Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race
- Thread starter Ruairi77
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tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
will laugh a lot if he goes full dirty protest on Trump
carolinablue232
Player Valuation: £70m
I hope he’s just doing it to expose Trump/get under his skin. He has to know he can’t actually win this thing.
Alan Whittle
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He’s Trump without the Trump.
One step closer to the matrix
The sad reality is that the only thing that a third party candiate can guarantee is that they will not win the presidency and will weaken the chances of the candidate they most closely align with on policies.
Occasionally, a third party becomes one of the two major parties through a presidential election (the last time it happened was in 1856, when the Republicans supplanted the Whigs, who had withered and endorsed the ticket of the American Party): such an election is called a realigning election, as it causes a realignment in the party system; according to scholars,[citation needed] there have been six party systems so far. Only once did one of the two major parties come third in an election, but that did not cause a realignment (in 1912 the Progressive Party surpassed the Republicans, but the party quickly disappeared and the Republicans regained their major party status).
In the 59 presidential elections since 1788, third party or independent candidates have won at least 5.0% of the vote or garnered electoral votes 12 times (21%); this does not count George Washington, who was elected as an independent in 1788–1780 and 1792, but who largely supported Federalist policies and was supported by Federalists. The last third-party candidate to win a state was George Wallace of the American Independent Party in 1968, while the last third-party candidate to win more than 5.0% of the vote was Ross Perot, who ran as an independent and as the standard-bearer of the Reform Party in 1992 and 1996, respectively; the closest since was Gary Johnson in 2016, who gained 3.3% of the vote running as the Libertarian nominee. The most recent third-party candidates to receive an electoral vote were Libertarian Ron Paul and Sioux Nation independent Faith Spotted Eagle who received a vote each from faithless electors in 2016.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
This is a touch strong. Maybe Perot has a shot in 1992, if he doesn't exit and re-enter the race. Maybe he doesn't. Gallup had Perot ahead in June, and in a dead heat with Bush when withdrawing in July, before re-entering the race later. We'll never know.
What I can say with near certainty is that this third-party candidate will be a 'wasted vote' in the sense you describe. Much of Biden's support is tactical rather than genuine, and unlikely to be lured away by sincere preferences. 'Never Trump or Trumpism!' is probably #1 on the agenda for most of West's natural base.
Christie has his own ethics issues but so far he seems the only GOP candidate to consistently go after Trump’s.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
That and Trump having no concern whether he infected him, a high risk person, with Covid who was then so sick he got last rights.
“We need a president who won’t flinch, who won’t try to cut deals with our values”
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