Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

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Meanwhile, the attempt to contain AOC, and to destroy the threat of anyone similarly independent and outspoken winning election, is having some instructive side-effects:

The Democratic Party is protecting one of its last anti-abortion members in a safe blue district. Why?

CHICAGO — In 1990, Patti Ernst was 35 years old and 16 weeks pregnant and found herself in a devastating medical situation. Her water had broken five months early, during a prenatal procedure testing for abnormalities that went horribly wrong.

Her doctors, at a Catholic hospital in southwestern Chicago, said there was nothing they could do. Ernst said they essentially told her “the baby is going to be terribly deformed and probably won’t come to term, but you are just going to have to wait and be pregnant and give birth to a child that is either terribly deformed or ...”

“I have a big issue with anybody that feels they get to legislate what I get to do with my body,” she said. She ultimately went to a different hospital to have an abortion.

Her congressman is Rep. Dan Lipinski, one of the last remaining anti-abortion Democrats in the House. He has voted to defund health clinics that offer abortion services, and to ban abortions at 20 weeks. He opposed the Affordable Care Act and its mandate that employers cover birth control. He speaks at the annual March for Life and attends fundraisers for anti-abortion groups.

Ernst supports Marie Newman, a progressive who supports abortion rights and is mounting a primary challenge to Lipinski. “It just never felt [Lipinski] was a Democrat,” Ernst, now 63, said, sitting in a Chicago Ridge, Illinois, home where Newman was holding a meet-and-greet.

This will be one of the most competitive Democratic primaries in 2020. And already, Newman is encountering some roadblocks. Though the district leans heavily Democratic, the national party has erected rules to protect incumbents like Lipinski. Newman says she can’t find a pollster who will work for her. Four political consultants have left her campaign because of a policy, made public in April, that the official campaign arm for House Democrats won’t do business with political vendors — like direct mail companies or political consultants — that also work for candidates challenging incumbent Democrats. Party superstars like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez oppose the rule; she also managed to topple an incumbent in a primary challenge. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee isn’t budging.

* * *
In the liberal stronghold of Illinois’s Third Congressional District, the anti-abortion Lipinski family has been in power for nearly 40 years — first Lipinski’s father, William, held the seat before passing it on to Dan — and they’re fighting against the current.

Once known for its conservative pockets, the area — surrounding Midway Airport, which spans parts of Cook and Will counties — is more diverse both socioeconomically and politically than it once was. It’s younger and middle class; the median age is 37, with a $65,000 household income, according to the most recent census estimates. There’s a growing Latinx population. Sanders beat Hillary Clinton here in 2016 by 8 points. Clinton went on to beat Donald Trump by an even bigger margin. Interestingly, Lipinski, who was a superdelegate in the 2016 elections, pledged his vote to Sanders.

But between Newman and Lipinski, only one has adopted Sanders’s worldview.

“I’m a real Democrat,” Newman likes to tell voters. “To be a real Democrat, you have to believe in the platform,” she said to Vox. She, like Sanders, identifies income inequality as the root cause of American suffering. At a Saturday morning Pet Parade in Chicago’s Garfield Ridge neighborhood, Newman led a procession of staffers and volunteers — and their dogs — with signs supporting Medicare-for-all, a $15 minimum wage, and a Green New Deal. Newman supports abortion rights, the Equality Act, and free college and thinks Immigration and Customs Enforcement should be “repealed and replaced.”

Steps behind, Lipinski’s team, in T-shirts reading “Commonsense Leadership for the 3rd District” on the backs, represented a different world of Democratic politics. In Washington, Lipinski’s commonsense leadership has translated to a vote against the Affordable Care Act and a past opposition to raising the minimum wage to $15 hour (he supported raising it to $12 but has since shifted on the issue). Lipinski voted for the Dream Act and the Equality Act for the first time this year, but with a caveat — he believes the bill conflicts with his positions on religious liberties. In the past, his immigration views have been more focused on border security than on a path to citizenship. ICE has continued to conduct raids in his district.

