Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

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Bruce Wayne said:
Aside from the whole tribalist aspect of just wanting the Dems to win, there isn't much positive to take from his performance. He's arguably the most powerful man in the world, and it's very unlikely that he's going to get better throughout his tenure (and could get quite a bit worse).
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I posted this in 2020
I agree that his stutter is an important factor but for me it is less his getting the words right than the meandering. He was always prone to it but, at least to me, it seems worse and he used to be much sharper at responses. This article covers some of my worries

Joe Biden Is Old​

Thursday’s debate made it painfully clear that Biden is not the candidate he used to be.
slate.com
slate.com

I agree about Sanders and Trump‘s issues though - I basically just can’t get comfortable with the idea that our presidential choice comes down three septuagenarians but I guess I’m going to have to.
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I’m even more uncomfortable than I was then but more resigned.

And there are more reasons than tribalism to vote for Biden for me - just on the US side before you even touch on world issues there is democracy, rule of law, abortion, climate change, economic policy etc.
 
LinekersLegs said:
I posted this in 2020

I’m even more uncomfortable than I was then but more resigned.

And there are more reasons than tribalism to vote for Biden for me - just on the US side before you even touch on world issues there is democracy, rule of law, abortion, climate change, economic policy etc.
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Oh for sure, and I get that his administration is/would be infinitely more than him. On that basis alone it's worth voting for him. Symbolically it looks awful though.
 
LinekersLegs said:
Even if Obama phoned him and said “ It is time Joe” he is unlikely to step down - Obama advised him not to run in 2016 and I think he’s always regretted listening to him.
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Jill and Beau are the only voices I think he would listen to, and one of them is gone.

dylsexicbleu said:
If they wait until as late as the convention it can only be Kamala who replaces him. Even now I think we can all but rule out Newsom. You cannot step over Kamala Harris for yet another straight, white guy as the nominee. It's likely between Harris, Whitmer and Buttigieg if Biden steps aside right now. Even then it's gonna be a messy transition, very messy and legally dubious. Expect the courts to become involved.
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You absolutely can, if that's who can win. In fact, probability of winning is the first dimension a delegate would be likely to consider. A candidate can't make good on most promises if they lose.
 
Martin Alvito said:
Jill and Beau are the only voices I think he would listen to, and one of them is gone.


You absolutely can, if that's who can win. In fact, probability of winning is the first dimension a delegate would be likely to consider. A candidate can't make good on most promises if they lose.
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I’m not sure how or why Jill hasn’t already stepped in. Seems like they’re worried about legacy but that legacy gets worse the longer they keep at it. Dying on the throne isn’t a victory.
 
Martin Alvito said:
Jill and Beau are the only voices I think he would listen to, and one of them is gone.


You absolutely can, if that's who can win. In fact, probability of winning is the first dimension a delegate would be likely to consider. A candidate can't make good on most promises if they lose.
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Dems need to win 85% or so of black voters to win a Presidential election. Many younger black male voters already seem to be leaning towards Trump. Newsom will have to win a Presidential election whilst the most partisan of Dem voters, black females, also drift away from him. Good luck with that.

I can just about imagine the scenario you paint here about delegates only voting for a candidate they think would win. However, I think it's fairly obvious Kamala Harris will not sit idly by whilst she is overlooked for the nominee position. A whole nasty mess will break out in the Dem party just a couple of months before election day. That's not a position of strength for the Dem candidate.
 
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I recall when Obama flubbed the first debate with Romney and Dems were all in a panic. I also recall when at this point in 2016 the pollsters had Hillary Clinton at 80% likely to win.

Last night's debate audience was down 33% from the first debate in 2020. I already felt this anecdotally in my small part of the world as there are virtually no political signs, flags, or new bumper stickers to be seen, and hardly anyone talks about the race. Folks are not engaged and, most likely, entrenched.
 
BlueTX said:
I recall when Obama flubbed the first debate with Romney and Dems were all in a panic. I also recall when at this point in 2016 the pollsters had Hillary Clinton at 80% likely to win.

Last night's debate audience was down 33% from the first debate in 2020. I already felt this anecdotally in my small part of the world as there are virtually no political signs, flags, or new bumper stickers to be seen, and hardly anyone talks about the race. Folks are not engaged and, most likely, entrenched.
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Polls, at least so far, showing little change. Two weeks of "Biden is too old" front pages might change that but possibly it is already baked in - both the candidates weaknesses have been on display for a while.

 
LinekersLegs said:
Polls, at least so far, showing little change. Two weeks of "Biden is too old" front pages might change that but possibly it is already baked in - both the candidates weaknesses have been on display for a while.

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Did you honestly think there was going to be a 5 to 10 point swing in polls after last night? Nope. Voting intention doesn't usually work like that. Trump will most likely have gained marginally with undecideds. It's when you add to this the occasional Dem voter who, after last night, will be less likely to vote for Biden in November that the significance of last night should show itself. Unless we get a further disastrous meltdown by Biden swing states will, as usual, be won by a point or two. That's why they are swing states.
 
LinekersLegs said:
Polls, at least so far, showing little change. Two weeks of "Biden is too old" front pages might change that but possibly it is already baked in - both the candidates weaknesses have been on display for a while.

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Those whose livelihood comes from the political horse race live in a world of optics, narratives, and other "bad word not typed" that is not of the everyday world. I absolutely think you are right that this election has far less elasticity than most in recent history. The candidates are well-known. Those who might switch votes have already likely decided (ex. GOP women pissed about Roe).

It's all about turnout. But the nattering nabobs need more than just turnout to yammer about for 5 months.
 
BlueTX said:
I recall when Obama flubbed the first debate with Romney and Dems were all in a panic. I also recall when at this point in 2016 the pollsters had Hillary Clinton at 80% likely to win.

Last night's debate audience was down 33% from the first debate in 2020. I already felt this anecdotally in my small part of the world as there are virtually no political signs, flags, or new bumper stickers to be seen, and hardly anyone talks about the race. Folks are not engaged and, most likely, entrenched.
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Oh here it starts again...Joe wasn't that bad...he still can win....second debate is more important and so on
 
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