carolinablue232
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As things stand, it looks that way to me.
Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race
- Thread starter Ruairi77
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I live in NYC. In work today NOBODY mentioned the debate at all. I imagine most people didn’t even know it was happening, or if they did, it was just a passing interest. I feel like if you’re gonna vote for Trump, you gonna vote for Trump and if you’re gonna vote for Biden you’re going to vote for Biden. Everybody knows what they’re getting this time round. At least New York. You have to be a particularly major ass hat to vote for Trump.
I concur.
I hate how close that is, my God, if Orange man gets in, I dont even wanna think about what happens.
A four-way "conversation" of NYT columnists. The comments by Jamelle Bouie are quite well thought-out regarding Biden stepping down and Harris stepping in. I don't find NYT columnists to be very worthwhile, but this fellow is worth paying attention to.
Excerpts:
Jamelle Bouie: I’ll be the fly in the ointment of this emerging consensus that Biden should drop out. I don’t think one has to excuse or apologize for the president’s poor debate performance to also observe that the hyperventilating panic obscures the extent to which there are serious, perhaps fatal downsides to Biden leaving the race at this stage.
***
Bouie: First, in the same way that George McGovern’s decision to replace Thomas Eagleton vindicated Richard Nixon’s argument that the Democrats were in too much disarray to trust with the presidency, a Biden decision to leave the race at this late stage vindicates the Republican argument, deployed during the debate, that the United States under Biden is unstable and insecure. Consider, as well, the pressure for Biden not just to leave the race but to leave the presidency as well. It does not make sense to say, “Joe Biden is not so enfeebled that he cannot be president but is enfeebled enough that he cannot run for re-election.” There will be calls for him to retire outright.
***
Bouie: I think the only way to answer this question is by making suppositions that ignore the reality of contingency. If we can somehow keep every single condition the same and simply swap Biden for Gretchen Whitmer or Andy Beshear or Wes Moore, then sure, they could win. But that’s not how this works. The process will raise problems. The challenge of jump-starting a national campaign will raise problems. Critically, none of these people are a Generic Democrat. They will have unforeseen challenges. The question is whether those unforeseen challenges are less challenging than the ones we have in front of us. And I’m simply not confident or certain enough in my powers of prediction to say, definitively, that they will be.
Excerpts:
Jamelle Bouie: I’ll be the fly in the ointment of this emerging consensus that Biden should drop out. I don’t think one has to excuse or apologize for the president’s poor debate performance to also observe that the hyperventilating panic obscures the extent to which there are serious, perhaps fatal downsides to Biden leaving the race at this stage.
***
Bouie: First, in the same way that George McGovern’s decision to replace Thomas Eagleton vindicated Richard Nixon’s argument that the Democrats were in too much disarray to trust with the presidency, a Biden decision to leave the race at this late stage vindicates the Republican argument, deployed during the debate, that the United States under Biden is unstable and insecure. Consider, as well, the pressure for Biden not just to leave the race but to leave the presidency as well. It does not make sense to say, “Joe Biden is not so enfeebled that he cannot be president but is enfeebled enough that he cannot run for re-election.” There will be calls for him to retire outright.
***
Bouie: I think the only way to answer this question is by making suppositions that ignore the reality of contingency. If we can somehow keep every single condition the same and simply swap Biden for Gretchen Whitmer or Andy Beshear or Wes Moore, then sure, they could win. But that’s not how this works. The process will raise problems. The challenge of jump-starting a national campaign will raise problems. Critically, none of these people are a Generic Democrat. They will have unforeseen challenges. The question is whether those unforeseen challenges are less challenging than the ones we have in front of us. And I’m simply not confident or certain enough in my powers of prediction to say, definitively, that they will be.
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www.nytimes.com
Vile.
FrenchDarrenBent
Player Valuation: £20m
We find a more trustworthy indicator of how the election stands in Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he winst the election (as it stands, Arizona and Georgia should go republican). For the moment, it's not good.
2024 Pennsylvania Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Pennsylvania Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
However, I wonder how American pollsters are accounting for the 'Trump effect (Trump outperformed his polling average in 2016 and 2020). If they changed their samples (weighing trump-voters more heavily) it might affect accuracy and we might be in for another surprise come election day.
For example: Belgian pollsters tried to factor in 'underpolled' right wing voters in their polls. The actual results were widely off the mark and the right wing party got 4 percent less than expected
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
In the UK election we have a phrase amongst the political commentariat doing the rounds about Starmer carrying a Ming vase from one side of the room to the other successfully (to avoid any calamity that'd snatch victory away). Biden's just fallen arse over tit and smashed his Ming vase into a million pieces...but there's still Democratic supporters on here over the last 24 hours who think the situation is recoverable.
You can be certain the DNC will be taking steps to block his name getting on the ticket.
There is no way that Biden wont slip up on countless occasions between now and November. They know that.
Despite Newsom's support yesterday he was very cute in his words. Basically: "What sort of party would we be if we gave up on our president after 90 minutes?". Which both underlines him as a loyalist...but crucially leaves it hanging if Biden repeats his mistakes again in the near future.
You can be certain the DNC will be taking steps to block his name getting on the ticket.
There is no way that Biden wont slip up on countless occasions between now and November. They know that.
Despite Newsom's support yesterday he was very cute in his words. Basically: "What sort of party would we be if we gave up on our president after 90 minutes?". Which both underlines him as a loyalist...but crucially leaves it hanging if Biden repeats his mistakes again in the near future.
GOP must be praying Biden stays in the race, at least until the convention.
A lot of damage control around, so much astroturfing bots going crazy on social media from both sides.
Guy is walking corpse, but its (probably) too late now to replace him so only thing left for Dems is to pray.
Seems to me Dems deluded themselves as much as they tried to delude people about "how sharp" is Joe behind the scenes. Now Emperor lost his clothes for all to see and its panic around.
Even NY Times editorial board asked him to quit.
Guy is walking corpse, but its (probably) too late now to replace him so only thing left for Dems is to pray.
Seems to me Dems deluded themselves as much as they tried to delude people about "how sharp" is Joe behind the scenes. Now Emperor lost his clothes for all to see and its panic around.
Even NY Times editorial board asked him to quit.
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