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but they're not one homogenous group who always vote in a particular way. they're individuals with their own minds, some will wildly contrast with each other. Around a third of Trump voters are non-white.
I never said they were a homogenous group! But Sanders for whatever reason consistently has less support from African Americans than Clinton did in 2016 and now Biden does in 2020. Of course the motivations will be different on an individual level, same as any demographic category, and specific policies/traits will change some minds but I don’t see what the issue is with pointing out that is not currently the case.

It is true that a third of the 2020 electorate will likely be non-white but nothing I have read even remotely indicates that a third of Trump voters are, perhaps you can link to something that shows that?
The study projects that whites will comprise 66.7 percent of eligible voters; Hispanics, 13.3 percent; blacks, 12.5 percent; and Asians, 4.7 percent. The fact that non-whites will comprise roughly one-third of eligible voters would not be a problem for Trump and the Republican Party if they did not overwhelming and consistently vote Democratic. But the ever-increasing Hispanic vote is the GOP’s greatest cause of present and future consternation. For example, due to Hispanic growth, traditional “ruby red” Arizona, with 10 electoral votes, will be among the most contentious 2020 battleground states. And, though Republicans fondly remember when New Mexico last went “red” -- in 2004, helping re-elect President George W. Bush – it is now solidly blue.
 
I find the “Sanders would have beaten Trump” a really fascinating theory.

On the one hand I believe that Sanders would certainly have done better with blue collar males in the midwest and could well have got some of the younger voters nationally who just sat out the election/voted 3rd party.

On the other hand African American turnout would have likely been even worse than it was for Clinton and I also suspect suburban women voters (who probably were the key demographic in the 2018 democratic house victory).
Right. It's predicated on Sanders picking up a bunch of the disaffected, white working-class voters who we're told came out for Trump, and also not losing any of the usual Dem constituency. That's a pretty high bar.
 
Right. It's predicated on Sanders picking up a bunch of the disaffected, white working-class voters who we're told came out for Trump, and also not losing any of the usual Dem constituency. That's a pretty high bar.

TBH you'd think any even half-way plausible nominee against Trump would not lose any of the usual Democratic base. The important thing will be the first bit.
 
TBH you'd think any even half-way plausible nominee against Trump would not lose any of the usual Democratic base. The important thing will be the first bit.
That seems to be the idea elevating the Biden campaign. When I think half-plausible nominee, I think Scranton Joe.

EDIT: Also, I was considering Sanders' chances against Trump in 2016. Now that they're both known quantities compared to several years ago, I'm not sure whether Sanders' chances are better or worse. In light of your comment, probably better.
 
But Sanders for whatever reason consistently has less support from African Americans than Clinton did in 2016 and now Biden does in 2020. Of course the motivations will be different on an individual level, same as any demographic category, and specific policies/traits will change some minds but I don’t see what the issue is with pointing out that is not currently the case.

It is true that Sanders did very poorly with African-American voters in the South, which more than anything else cost him the primary. But that is not to say that these voters would not have voted for him against Trump had he won the nomination (or, sadly, that their support matters much beyond the primary, as the states that swung victory for Clinton have not voted Democrat nationally since the Civil Rights Act).

And on the other hand, Sanders is uniquely equipped to make the Party competitive in places where it has been (deservedly) routed since the turn to Third Way orthodoxy under Clinton. If he wins the nomination in 2020, do not be surprised if West Virginia becomes competitive. Seriously. People who get their news entirely from liberal twitter think of West Virginia as ground zero for Trump, and essentially populated by stone age mutants, but it was one of the most reliable Democrat states for decades prior to the Clinton turn. It was not so much WV abandoning the Democrats as the Democrats abandoning WV. Candidates who run on a progressive platform there are already looking very promising, against enormous odds: https://theintercept.com/2019/05/18/west-virginia-populist-governor-campaign-stephen-noble-smith/ Joe Rogan comments and wildly successful Fox News appearances are obviously not scientific proof, but they hint at something which should not be so flippantly dismissed either.

At the very least, it is entirely plausible to suggest that with Sanders rather than Clinton, the Dems would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, possibly even Missouri - and/or Ohio, and thus the election, likely by a comfortable distance.

And it is a serious misconception that Sanders performs poorly among minorities. The Politico link you gave is indistinguishable between him and Biden. And that Monmouth poll had him as the preferred candidate of what they call 'voters of colour' (while also positing that these voters' support for Biden had dropped by about half). Somehow (for some mysterious reason), the media continues to reinforce the impression that Sanders performs poorly among minorities, when it is actually one of his great assets. It is quite revealing, actually, to recall that the same Clinton hacks made the same already tired accusations of toxic masculinity against Obama in 2008: https://www.salon.com/2008/04/14/obama_supporters/, which might prompt us to consider: are these claims actually true?