When describing the area, Lipinski’s staff focuses on the district’s history of conservatism. Lipinski himself cites the influx of Latinx residents as the biggest change in his district.

But Newman and her supporters say he’s espousing policies from a bygone era.

“He is stuck back in 1991 and he just couldn’t ever catch up,” Newman told Vox, praising Lipinski’s father for working on infrastructure. “It’s a misnomer to say [the district] is changing dramatically in 10 years. No, it’s just made great progress over time.”

“He just blocks out representing the district and turns to his personal beliefs to lead his vote,” Abby McEntee, a progressive activist with Indivisible and a local preschool teacher, said. “Personal beliefs are totally fine, but his job is to represent the district.”

* * *
Lipinski barely hung on last time, winning the Democratic primary by just over 2,000 votes. Already, Newman is outpacing Lipinski in fundraising, with nearly quadruple the individual contributions. She spent the end of last year working on local campaigns to learn even more about the district. Walking through a local farmers market, introducing herself and passing out stickers, she said roughly half the people she comes across at community events know who she is.

But House Democrats, facing a tough year to hold on to their current majority, have made incumbents a priority. And it’s hard to find a greater beneficiary than Lipinski. Newman says her campaign has been forced to create a new way to poll the district: gathering data from outside groups, and relying more on door-to-door events.

She’s familiar with fighting against the party apparatus. The “Chicago Machine” is infamous for its dirty tricks, and while Newman can’t definitively blame the party for her loss in 2018, she has a long list of fishy happenings she’s happy to share.

She says her office internet would go out without any explanation from the service providers. Her staff’s cars would get keyed outside the office. And most shocking of all, Newman said her name didn’t show up on the ballot at all in more than a dozen precincts. This time, they will have election watchers on the ground at every polling station. Above all, she says, fighting against the machine is fighting against a negative playbook.

Her supporters see the DCCC’s now public policy in the same vein.

“It’s disappointing the DCCC is learning from the Chicago old-style machine tactics,” José Torrez, an immigration activist and educator in the district, said. “We are watching what the Democratic Party is doing. We are not Republicans; we don’t block incumbents from challenges.”

The DCCC playing in her district like the Chicago political machine was a frightening thought for Newman.

Laughing, she said only, “I hope not. The machine is pretty darn good, so I’m scared to hear that.”
 
I am surprised by this too - I had expected her against Sanders all along. And this may well yet happen. It is still very early - too early, really, to even be talking about it ; )

Even a Beto revival would not be entirely surprising, now that Biden (thank god) might be starting to run out of steam in Iowa. Beto is still probably more gifted at running in the Meant To Be Seen But Not Heard lane than Buttigieg. Harris will need to sweep the South to be plausible, and probably finish at least third in NH and Iowa, though she plays much better in liberal cities and college campuses than in flyover states.

Electability ultimately applies (or should apply) to the national electorate, not just the narrow field of primary voters, which is why Sanders is so compelling, and why Biden, setting aside his dreadfulness, is a risky bet even in strict electability terms; absent the inevitable collapse of the global quantitative easing asset bubbles on Trump's watch (and he is trying his best with the tariffs, to be fair), Biden wouldn't be far from attempting the same thing as 2016 and expecting a different result.
Yeah it is early but it wouldn’t be an American election if we couldn’t indulge in some wild speculation that will probably seem ridiculous (and wonderfully vault worthy) in retrospect!

Iirc this is a view @Ruairi77 has also expressed in the past as well and I tend to agree, if anything Biden’s support seems even more tepid in enthusiasm than Hillary’s as she at least had a “breaking glass ceiling” appeal and her prior presidential campaign had garnered more support than either of Biden’s when he was a more youthful candidate.

I’m less sure than you on Sanders national electorate appeal, think he would do well in Mid West but far more doubtful in say Florida or North Carolina so interested in what clues the polling in those regions give us as we get to them.
 
