Warren has had some good poll results recently although how everyone performs in the first debate on June 26/27 is probably what is going to have the most influence on poll numbers.
Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary
- Thread starter abelard
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yup, I could probably google this but do you have any idea how they'll arrange who goes on which night? Is it a random lottery?
Depends what you mean by random
Seems like they are trying to avoid a situation like the Republicans where all the “top tier” went on the first night so are spreading out the candidates over two nights. However an entirely random draw could potentially create that situation. although low probability it would be non-zero, so unclear how they are going to resolve it if the random draw has an uneven clustering. Only thing I am sure of is there will be howls of outrage by some candidates about which night they are selected for!
Everything you need to know about the first Democratic debate
The first debate will take place on June 26 and June 27 in Miami.
www.nbcnews.com
Each night of the Democratic debates will feature 10 candidates. According to the DNC, the participants for each night will be chosen at random but will be done in a way to ensure that both night's groups feature an even mix of candidates.
If his back is OK and it is either Sanders/Warren leading the polls at the time he might try to mimic Ross Perot in 1992 and get back into the race after a summer off. I suppose it would depend on filing deadlines and whether he could ramp up quickly enough to qualify to get on any ballots.
Spooky timing, are you designing Evertons new home?
Interesting poll of the California primary - Harris does poorly for first choice given it is her home state but very well for second choice.
www.latimes.com
Harris needs strong support in her home state’s primary if she is to have a shot at the party’s presidential nomination. The poll finds her in fourth place, albeit narrowly, trailing former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
(Los Angeles Times)
Harris draws consistent support from across demographic groups and ideological lines and is widely cited as a second choice by voters, but she has no constituency that she dominates, the poll found.
Although Biden leads the race, he’s far from a commanding front-runner in the state that will send the largest group of delegates to next year’s Democratic nominating convention. Biden has support from 22% of likely Democratic primary voters, the poll found. That’s similar to his level in a recent poll of voters in Iowa, which holds the first contest of the primary season, but well below his standing in some national surveys.
Warren and Sanders followed close behind, with 18% and 17% respectively, essentially a tie.
California Democratic 2020 presidential primary is a wide-open race, poll finds
With the Democratic presidential field now largely set, the race in the nation’s largest state is wide open, with at least five candidates in serious contention and no clear favorite.
www.latimes.com
(Los Angeles Times)
Harris draws consistent support from across demographic groups and ideological lines and is widely cited as a second choice by voters, but she has no constituency that she dominates, the poll found.
Although Biden leads the race, he’s far from a commanding front-runner in the state that will send the largest group of delegates to next year’s Democratic nominating convention. Biden has support from 22% of likely Democratic primary voters, the poll found. That’s similar to his level in a recent poll of voters in Iowa, which holds the first contest of the primary season, but well below his standing in some national surveys.
Warren and Sanders followed close behind, with 18% and 17% respectively, essentially a tie.
Depends what you mean by random
Seems like they are trying to avoid a situation like the Republicans where all the “top tier” went on the first night so are spreading out the candidates over two nights. However an entirely random draw could potentially create that situation. although low probability it would be non-zero, so unclear how they are going to resolve it if the random draw has an uneven clustering. Only thing I am sure of is there will be howls of outrage by some candidates about which night they are selected for!
he DNC is trying to avoid the "kids' table" complaints that were lodged against the Republican National Committee in the run-up to the 2016 election — where front-runners in the large field of candidates were given one forum and lower-tier candidates another.Everything you need to know about the first Democratic debate
The first debate will take place on June 26 and June 27 in Miami.
Each night of the Democratic debates will feature 10 candidates. According to the DNC, the participants for each night will be chosen at random but will be done in a way to ensure that both night's groups feature an even mix of candidates.
Warren shows tentative support for Ranked choice voting.
This is a really important issue for me.
The US election system is an outdated mess
Changing the system would go a long way to breaking political gridlock and the duopoly.
https://www.boston.com/news/politic...4dBb0iaBOQwMfQvG8eadUj-Aq4-lT4iEczhrp2-4nX2iM
This is a really important issue for me.
The US election system is an outdated mess
Changing the system would go a long way to breaking political gridlock and the duopoly.
https://www.boston.com/news/politic...4dBb0iaBOQwMfQvG8eadUj-Aq4-lT4iEczhrp2-4nX2iM
so they've divided out the two groups and Warren is on the first night while Biden, Sanders, Harris and Buttigeig are all on the second night. Seems weird.
After we'd discussed how random the random draw would actually be earlier in the thread I tried to work out the math but since it was ages since I'd done stats my head hurt before I completed it!
So I resorted to a more practical experiment. I got a pack of cards, discarded two suits and also the ace/2/3 of the remaining two suits leaving 20 cards to represent the candidates. I then assigned each card to a candidate based on their polling with the higher polling candidates having the higher numbered cards, so the face cards were Biden/Sanders/Warren/Buttigeig/Harris/Beto, and so on down the field with Bill de Blasio/Eric Swalwell getting 4s.
I then shuffled the cards and dealt them into two groups and had a look at what it would have meant for the debates and then repeated the exercise a few times.
Was surprised at quite how often you got either 4 or 5 of the face cards clustered into one debate tbh, was about a third of the time, although never got all 6 in one hand.
Of course probably the weirder things are how much of my Wednesday night I spent doing this and that hubby now feels there is some message that he has to support Warren as he got her card in his hand 5 times in a row lol
haha, this is my favourite post, possibly ever!
Still obviously early but not a great poll for either Harris (who was expected to do well in this state) or Sanders
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