Where Sanders does perform relatively poorly is with older white wealthy well-educated professionals - which is the core support for Harris and even more so Warren and Buttigieg (who usually polls at 0% with African-Americans, which also mysteriously never gets mentioned). But, in a reversal of the assumption that it was the left that had nowhere else to go, it's hard to see voters like this, the most shrill anti-Trumpers, not begrudginly turning out for Sanders should he win - and in any case, they mostly live in states that the Dems will carry regardless. Would it make sense to run with the candidate who can deliver minorities, white professionals, the disaffected post-industrial working class, and overlooked but most importantly, the huge bloc of people who otherwise don't vote - surely the only hope of taking back the Senate and actually implementing reforms of the scale that are needed? Apparently not, for many Democrats.

But in any case, it is far, far, far too early even now to be quoting polls or demanding 'evidence' as though that actually means anything at this stage. There are months still to go, anything could happen, and every one of the thousands of polls that will be conducted will go out the window immediately after the Iowa primary results come. Biden's candidacy, for instance, is premised entirely on his apparently 'electability' (voters who have quite reasonably not been paying much attention recognise his name but nobody seems to actually like him, as his wife recently conceded), and his support will crater if results don't bear this out in Iowa and New Hampshire. It is worth keeping in mind that Clinton had a huge lead over Obama among African-American voters until he won Iowa, whereupon they all immediately began backing him, the candidate they actually preferred, the minute him winning over white people began to seem plausible. Strangely, the polls seem to suggest (again, grain of salt) that Biden supporters' second choice is by some distance Sanders (which might reveal a lot about how people who don't pay close attention to politics see things very differently than those who do). If that is true, and Biden flames out early, then... who knows?

If nothing else, I really do hope though that the Dems can at least do better than Biden. He is surely the single person in the Democratic Party who most closely resembles Trump. It is as though the cosmos is conducting an experiment to determine: are twitter Democrats self-aware? If Trump had promised not to take funds from fossil fuel companies while speaking at a fossil fuel company fundraiser, it would be just as plausible, but unlike with Biden, the Trump thread on here would have (rightfully) blown up. And the Party also needs (for once) to think beyond just the next election and beyond just the Presidency. Biden might even win against Trump (an exceptionally unpopular candidate), but to what end? Is he really what the Party needs over the next decade? And is he really the best person to ward off what will follow from the Republicans, a mixture of Trumpian rhetoric/contempt for the rule of law, but with basic administrative competence?
 
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Out of interest, where did you get that one third figure? Because according to this, it’s way off:

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Non college grad white demo is the lynchpin for the right and the bullseye of right wing opinion media. Those poor souls are being poisoned everyday as they happily consume what they want to hear.

Do they ever question why it's always exactly what they want to hear? Zombies.
 
I mean NPR is supposedly the left equivalent of Rush Limbaugh or Hannity or Mark Levin. Three guys that have 3-4 hour blocks of time to spread their agenda completely unchallenged.

NPR actually reports news. They try their best to see both sides. Their bias is based only in the topics they include...not how it's reported. Their news coverage is completely neutral. They state the facts of the day, and there is no editorial nonsense.

Limbaugh and others spend half of their time telling their listeners that liberals are evil...like the devil incarnate. I wish I was joking.

If you consume that sort of message everytime you turn on the radio, flip on Fox News, and descend into social media everyday, your world becomes an alternative fact...to the point that All Things Considered=Hannity.
 
I mean NPR is supposedly the left equivalent of Rush Limbaugh or Hannity or Mark Levin. Three guys that have 3-4 hour blocks of time to spread their agenda completely unchallenged.

NPR actually reports news. They try their best to see both sides. Their bias is based only in the topics they include...not how it's reported. Their news coverage is completely neutral. They state the facts of the day, and there is no editorial nonsense.

Limbaugh and others spend half of their time telling their listeners that liberals are evil...like the devil incarnate. I wish I was joking.

If you consume that sort of message everytime you turn on the radio, flip on Fox News, and descend into social media everyday, your world becomes an alternative fact...to the point that All Things Considered=Hannity.
It's why i hate the comparisons between the left and right media. Sure there are left leaning media that can go over the top but nothing compares the nuts you mentioned on the right. There's rarely subjective matter from the majority of mouthpieces on the right and facts are not their strong suit.