So many Edmures!
latest
Although there will be lots of Edmures, Iowa has managed to make it likely that up to three people can plausibly claim they have won its primary!
 
I’m less sure than you on Sanders national electorate appeal, think he would do well in Mid West but far more doubtful in say Florida or North Carolina so interested in what clues the polling in those regions give us as we get to them.


Once we get to the business end of the primaries, we'll see what sort of energy each candidate can get out of the electorate. Complete oversimplification here, but I think Sanders has an ability to fire people up that the others don't. He won't have the same problem with "depressed voters" that ultimately undid Hillary
 
Once we get to the business end of the primaries, we'll see what sort of energy each candidate can get out of the electorate. Complete oversimplification here, but I think Sanders has an ability to fire people up that the others don't. He won't have the same problem with "depressed voters" that ultimately undid Hillary
Sanders has a proven ability to fire up younger voters - it is his ability with older voters, particularly women, I have more reservations about but as you say we’ll know more once we get to the business end of the primaries.
 
Like this Castro proposal. As well as the obvious health issues there are bery strong links between crime and early lead exposure so treating their impact might even pay for itself financially with reductions in jail populations/law enforcement.
 
Its early but once again the black vote is up for grabs ignored. I'm a minority at my workplace and I can tell you that the one issue that blacks care about. Its cops gone wild. And predictably not one candidate is even giving it token lip service. Its a pretty easy campaign promise to keep. You don't have to even get any laws passed. You just hammer on the issue that if local authorities are going to protect cops then fine we'll bring in the feds and charge them w/ federal civil rights violations.
 
Its early but once again the black vote is up for grabs ignored. I'm a minority at my workplace and I can tell you that the one issue that blacks care about. Its cops gone wild. And predictably not one candidate is even giving it token lip service. Its a pretty easy campaign promise to keep. You don't have to even get any laws passed. You just hammer on the issue that if local authorities are going to protect cops then fine we'll bring in the feds and charge them w/ federal civil rights violations.

It is very unfortunate that this is considered out of bounds in American politics, because it desperately needs addressing.

But, they are all terrified of a white backlash, because white Americans regard the police with almost religious veneration.

Even on this forum, there are multiple examples of otherwise liberal posters falling over themselves to excuse police who've essentially executed unarmed civilians, because they got bored and couldn't be bothered to do actual police work.

Cheri Bustos would tear the throat out of any candidate who dared speak ill of the police.

It is interesting to hear that this is such a concern though.

I suspect part of the reason why Harris has not really taken off is that a career spent endearing herself to posh old white ladies in San Fransisco by performing the Tougher On Crime Than Vlad The Impaler routine is... not as appealing to African-American voters in the South as posh old white ladies in coastal suburbs think it should be.

Meanwhile, it's starting - expect to see a lot more about China this campaign. This is increasingly going to be a problem for the Dems.
 
It is very unfortunate that this is considered out of bounds in American politics, because it desperately needs addressing.

But, they are all terrified of a white backlash, because white Americans regard the police with almost religious veneration.

Even on this forum, there are multiple examples of otherwise liberal posters falling over themselves to excuse police who've essentially executed unarmed civilians, because they got bored and couldn't be bothered to do actual police work.

Cheri Bustos would tear the throat out of any candidate who dared speak ill of the police.

It is interesting to hear that this is such a concern though.

I suspect part of the reason why Harris has not really taken off is that a career spent endearing herself to posh old white ladies in San Fransisco by performing the Tougher On Crime Than Vlad The Impaler routine is... not as appealing to African-American voters in the South as posh old white ladies in coastal suburbs think it should be.

Meanwhile, it's starting - expect to see a lot more about China this campaign. This is increasingly going to be a problem for the Dems.
sitting in an office in Kendall now!

Yea, a big eye opener here for me was the attitude towards the cops. They're untouchable.
Couldn't believe that they do road works duty. Every pot hole being filled has some cop standing over it making a fortune. During construction season you cant go more than a few blocks without a cop waving you around two guys filling in a pothole.
When ever I bring up the fact that this might be a waste of money, all I get is 'they put their lives on the line for you'...'yea I know but'....'but nothing'.
Not sure if cops should be unionized. A lot of these politicians are scared witless of the police unions.
 
