Rook
Player Valuation: £80m
That's what Sunderland thought
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That's what Sunderland thought
Given we have Tosun and DCL...not the strongest attacking force. It makes some sort of sense, to me anyway, that a more circumspect defensive strategy might be in order. And as Silva has proved that he just doesn't do defending.
What is his point in being in the job.
....Cardiff.
Excellent, eloquent and only let down by twice using "it's" instead of "its".
Sorry but it's the only way I can prove that that I read it all!
I know it's his way to keep a low profile, but it doesn't really help the fans' frustration, not knowing what MB is thinking about the state of things. Maybe he thinks it's just par for the course, maybe he is actively in persuit of another manager and didn't really think that Silva was the right man in the first place. Maybe we are turning into Newcastle fans?
All of this. Exactly.
1) Is Silva currently getting the best out of the squad? No.
2) Has he had long enough to cleanse the squad of its weakest links AND replace them with quality? No. Need at least two summer and two winter windows for that... but if the DoF runs that side of things and recruits managers who fit the style that the squad is best suited to playing, we can reduce the likelihood of the need to "churn" the squad every time we bring in a new manager.
3) Do we currently have a striker that can be relied upon for 15 goals and ten assists per season? No.
4) Did we spend large amounts of cash PRIOR to Silva's arrival on "replacements" for Lukaku? Yes. Anywhere between £50m and £60m spent on Walcott and Tosun, plus the huge wage packet for Sandro... we must be paying nearly £300k a week in wages for these three players alone.
5) Are we hindered in the transfer market until we lower the wage bill and recoup some fees? Yes, thanks to FFP rules and the like.
The interesting thing to consider is the DoF model. If we accept that Brands is making the decisions re playing style and player recruitment (to fit that playing style), and that Silva was identified as a manager who is attuned to that playing style, then don't we have to accept that some of the squad simply don't fit the style of play and therefore we have to recognise that we will lose a few more games than we would otherwise like, especially in the first season?
The difference between Silva and his predecessors, in my humble opinion, is trajectory. Martinez had a good first season, at least some of which was down to him. However in the next two seasons the club was clearly falling along a downward curve in terms of performances, results and final league placing. The same seemed to be true of Koeman, albeit over a period of time approximately half that afforded to Martinez. Koeman also suffered to some extent for Walsh's failings in the transfer market, but he did say that he had influence in those decisions so he cannot hide behind Walsh in that regard. With Silva, we are looking at a much shorter period of time. He's had about a third of the time Koeman was given so far. Whilst it hasn't been impressive, I do wonder if it is simply too short a period of time to reasonably assess the trajectory. We may simply be seeing a period of stabilisation (realistically the best we could hope for in season 1 of any regime change) which can only really turn into improvement AFTER the summer '19 window (provided that window sees us reduce the wage bill, recoup some fees AND make additions to the squad who can slot into the starting XI).
We are currently ninth, in a little group of teams with West Ham, Bournemouth and Leicester where only a point or two separates 9th place and 12th place. Our goal difference is better than two of those clubs, and better than ALL of the other clubs below that. With twelve games to go Fulham and Huddersfield look virtually certain for the drop, both in terms of points (16 and 22 points fewer than us) and goal difference (both THIRTY goals worse off than us) so the question is: Are we bad enough that Cardiff, Southampton, Newcastle, Burnley, Brighton, Palace, Leicester, Bournemouth AND West Ham are ALL going to overtake us?
Maths says we aren't getting relegated unless NINE teams below us all start picking up wins against the eight teams above us. Sure, some of them will take points off of us and I have no doubt that we will see a few "unlikely" results before the season finishes, but we simply aren't going to finish lower than about 12th because for that to happen the results from essentially the entire first of the season would need to be reversed in the second half AND we'd have to lose virtually every game we play.
Now I am NOT happy in the wider context of where I want this club to be. Far from it. BUT there is no escaping the fact that Silva doesn't actually have a lot to work with right now, and didn't have when he first joined the club. The OP's premise, that social media amplifies discontent to an unrealistic level, is pretty accurate in my mind. If we strip away the rather unrealistic expectations of "breaking into the top six", to which not all of us subscribed at the start of the season anyway, all Silva really has to do at this point is fix the issue of conceding goals from set pieces. That would be a demonstration of progress. Progress that could be fairly attributed to him. Progress that could be regarded as a reasonable expectation in the context of the length of time he's been here and the state of the club when he arrived. That progress would be an early suggestion of an upwards trajectory.
Sacking Silva now would ONLY make sense if there is another manager available NOW who has a track record of success playing the style of football Brands wants, because Brands is trying to recruit players that play a certain way. To recruit a manager who plays a DIFFERENT style would put us back again in terms of player recruitment. So if we are going for a manager who plays the same style as Silva, the same style Brands is recruiting players for, then our expectations MUST be tempered with the realisation that we DON'T have the squad yet to finish higher than mid-table playing that "Brands" style.