I don't watch MSNBC but it's mad that it's seen as the Fox of the left. At least they try to be balanced and actually invite conservatives on their shows. Or have conservatives host shows. Fox is just shameless and akin to the propaganda machines during the 1940's

Same goes for most mainstream or popular web based platforms.
 
It's why i hate the comparisons between the left and right media. Sure there are left leaning media that can go over the top but nothing compares the nuts you mentioned on the right. There's rarely subjective matter from the majority of mouthpieces on the right and facts are not their strong suit.

I don't watch MSNBC but it's mad that it's seen as the Fox of the left. At least they try to be balanced and actually invite conservatives on their shows. Or have conservatives host shows. Fox is just shameless and akin to the propaganda machines during the 1940's

Same goes for most mainstream or popular web based platforms.

You are right, although MSNBC tries to be OTT Left Fox News for me.

But I am talking about NPR. I feel smarter and more informed when I listen to it. I suppose there is the equality.

Those that consume Limbaugh, Hannity, and Levin and believe their misinformation feel smarter and more informed.
 
It is true that Sanders did very poorly with African-American voters in the South, which more than anything else cost him the primary. But that is not to say that these voters would not have voted for him against Trump had he won the nomination (or, sadly, that their support matters much beyond the primary, as the states that swung victory for Clinton have not voted Democrat nationally since the Civil Rights Act).

And on the other hand, Sanders is uniquely equipped to make the Party competitive in places where it has been (deservedly) routed since the turn to Third Way orthodoxy under Clinton. If he wins the nomination in 2020, do not be surprised if West Virginia becomes competitive. Seriously. People who get their news entirely from liberal twitter think of West Virginia as ground zero for Trump, and essentially populated by stone age mutants, but it was one of the most reliable Democrat states for decades prior to the Clinton turn. It was not so much WV abandoning the Democrats as the Democrats abandoning WV. Candidates who run on a progressive platform there are already looking very promising, against enormous odds: https://theintercept.com/2019/05/18/west-virginia-populist-governor-campaign-stephen-noble-smith/ Joe Rogan comments and wildly successful Fox News appearances are obviously not scientific proof, but they hint at something which should not be so flippantly dismissed either.

At the very least, it is entirely plausible to suggest that with Sanders rather than Clinton, the Dems would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, possibly even Missouri - and/or Ohio, and thus the election, likely by a comfortable distance.

And it is a serious misconception that Sanders performs poorly among minorities. The Politico link you gave is indistinguishable between him and Biden. And that Monmouth poll had him as the preferred candidate of what they call 'voters of colour' (while also positing that these voters' support for Biden had dropped by about half). Somehow (for some mysterious reason), the media continues to reinforce the impression that Sanders performs poorly among minorities, when it is actually one of his great assets. It is quite revealing, actually, to recall that the same Clinton hacks made the same already tired accusations of toxic masculinity against Obama in 2008: https://www.salon.com/2008/04/14/obama_supporters/, which might prompt us to consider: are these claims actually true?

Where Sanders does perform relatively poorly is with older white wealthy well-educated professionals - which is the core support for Harris and even more so Warren and Buttigieg (who usually polls at 0% with African-Americans, which also mysteriously never gets mentioned). But, in a reversal of the assumption that it was the left that had nowhere else to go, it's hard to see voters like this, the most shrill anti-Trumpers, not begrudginly turning out for Sanders should he win - and in any case, they mostly live in states that the Dems will carry regardless. Would it make sense to run with the candidate who can deliver minorities, white professionals, the disaffected post-industrial working class, and overlooked but most importantly, the huge bloc of people who otherwise don't vote - surely the only hope of taking back the Senate and actually implementing reforms of the scale that are needed? Apparently not, for many Democrats.

But in any case, it is far, far, far too early even now to be quoting polls or demanding 'evidence' as though that actually means anything at this stage. There are months still to go, anything could happen, and every one of the thousands of polls that will be conducted will go out the window immediately after the Iowa primary results come. Biden's candidacy, for instance, is premised entirely on his apparently 'electability' (voters who have quite reasonably not been paying much attention recognise his name but nobody seems to actually like him, as his wife recently conceded), and his support will crater if results don't bear this out in Iowa and New Hampshire. It is worth keeping in mind that Clinton had a huge lead over Obama among African-American voters until he won Iowa, whereupon they all immediately began backing him, the candidate they actually preferred, the minute him winning over white people began to seem plausible. Strangely, the polls seem to suggest (again, grain of salt) that Biden supporters' second choice is by some distance Sanders (which might reveal a lot about how people who don't pay close attention to politics see things very differently than those who do). If that is true, and Biden flames out early, then... who knows?