I suspect part of the reason why Harris has not really taken off is that a career spent endearing herself to posh old white ladies in San Fransisco by performing the Tougher On Crime Than Vlad The Impaler routine is... not as appealing to African-American voters in the South as posh old white ladies in coastal suburbs think it should be.
I personally expected Harris’ past career actions to be a major issue at the “She the People” forum in Texas but Harris was very well received, along with Warren she probably had the best overall reception. And this was a crowd that wasn’t shy at expressing negative feelings given their booing of Sanders and outright contempt for Gabbard

Obviously that is only one data point but it appears to me looking at the regional polls that Harris is having more trouble recruiting support from the older white women in coastal suburbs than she is with African-American voters in the South. Perhaps she should be doing better with the latter group, the acid test will be how she performs in South Carolina of course, but currently she seems weak in the former although that could change if Biden stumbles. Harris certainly seems to be doing better in the South than Cory Booker who has focused far more on criminal justice in his policy statements.
 
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Once we get to the business end of the primaries, we'll see what sort of energy each candidate can get out of the electorate. Complete oversimplification here, but I think Sanders has an ability to fire people up that the others don't. He won't have the same problem with "depressed voters" that ultimately undid Hillary
Sanders is four years older. His message resonated in 2016 because it was new, it offered some what they thought Obama failed to deliver, it offered others an alternative to the establishment. In a two horse race he managed to ignite the imagination of younger voters. He managed to change the conversation and he managed to turn fringe ideas in to mainstream ideas.
He was a breath of fresh air.
Back then it was the Democrats (Clinton) against the independent progressive outsider (Sanders). That's not the case now. The Democratic party has a strong progressive wing which showed at the 2018 mid terms.
People have options this time.
In a sense Sanders may be the victim of his own success.
I think, by the time primary voting begins, he'll be poling fourth behind Biden, Warren, and Harris. Then there's a chance that he'll split the progressive vote and ruin what good will he has left.
 
Sanders is four years older. His message resonated in 2016 because it was new, it offered some what they thought Obama failed to deliver, it offered others an alternative to the establishment. In a two horse race he managed to ignite the imagination of younger voters. He managed to change the conversation and he managed to turn fringe ideas in to mainstream ideas.
He was a breath of fresh air.
Back then it was the Democrats (Clinton) against the independent progressive outsider (Sanders). That's not the case now. The Democratic party has a strong progressive wing which showed at the 2018 mid terms.
People have options this time.
In a sense Sanders may be the victim of his own success.
I think, by the time primary voting begins, he'll be poling fourth behind Biden, Warren, and Harris. Then there's a chance that he'll split the progressive vote and ruin what good will he has left.
Interesting detail in the recent Q poll that might support that view

ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1
Little/
A lot Some None

Biden 32% 33% 22%
Sanders 9 17 36
O'Rourke 1 6 4
Harris 11 6 3
Warren 17 18 6
Booker 1 1 1
 
It is very unfortunate that this is considered out of bounds in American politics, because it desperately needs addressing.

But, they are all terrified of a white backlash, because white Americans regard the police with almost religious veneration.

This is so not true anymore. Even many whites are sick of what the police get away with these days. There is even some support for it among the MAGAs. But the dems lost an election in freaking 1988, because supposedly Dukasis was soft on crime or something. So it became dogma. God I hate this party. Even the liberal wing doesn't touch it. Sanders has scant black support, it probably cost him the primary in 2016 and will in 2020 if he doesn't work overtime getting support among blacks. He could easily make this a central issue. Obama also wanted no part of it (he did studies, which is just kicking the can down the road, like the Repubs do w/ global warming). It might have cost the dems the election too. Because on issues like BLM and Flint there is a feeling that Obama abandoned them and a lot stayed home.
 
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