Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary
- Thread starter abelard
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I find the “Sanders would have beaten Trump” a really fascinating theory.
On the one hand I believe that Sanders would certainly have done better with blue collar males in the midwest and could well have got some of the younger voters nationally who just sat out the election/voted 3rd party.
On the other hand African American turnout would have likely been even worse than it was for Clinton and I also suspect suburban women voters (who probably were the key demographic in the 2018 democratic house victory).
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
Ok well for starters, your quote is inaccurate, since that’s not what I said. I said overwhelmingly male (not an unreasonable assumption of a show hosted by a guy who made his name on UFC, within a medium that skews both white AND male) and majority white (see podcast comment).
Also, given that his guest list is 91% male, seems unlikely that there’s even a close to even gender split.
I’m sure there’s a demographic breakdown out there somewhere if you’re that interested in a disproval - but there’s a deep irony in you asking someone else for evidence given your history
dholliday
deconstructed rep
UFC has a very mixed racial demographic, both with the fighters and with the fans.
Why did you even bring up skin colour anyway?
Probably because one of Sanders key weaknesses in 2016 primary was non white voters and that appears to be the case in this primary too, although to a lesser extent.
2020 Democrats face the most diverse electorate in history
Over the past decade, the electorate in the Democratic presidential primary has grown more racially diverse, better educated and more heavily tilted toward female voters, an extensive new CNN analysis of exit poll data has found.
www.cnn.com
Party strategists almost universally expect those trends to persist, and even accelerate in 2020, as minority, white-collar and female voters continue to recoil from President Trump. Just two of the demographic groups most alienated from Trump -- white women with college degrees and African-American women at all education levels -- could compose as much of two-fifths of all Democratic primary voters next year, the CNN exit poll analysis suggests.
dholliday
deconstructed rep
i don't think it's healthy to put all non-whites into this big soup labelled "must appeal to them" .
not saying it's just us doing it...society does it. i'm with Morgan Freeman on this (paraphrasing: "don't call me a black man, i'm an american" ).
You might not think it healthy but given the demographics of the primary whether a candidate can attract their vote or not has a significant effect on whether they win the nomination.
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
Because skewing in any one direction makes it EVEN less valid as “evidence” that Sanders is the ONLY candidate who can beat Trump.
oh and fwiw I never mentioned UFC’s racial demographic
I'm all aboard the Warren Hype Train now
dholliday
deconstructed rep
but they're not one homogenous group who always vote in a particular way. they're individuals with their own minds, some will wildly contrast with each other. Around a third of Trump voters are non-white.
dholliday
deconstructed rep
you're being awkward again...
dholliday
deconstructed rep
First Time voters especially young women will be key here. With all of the gun innocents and the treatment of women over the last 2 years by the right by old white guys it won't be surprising to see they probably support warren.
Most of the politicians especially on the rifgr have been dismissive of teens thus far. What they dont know there has been a surge of interest from potential first timers and in some states they have recorded more and more numbers. This was something I saw on tv on the news and on several sources.
It's why I said the other day she had the best shot.
Old white guys have not conducted themselves well nor have they seemed cognitive.
Yes Sanders is sane and can talk the talk but does he appeal to the youth.
Last year we saw what young democrats wanted when they voted what was it 20 plus women into office.
@dholliday i do agree with you on podcasts that they can be very important and can garner numbers of interested opinions but it is also not an ideal way of deciding demographics.
As you will have noticed over the last year I am not a fan of polls either.
For me its listening and paying attention to the new groups bei g created across social media. Those who appear on the news or on media platforms who are letting us know what they want.
Warren is not afraid to address the native thing and has been clever to branch out to some tribes as a peace offering and for support. Name calling doesnt work anymore anyway because trump has abused it and made it normal.
Most of the politicians especially on the rifgr have been dismissive of teens thus far. What they dont know there has been a surge of interest from potential first timers and in some states they have recorded more and more numbers. This was something I saw on tv on the news and on several sources.
It's why I said the other day she had the best shot.
Old white guys have not conducted themselves well nor have they seemed cognitive.
Yes Sanders is sane and can talk the talk but does he appeal to the youth.
Last year we saw what young democrats wanted when they voted what was it 20 plus women into office.
@dholliday i do agree with you on podcasts that they can be very important and can garner numbers of interested opinions but it is also not an ideal way of deciding demographics.
As you will have noticed over the last year I am not a fan of polls either.
For me its listening and paying attention to the new groups bei g created across social media. Those who appear on the news or on media platforms who are letting us know what they want.
Warren is not afraid to address the native thing and has been clever to branch out to some tribes as a peace offering and for support. Name calling doesnt work anymore anyway because trump has abused it and made it normal.
dholliday
deconstructed rep
Know I get you weren't stuck on demographics but it felt the best place to make the point to all haha! Simply as great as podcasts are its not as if we know for certain who listening unless it's a podcast dedicated to a certain demographic.
We do need to change how we gather information. I feel instead of letting Russia decide social media information the US government could realistically have a proper conference with the media leaders and talk about what's changed. All of these old white guys living in the past is what's wrong with this new information age. Many of them are clueless and dont care to know
They also run their media campaigns like its 1970.
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