mankind predicted a Trump landslide, I would also very much discard the poll.