If nothing else, I really do hope though that the Dems can at least do better than Biden. He is surely the single person in the Democratic Party who most closely resembles Trump. It is as though the cosmos is conducting an experiment to determine: are twitter Democrats self-aware? If Trump had promised not to take funds from fossil fuel companies while speaking at a fossil fuel company fundraiser, it would be just as plausible, but unlike with Biden, the Trump thread on here would have (rightfully) blown up. And the Party also needs (for once) to think beyond just the next election and beyond just the Presidency. Biden might even win against Trump (an exceptionally unpopular candidate), but to what end? Is he really what the Party needs over the next decade? And is he really the best person to ward off what will follow from the Republicans, a mixture of Trumpian rhetoric/contempt for the rule of law, but with basic administrative competence?
Thoughtful post, will try to respond by paragraph.

Agree with much of the first one, as I mentioned previously I suspect with a 2016 Sanders vs Trump election African American turnout would have been further depressed from 2012 but a) that is only a guess based on how likely any voter will turnout for a candidate they may not have chosen in the primary b) how much of a difference this would have made to the electoral college results is a valid point.

For the 2nd paragraph I’ll gladly take your word for the potential change in West Virginia in a general election...but Bernie needs to win the primary first or the point is moot.

3rd paragraph - I agree that Sanders would have been a much stronger candidate than Clinton with blue collar workers in the midwest, especially men, so don’t find some of those state wins totally implausible. My reservations in addition to African American turnout is I believe he would have been a weaker candidate with older suburban voters...perhaps the end result would have been a closer Electoral Vote and worse in popular vote?

The 4th paragraph is where we begin to disagree ;) In 2016 there was a marked difference between Clinton/Sanders when considering a combination of both age and race. Older non white voters were overwhelmingly for Clinton and when combined with older white voters smaller preference for Clinton it made a huge difference as older voters are historically much more reliable primary voters.
race-age-dem-primary4-01.png

Whilst I think Sanders’ hard work in addressing some of his 2016 weakness has had some impact, I suspect similar trends in 2020 with Biden/Sanders (and for that matter Warren et al) although I’ll freely admit that multiple candidates makes it a lot harder to prove my hypothesis in the data. Will be interesting to see what the polls show when the field thins out. I’ll be particularly interested in seeing more polling for which candidates are drawing significant Latino support given how close Arizona may be.

It is getting late here so will finish by saying I broadly agree with your remaining points - it is still early days in the primary and the increased post summer focus could dramatically change the race as could Iowa.
 
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You are right, although MSNBC tries to be OTT Left Fox News for me.

But I am talking about NPR. I feel smarter and more informed when I listen to it. I suppose there is the equality.

Those that consume Limbaugh, Hannity, and Levin and believe their misinformation feel smarter and more informed.
No they are for sure but they are not a dumpster fire like fox. It's why i don't watch that channel either I used them as the closest example before the nuts decided all left news is mainstream and fake that is.

Sorry i took your greatr point and went in a tangent haha!! I do agree NPR defo right on that. One of the platforms that has worked out for the better in every aspect.

Limbaugh, Hannity and Levin have resigned themselves to grandstanding with BS because the people they speak too or think they speak too want it that way and the more ranting, bitterness and lies they spout the harder their so called base gets. Facts are not relevant in their world.
 
No they are for sure but they are not a dumpster fire like fox. It's why i don't watch that channel either I used them as the closest example before the nuts decided all left news is mainstream and fake that is.

Sorry i took your greatr point and went in a tangent haha!! I do agree NPR defo right on that. One of the platforms that has worked out for the better in every aspect.

Limbaugh, Hannity and Levin have resigned themselves to grandstanding with BS because the people they speak too or think they speak too want it that way and the more ranting, bitterness and lies they spout the harder their so called base gets. Facts are not relevant in their world.

Let us not ignore that Limbaugh has the largest audience on the radio. He is also ultra rich because of it. He got a massive tax cut along with Hannity.

He spreads his misinformation unopposed M-F for 3 hours a day...plus the replays to fill the airways.

In rural USA it might be your only English language option to receive "news" on the radio.

Poison.
 
Thoughtful post, will try to respond by paragraph.

Agree with much of the first one, as I mentioned previously I suspect with a 2016 Sanders vs Trump election African American turnout would have been further depressed from 2012 but a) that is only a guess based on how likely any voter will turnout for a candidate they may not have chosen in the primary b) how much of a difference this would have made to the electoral college results is a valid point.

