Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[mezzrow]

So much for Bloomberg? Did anyone watch the debate last night - I didn't.
My sources tell me he looked like a refugee from Madame Tussaud's and then Warren basically did this to him:

 

[Prevenger17]

I think it's fairly clear that Bloomberg would be a severe risk going up against Trump in a debate. Trump would have no problem tearing into the NDAs, tax returns and questionable history with racist policies with his typical complete lack of self awareness

 

[Tim's tourettes]

Couple of questions for our American posters... 1. Can you still give much credence to poll data after the 2016 upset? 2. What will happen if Bernie does get the nomination? I read that Bloomberg has promised to support the nominated candidate, will Bernie be accepting of money from him? Could Bloomberg just fund anti trump adverts? (There is a fair bit of material to work with!!)
What would be the big changes in the states if 'crazy Bernie' was successful in 2020?

 

[sdk]

Bloomberg crapped the bed last night but far, far more people see ads online and on TV than watch the debates, so his current strategy may have been done less damage than his debate performance would lead one to believe. Still, he's very bad news. If Warren cannot be president then let her be a valkyrie.

 

[sdk]

Couple of questions for our American posters... 1. Can you still give much credence to poll data after the 2016 upset? 2. What will happen if Bernie does get the nomination? I read that Bloomberg has promised to support the nominated candidate, will Bernie be accepting of money from him? Could Bloomberg just fund anti trump adverts? (There is a fair bit of material to work with!!)
What would be the big changes in the states if 'crazy Bernie' was successful in 2020?

1) Sure, but poll data is suggestive and speculative and before-the-fact by definition, so I don't expect them to be determinative. By the closing stages of the 2016 campaign, aggregated polling gave Trump (iirc) roughly 35% chance of winning yet people carried on as if the polls had promised he wouldn't win rather than just saying the odds were well against him. Which is to say I don't think the polls "got it wrong" so much as Trump managed to get it right (and further, I think a lot of voters were so inundated by pundits' claims that Clinton had a lock on victory that many who'd have gone out to vote against Trump figured their own vote was unnecessary and stayed home instead).

2) I have no idea.

 

[sdk]

If Sanders gets elected president I expect four years of Republican obstructionism which, if they retain control of the Senate and/or regain control of the House, would prevent him from making much headway on his goals beyond what could be achieved by executive order.

If one of the other Dems gets elected president instead, I expect the same.

Hooray.

 

[TN Toffee]

Couple of questions for our American posters... 1. Can you still give much credence to poll data after the 2016 upset? 2. What will happen if Bernie does get the nomination? I read that Bloomberg has promised to support the nominated candidate, will Bernie be accepting of money from him? Could Bloomberg just fund anti trump adverts? (There is a fair bit of material to work with!!)
What would be the big changes in the states if 'crazy Bernie' was successful in 2020?

I think you can still trust the polling data. In 2016, Clinton received 3M more votes than Trump nationwide, but Trump managed to win EVERY swing state by razor thin margins which were very much within the accepted margins of error for those sorts of polls. He won Pennsylvania by 55k votes, Wisconsin by 20k and Michigan by 10k. If those three states had gone the other way, Hillary is president right now. No poll of that scale is going to be accurate down to the tens of thousands of votes.

 

[Ruairi77]

Tbh, it doesn't make a difference. No matter who is the frontrunner, the Trump virgins will say "the Dems are HANDING the election to Trump with this guy/woman." It's an incumbent president with the wind of a good economy at his back so yeah, Trump is probably going to win regardless, but I reckon Sanders has the best shot. He's got a devoted base that none of the others really have, he's tenacious as hell and has a clear message. It's only my opinion of course, but I just don't think someone as dull as Buttigieg has a chance against the lunacy of the Trump campaign machine, they have to fight fire with fire

I just don't see the independents in swing states going for ending all private insurance options.
Sanders roll back on that promise already started with AOC last week.
Trump will pick him apart in a good economy.
He'll even have a tough job convincing unions with good health care plans (we're seeing that in Nevada)

 

[BlueTX]

Bloomberg crapped the bed last night but far, far more people see ads online and on TV than watch the debates, so his current strategy may have been done less damage than his debate performance would lead one to believe. Still, he's very bad news. If Warren cannot be president then let her be a valkyrie.

Fewer than 8 million people watched the New Hampshire debate, just a blip more than watched the Iowa debate. At this point in the election cycle, most Americans have an attention span measured in seconds rather than 2 hours.

 

[sdk]

Fewer than 8 million people watched the New Hampshire debate, just a blip more than watched the Iowa debate. At this point in the election cycle, most Americans have an attention span measured in seconds rather than 2 hours.

Perhaps the main lasting legacy of the Trump presidency will be the abolition of Democratic primaries and caucuses and a switch to choosing Dem candidates by way of their performance on reality TV shows.

 

[Ruairi77]

Fewer than 8 million people watched the New Hampshire debate, just a blip more than watched the Iowa debate. At this point in the election cycle, most Americans have an attention span measured in seconds rather than 2 hours.

Amy K saw a huge bump from her Manchester debate performance.

 

[BlueTX]

Amy K saw a huge bump from her Manchester debate performance.

Sure. Locally.

 

[Ruairi77]

Sure. Locally.

yup, but she could have spent millions on ads and she wouldnt have got the bump she got off the debate. It kept her in the race.
I'm curious to see how well Bloomberg will do on super Tuesday, he clearly isn't used to being taken to task and I don't see him doing any better in debates moving forward.
There's only so much papering over the cracks spending millions on ads can do.

 

[Death]

Fare play to Warren absolutely crushed everyone especially Bloombergo.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Not gonna lie, watching Warren use Bloomberg as a chew toy was every bit as entertaining as predicted