Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[LinekersLegs]

@Pittsburgh Footy, @Prevenger17 I don’t disagree on the risks of Harris - think the Biden camp shares them which is one reason why we are where we are.

@Martin Alvito you are right, “nominate” is the wrong language, I should have said “publicly support”. Because he couldn’t visibly support another candidates run - at the very least it would call into question his own judgement in selecting her as his VP.

I think if Biden team had liked/been more confident in Harris they would have had Biden not running for relection (although not stepping down so Harris could campaign easier) and go ahead with a primary contest with her and a full suite of other candidate. Then let the chips fall where they would hope that any unpleasantness in the primary between candidates would be forgotten by the general.

I think the Biden camps fear in leaving it to the convection would a) be not long enough for the party divisions to be memory holed b) that it wouldn’t just be a Newsom/Harris fight c) they are in denial about how bad the optics are on Biden’s age/behavior.

 

[LinekersLegs]

This is the concern with Harris. Fair or not. I happen to like her and think she has big balls - she would also be great against Trump in this regard as Newsom would. But many people, for whatever reason, don't like her

I’ve had a lot of expsure to both Harris and Newsom given they are from my state,

Unfortunately neither really has that “like to go for a beer with them” popularity that seems to be a requirement for a significant % of presidential voters.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

@Pittsburgh Footy, @Prevenger17 I don’t disagree on the risks of Harris - think the Biden camp shares them which is one reason why we are where we are.

@Martin Alvito you are right, “nominate” is the wrong language, I should have said “publicly support”. Because he couldn’t visibly support another candidates run - at the very least it would call into question his own judgement in selecting her as his VP.

I think if Biden team had liked/been more confident in Harris they would have had Biden not running for relection (although not stepping down so Harris could campaign easier) and go ahead with a primary contest with her and a full suite of other candidate. Then let the chips fall where they would hope that any unpleasantness in the primary between candidates would be forgotten by the general.

I think the Biden camps fear in leaving it to the convection would a) be not long enough for the party divisions to be memory holed b) that it wouldn’t just be a Newsom/Harris fight c) they are in denial about how bad the optics are on Biden’s age/behavior.

With respect to your last point, I think last night was a big wake up call.

Democrats are calling for Biden's head today - from all corners of the party. I'm reading it - and watching it - from everyone

 

[LinekersLegs]

It would be interesting to see the candidate determined at the convention. When was the last time a presidential candidate was determined at the convention rather than going in with a majority of delegates? 1968?

4 Contested Conventions in Presidential Election History | HISTORY

Having a single candidate by the time of the convention has been a key stepping stone for a party’s victory. But it hasn't always worked out that way.

www.history.com

For all the pomp and circumstance that once surrounded presidential party conventions, they’re rarely all that dramatic today. In fact, the last time Democrats faced a tight delegate race was in 1980, when Jimmy Carter narrowly edged out Ted Kennedy for the nomination, avoiding a contested convention. And for Republicans, 1976 was the most recent time there was a delegate nail-biter when Ronald Reagan made a surge—but eventually lost to—Gerald Ford, the incumbent president.

 

[ChesterBlue]

There is a segment of the electorate that adore that sort of stuff - see @Prevenger17 post about the country!

Christ, and I thought the UK was cooked politically.

Regardless though, Trump’s performance was basically just standard Trump, but Biden was so bad I wonder if the Dems are going to panic and try and put up another candidate after that car crash

 

[verreauxi]

This really could go anywhere...




That said, unfortunately, those 8 worst guys have 800000x the power of us.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Christ, and I thought the UK was cooked politically.

Regardless though, Trump’s performance was basically just standard Trump, but Biden was so bad I wonder if the Dems are going to panic and try and put up another candidate after that car crash

“Dems are going to panic”- Dems always panic tbh, irrespective of whether they should or not.

I remember Obama having a really bad (not Biden bad but still very bad) 1st debate with Romney and the hangwringing was a sight to behold.

However, unless Jill says “Joe, I love you but time to bow out”, all other Dems panicking isn’t going to do much other than further reinforceme Biden’s weakness with undecided voters.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Thank you, I find it all very interesting.
In your opinion, is any of this likely or should we be bracing ourselves for more Trump? On a lighter note, my 6 year old thinks his name is hilarious and makes a fart noise everytime she hears it

I don't think Biden will step down unless there's a major health scare before the convention. By "major" I mean "considerably worse than Hillary's in 2016."

Politicians tend toward the selfish by the nature of the job. Biden secured re-election to the Senate for decades by fighting to bring government money to Delaware. That's not a job for people who play nicely with others.

I don't think it can be apparent by the convention in August that he's certain to lose, so I think he's likely to stay the course. After the convention, ballot access in key states becomes a problem, so replacing him for anything other than death (for which settled ballot law exists) would be an issue.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I don't think Biden will step down unless there's a major health scare before the convention. By "major" I mean "considerably worse than Hillary's in 2016."

Politicians tend toward the selfish by the nature of the job. Biden secured re-election to the Senate for decades by fighting to bring government money to Delaware. That's not a job for people who play nicely with others.

I don't think it can be apparent by the convention in August that he's certain to lose, so I think he's likely to stay the course. After the convention, ballot access in key states becomes a problem, so replacing him for anything other than death (for which settled ballot law exists) would be an issue.

Even if Obama phoned him and said “ It is time Joe” he is unlikely to step down - Obama advised him not to run in 2016 and I think he’s always regretted listening to him.

 

[dylsexicbleu]

If they wait until as late as the convention it can only be Kamala who replaces him. Even now I think we can all but rule out Newsom. You cannot step over Kamala Harris for yet another straight, white guy as the nominee. It's likely between Harris, Whitmer and Buttigieg if Biden steps aside right now. Even then it's gonna be a messy transition, very messy and legally dubious. Expect the courts to become involved.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[carolinablue232]

For those who missed the debate. Here’s the important part

 

[Prevenger17]

I mean it wouldn't be the worst outcome. I do think Harris would beat Trump but, equally, she's one of the few potential candidates Trump could possibly beat himself. They need to be decisive and pick a lane sooner rather than later

 

[Goat]

I mean it wouldn't be the worst outcome. I do think Harris would beat Trump but, equally, she's one of the few potential candidates Trump could possibly beat himself. They need to be decisive and pick a lane sooner rather than later

I dunno if Murica would ever vote for a female POTUS.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I mean it wouldn't be the worst outcome. I do think Harris would beat Trump but, equally, she's one of the few potential candidates Trump could possibly beat himself. They need to be decisive and pick a lane sooner rather than later

As @Martin Alvito said, baring a major medical issue, I think the lane is set.