For the 2nd paragraph I’ll gladly take your word for the potential change in West Virginia in a general election...but Bernie needs to win the primary first or the point is moot.

3rd paragraph - I agree that Sanders would have been a much stronger candidate than Clinton with blue collar workers in the midwest, especially men, so don’t find some of those state wins totally implausible. My reservations in addition to African American turnout is I believe he would have been a weaker candidate with older suburban voters...perhaps the end result would have been a closer Electoral Vote and worse in popular vote?

The 4th paragraph is where we begin to disagree ;) In 2016 there was a marked difference between Clinton/Sanders when considering a combination of both age and race. Older non white voters were overwhelmingly for Clinton and when combined with older white voters smaller preference for Clinton it made a huge difference as older voters are historically much more reliable primary voters.
race-age-dem-primary4-01.png

Whilst I think Sanders’ hard work in addressing some of his 2016 weakness has had some impact, I suspect similar trends in 2020 with Biden/Sanders (and for that matter Warren et al) although I’ll freely admit that multiple candidates makes it a lot harder to prove my hypothesis in the data. Will be interesting to see what the polls show when the field thins out. I’ll be particularly interested in seeing more polling for which candidates are drawing significant Latino support given how close Arizona may be.

It is getting late here so will finish by saying I broadly agree with your remaining points - it is still early days in the primary and the increased post summer focus could dramatically change the race as could Iowa.

Can't argue with your take on the 2016 dynamics, but I'm not sure how relevant that still is in 2020. The Clinton campaign was formidable in terms of funding, staff, resources, data, whereas the Sanders team essentially invented the campaign on the fly in 2016. They did not have the expertise or resources to take the South seriously, and it cost them the race.

But they are a far more professional organisation now, and they have been working non-stop for the past three years to build networks with minority voters. They also go much further than anyone else on issues that really matter to these communities, like criminal justice reform: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...iminal-justice-reform-plan-mass-incarceration (cf. Harris!)

And so far, it is paying off. Sanders is the leading candidate among Latino voters, and second only to Biden among African-Americans (and I suspect Biden's lead here is very flimsy, like Clinton before Iowa in 2008). He is leading Harris 2-1 with Black voters. And he actually polls better among Black and Latino voters than he does among White voters (which your Politico chart also confirms): https://www.vox.com/2019/3/7/18216899/bernie-sanders-bro-base-polling-2020-president

Again, all of this is very fluid and not definitive proof of anything, but at the very least, recurring headlines like this are just wrong (at least in Sanders' case):
Sanders, Warren struggling to win support of black voters

Why don't more people know this? I have my theories... ; ) But suffice it to say that if, for instance, Buttigieg was leading with Latino voters, it is very hard to believe that this wouldn't have been much more aggressively brought to our attention.

Beyond that, Sanders has a huge, diverse, and very committed base, which is nationwide at level that so far only Warren can remotely match.

I am not sure if this has been posted here yet, but I think it matters far more than polls at this stage, because it measures the breadth and intensity of core support in a way that polls can't really depict: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/02/us/politics/2020-democratic-fundraising.html
donor-map-articleLarge.png


Some candidates have clear regional bases, tapping into the donor networks that got them where they are now, but even in each of these cities or states, Sanders is almost invariably second. Donor support for Harris and Buttigieg (essentially an aspiring errand boy for the tech industry: https://newrepublic.com/article/154438/big-tech-want-buttigieg) is extremely confined to wealthy enclaves in the Bay and the Bos-Wash corridor, especially the posh bits of Connecticut. Biden can count on Delaware, and a handful of majority-black cities (whose elders are expecting him to win, and expecting favours down the road for their patronage). Only Sanders and Warren have a meaningful nationwide donor support base (though for now his is clearly more impressive), and the relatively small donations they collect are also very significant - it means a lot more to someone on $10/hour to give $27 than it does for someone who earns $250,000 to give $2700. Forget where I read this, but I think he also has more volunteers in Iowa than the rest of the field combined.

All of this makes Sanders overwhelmingly and by far the best choice in a general election: well-organised and passionate nationwide support, and appeal to broad range of otherwise unrelated constituencies, including non-voters and even many Republicans. And it makes him the candidate with the best chance of achieving the kind of decisive victory needed to actually implement the type of reforms that he and Warren recognise are necessary.

But you're right, it means nothing if he doesn't first win the primary.

And because he has achieved all of this precisely by challenging everything the Democratic Party actually stands for (ie: a corporate/elite patronage network which mirrors the GOP in seeking to contain everyday voters' economic expectations via permanent culture war), party elders see his many strengths not as an opportunity but as a threat.
 
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