Current Affairs 2017 General Election

[Tubey]

Dismiss it at your peril. Cameron campaigned heavily in LD seats in 2015 and we saw how that went. Political parties have a lot more data than even the pollsters, I dare say that they have some pretty smart people crunching the numbers and telling them where to concentrate their campaign. Anyone who think otherwise is imo rather naive.

All true, but the size of the Tory majority at this point comes down to one thing and one thing only in my view - how many young people get off their arses and vote. Because I don't think Corbyn has managed to shift many middle-class/elderly/rich votes in his direction.

He needs an electoral miracle at this point.

 

[JimB1878]

Haha well done! Got me there - your edited post is pretty much what I meant to say though (hence why I didn't notice the edit!)

Sneaky sneaky catchy monkey

 

[Boss_Blue]

A contradiction struck me before... Labour are going to do a bit better than expected because of Corbyn, but they'll also lose heavily because of Corbyn.

It's weird.

You want to try maybe being a bit less absolute?

Didn't you read the word "likely" mate?

That's because I edited your post but nice try.

Haha well done! Got me there - your edited post is pretty much what I meant to say though (hence why I didn't notice the edit!)

Hole, meet Tubey.

Tubey, hole.

 

[evilwebby]

the size of the Tory majority at this point comes down to one thing and one thing only in my view - how many young people get off their arses and vote. Because I don't think Corbyn has managed to shift many middle-class/elderly/rich votes in his direction.

That is one factor, but it is not the only one. Frankly, it's low-hanging fruit that the pollsters are using to justify the uncertainty in their numbers - it's easy to associate Labour's performance with turnout of the 18-24yos.

However a more complex and important dynamic is how the Brexit Stay/Remain voters are redistributed in this election; that is why May is campaigning where she is. She is trying to win votes directly from Labour brexit voters in the North and the Midlands. This election is not being fought on the traditional issues of Left vs Right but as a once-a-generation reorganisation, similar to what we say in Scotland in 2015.

Corbyn OTOH hasn't really learnt how to play the game as well. Piling up votes in safe Labour seats in the South isn't going to get him into Downing St. And Farron hasn't even read the rules before entering the arena. His party is heading for an even worse result that 2015.

 

[wikofootball]

KICK THE TORIES OUT

 

[Walken]

Just watched his speech in Colwyn Bay.
He's passionate enough, but he's not a natural orator.
He's got important messages, but they tend to come out in a rather staccato fashion rather than a smoother, more polished delivery that would potentially attract wavering undecided.
The party hierarchy really should have got him some public speaking coaching.

I'm not looking for Cicero to be honest, just pleased someone of integrity has a voice

 

[barneygumble]

It's exactly like the US Election this.

Labour provide cold hard facts, but they've been stung in the bad and have a. Naff reputation. Trump got dragged through the dirt, and he's a very dodgy character, unlike Corbyn, however he promised to make America better, that's what Corbyn is about.

Tories "exploit" the labour things but don't promise anything new and that was the whole Hilary Clinton process for me.
All they've done is smear the corbyn campaign because they are crapping themselves over losing.

 

[Tubey]

Hole, meet Tubey.

Tubey, hole.

Hey, I put my hands up - he got me.

 

[Clint Planet]

 

[Rollo Tomassi]

No no no no no no no no no no no no

On the first day she flew in on a helicopter to Bolton spoke to old Tory voters for an hour and then sped away with a police escort, it's hardly engaging with the people is it?

 

[arminisgod]

All true, but the size of the Tory majority at this point comes down to one thing and one thing only in my view - how many young people get off their arses and vote. Because I don't think Corbyn has managed to shift many middle-class/elderly/rich votes in his direction.

He needs an electoral miracle at this point.

Corbyn may not have but may has... with her stance on pensions!

 

[Sy-]

Political noob here, is a Lib Dem vote a wasted vote? transpires I'm pro Lib Dem, anti-labour and Tory neutral/apathetic.

Kind of expect Labour to snatch it anyway in no small part due to the tuition fee thing, but equally fear these students are going to get mugged off, who pays for it all?

 

[Boss_Blue]

Political noob here, is a Lib Dem vote a wasted vote? transpires I'm pro Lib Dem, anti-labour and Tory neutral/apathetic.

 

[Ruairi77]

Political noob here, is a Lib Dem vote a wasted vote? transpires I'm pro Lib Dem, anti-labour and Tory neutral/apathetic.

Kind of expect Labour to snatch it anyway in no small part due to the tuition fee thing, but equally fear these students are going to get mugged off, who pays for it all?

I'd say it all depends on your constituency. If theres a Lib Dem candidate who actually has a chance, vote for them as they could be in coalition with Labour, if not, just vote Labour

 

[ToffeeTim]

Political noob here, is a Lib Dem vote a wasted vote? transpires I'm pro Lib Dem, anti-labour and Tory neutral/apathetic.

Kind of expect Labour to snatch it anyway in no small part due to the tuition fee thing, but equally fear these students are going to get mugged off, who pays for it all?

It's a wasted vote in about 600 seats. It depends where you live. Have the LDs won your seat in last 2 or 3 elections? Basically there's only about 30 seats where they will be competitive. I don't see them winning many more than about a dozen.