Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

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davek said:
Which pollsters are you referring to here? If they're not reputable national-based ones then wtf is it worth getting excited over for.

I suspect you're referring to a gaggle of hillbilly no mark polling companies that have zero credibility

IMO the 'crooked poll's' story is a fiction based on taking a number of the no mark pollsters and saying a conspiracy to deny Harris is being hatched.

There's crackpots on both sides of this election contest. Anyone saying otherwise is naive or just a little bit too subjective.
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1) stop with the both sidesism. You're more intelligent than that. it's a false equivalence and you know it
2) The issue is only 25% of people pay attention enough to know what a hillbilly no mark polling company is. So if it gets aggregated with better polls, a story can be created.

If you don't think the GOP is out trying to use the political equivalent of the dark arts to win this election, including voter suppression tactics (which this is a subset of), I don't know what to tell you
 
Xizor said:
I know, I'm saying the same thing to the post saying there was apparently a lot of money being put on it.
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I don’t know how much stock should be put in the gambling markets. A ton of money ended up on there being a massive Red Wave in 2022, and the election didn’t play out that way.

I honestly have no idea how it goes. I still don’t think pollsters have really gotten their head around how to properly poll millennials and younger, as they generally don’t pick up their phones. I’m quite confident that Trump isn’t going to win it in a landslide. But beyond that, any of the other scenarios are feasible to me.
 
davek said:
I disagree. This is the new normal in US politics, and is likely to remain so for some time to come.
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So it's just a new form of politics as usual. Which is different rules.

For example, a case could be made, in all seriousness, that Trump is the incumbent. He's been on the national stage for 10 years. Harris is a relative newcomer to the national stage. Otherwise, why would everyone be clamoring to introduce Harris to the electorate in only 3 months.

This is NOT a normal election. The "incumbent" is a relative unknown and is speaking about moving the country forward, away from the mess of Trumpism. The challenger in this race everyone has known exactly who he is for 10 years, and was a sitting president for 4 of those years
 
TN Toffee said:
I don’t know how much stock should be put in the gambling markets. A ton of money ended up on there being a massive Red Wave in 2022, and the election didn’t play out that way.

I honestly have no idea how it goes. I still don’t think pollsters have really gotten their head around how to properly poll millennials and younger, as they generally don’t pick up their phones. I quite confident that Trump isn’t going to win it in a landslide. But beyond that, any of the other scenarios are feasible to me.
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I tend to agree with this. I am a young Gen Xer and have never responded to a poll text or call. Ever. And I can't imagine anyone below the age of 55 answering a poll

Could Trump squeak through in 2024 like he did in 2016? Certainly possible.

Can Trump turn blue states red? Absolutely zero percent chance of this happening
 
bluerobert said:
It’s probably lost on you mate if you’re actually Finnish but Liverpool is a very working class city and is a particularly political city with big ties to the Labour Party. Being right wing in Liverpool is seen as being bad wool behaviour, the majority of the forum are from Liverpool, Ireland, Wales, Scotland all very left wing areas of the UK. It’s not that people disrespect you the majority of the forum just flat out don’t agree with what you believe. Finland has previous of aligning themselves with the right wing. If all these people are telling you you’re wrong, like 99% of the forum either we’re all sheeple or maybe just maybe you should turn your gaze inward?

Every social media space is a microcosm, this is very left wing. I’m sure in some other circles you’re in your points of view are reinforced. Here people just think you’re a bad wool
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Does it make you uncomfortable that i dont need other people here to reinforce my point of views? Arent different viewpoints ok? 🤔
 
Pittsburgh Footy said:
I tend to agree with this. I am a young Gen Xer and have never responded to a poll text or call. Ever. And I can't imagine anyone below the age of 55 answering a poll

Could Trump squeak through in 2024 like he did in 2016? Certainly possible.

Can Trump turn blue states red? Absolutely zero percent chance of this happening
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The other thing polls probably don’t do a good job of assessing is prospective turnout. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that, percentage wise, the under-40 vote is going to go OVERWHELMINGLY to Harris. But, turnout is going to make all the difference in the swing states where simply convincing a few thousand of those under 40’s to be bothered to go vote could actually decide the entire election.

That fact alone highlights the utter absurdity of the electoral college. An election where 150 million people will vote probably hinges almost entirely on getting several thousand extra people from a specific age group to cast ballots.
 
If Harris can pull this off (and let's hope she does for the sake of humanity as a whole) I envison a raft of emails to Republicans on Nov 6th asking for donations to mount a legal challenge about 'another stolen election '.
I bet he earns a ton from it as well (alongside some 'stop the 2nd steal ' merchandise that will have been made in a Chinese sweat shop).
 
Tim's tourettes said:
If Harris can pull this off (and let's hope she does for the sake of humanity as a whole) I envison a raft of emails to Republicans on Nov 6th asking for donations to mount a legal challenge about 'another stolen election '.
I bet he earns a ton from it as well (alongside some 'stop the 2nd steal ' merchandise that will have been made in a Chinese sweat shop).
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Pretty sure I’ve read that he’s already got his legal team loaded and ready to go should he lose.

His people are already spinning, that the only way he can lose is through fraud.
 
COYBL25 said:
Pretty sure I’ve read that he’s already got his legal team loaded and ready to go should he lose.

His people are already spinning, that the only way he can lose is through fraud.
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Which is fascinating as a good number of his lawyers from last go-round have had to pay out large fees/fines and several have had their law licenses suspended or revoked.
 
TN Toffee said:
I don’t know how much stock should be put in the gambling markets. A ton of money ended up on there being a massive Red Wave in 2022, and the election didn’t play out that way.

I honestly have no idea how it goes. I still don’t think pollsters have really gotten their head around how to properly poll millennials and younger, as they generally don’t pick up their phones. I’m quite confident that Trump isn’t going to win it in a landslide. But beyond that, any of the other scenarios are feasible to me.
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I'm 47, I think the landline cut off is 50 years old now.
I dont answer unsolicited calls.
I receive so much garbage email it's off putting. Yea Sherrod, I get it, your'e in a close race a thousand miles away.
I get poll emails but there's no way I'm touching them, who knows what they are.
I get I live in MA so it's a foregone conclusion but still. How do pollsters even know where people live? is it area codes on cell phones?

No idea how polling works and not surprised it's wrong so often.
 
TheFinnFan said:
Does it make you uncomfortable that i dont need other people here to reinforce my point of views? Arent different viewpoints ok? 🤔
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It doesn’t make me uncomfortable at all, I welcome differing points of view. You were the one asking why everyone was being mean to you and I gave you an answer. I couldn’t care less what your points of view are.

For somebody who doesn’t need people to reinforce their point of view you don’t half cry about it when people challenge you
 
bluerobert said:
It doesn’t make me uncomfortable at all, I welcome differing points of view. You were the one asking why everyone was being mean to you and I gave you an answer. I couldn’t care less what your points of view are.

For somebody who doesn’t need people to reinforce their point of view you don’t half cry about it when people challenge you
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me "crying" about those fingering weapons isnt serious..thought it was obvious to everyone😄
 
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