If we can spot that some of the players clearly don't fit, then I suspect the players can too. That might explain why some of them are putting in distinctly lacklustre performances - they know they are on the way out regardless.
TLDR - I agree with the post I've quoted, and I agree with the OP. Unrealistic expectations from the fanbase get publicity due to social media, it becomes a frenzy and before you know it people start losing perspective entirely. If Silva just fixes the issue of conceding from set pieces then everyone will cheer up because that will guarantee us something like an 8th to 10th place finish and he really can't be expected to do much more than that off the back of only one summer and one winter transfer window, having inherited a bobbins squad.
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Agree with a lot of that.All of this. Exactly.
1) Is Silva currently getting the best out of the squad? No.
2) Has he had long enough to cleanse the squad of its weakest links AND replace them with quality? No. Need at least two summer and two winter windows for that... but if the DoF runs that side of things and recruits managers who fit the style that the squad is best suited to playing, we can reduce the likelihood of the need to "churn" the squad every time we bring in a new manager.
3) Do we currently have a striker that can be relied upon for 15 goals and ten assists per season? No.
4) Did we spend large amounts of cash PRIOR to Silva's arrival on "replacements" for Lukaku? Yes. Anywhere between £50m and £60m spent on Walcott and Tosun, plus the huge wage packet for Sandro... we must be paying nearly £300k a week in wages for this three players alone.
5) Are we hindered in the transfer market until we lower the wage bill and recoup some fees? Yes, thanks to FFP rules and the like.
The interesting thing to consider is the DoF model. If we accept that Brands is making the decisions re playing style and player recruitment (to fit that playing style), and that Silva was identified as a manager who is attuned to that playing style, then don't we have to accept that some of the squad simply don't fit the style of play and therefore we have to recognise that we will lose a few more games than we would otherwise like, especially in the first season?
The difference between Silva and his predecessors, in my humble opinion, is trajectory. Martinez had a good first season,a t least some of which was down to him. However in the next two seasons the club was clearly falling along a downward curve in terms of performances, results and final league placing. The same seemed to be true of Koeman, albeit over a period of time approximately half that afforded to Martinez. Koeman also suffered to some extent for Walsh's failings in the transfer market, but he did say that he had influence in those decisions so he cannot hide behind Walsh in that regard. With Silva, we are looking at a much shorter period of time. He's had about a third of the time Koeman was given so far. Whilst it hasn't been impressive, I do wonder if it is simply too short a period of time to reasonably assess the trajectory. We may simply be seeing a period of stabilisation (realistically the best we could hope for in season 1 of any regime change) which can only really turn into improvement AFTER the summer '19 window (provided that window sees us reduce the wage bill, recoup some fees AND make additions to the squad who can slot into the starting XI).
We are currently ninth, in a little group of teams with West Ham, Bournemouth and Leicester where only a point or two separates 9th place and 12th place. Our goal difference is better than two of those clubs, and better than ALL of the other clubs below that. With twelve games to go Fulham and Huddersfield look virtually certain for the drop, both in terms of points (16 and 22 points fewer than us) and goal difference (both THIRTY goals worse off than us) so the question is: Are we bad enough that Cardiff, Southampton, Newcastle, Burnley, Brighton, Palace, Leicester, Bournemouth AND West Ham are ALL going to overtake us?
Maths says we aren't getting relegated unless NINE teams below us all start picking up wins against the eight teams above us. Sure, some of them will take points off of us and I have no doubt that we will see a few "unlikely" results before the season finishes, but we simply aren't going to finish lower than about 12th because for that to happen the results from essentially the entire first of the season would need to be reversed in the second half AND we'd have to lose virtually every game we play.
Now I am NOT happy in the wider context of where I want this club to be. Far from it. BUT there is no escaping the fact that Silva doesn't actually have a lot to work with right now, and didn't have when he first joined the club. The OP's premise, that social media amplifies discontent to an unrealistic level, is pretty accurate in my mind. If we strip away the rather unrealistic expectations of "breaking into the top six", to which not all of us subscribed at the start of the season anyway, all Silva really has to do at this point is fix the issue of conceding goals from set pieces. That would be a demonstration of progress. Progress that could be fairly attributed to him. Progress that could be regarded as a reasonable expectation in the context of the length of time he's been here and the state of the club when he arrived. That progress would be an early suggestion of an upwards trajectory.
Sacking Silva now would ONLY make sense if there is another manager available NOW who has a track record of success playing the style of football Brands wants, because Brands is trying to recruit players that play a certain way. To recruit a manager who plays a DIFFERENT style would put us back again in terms of player recruitment. So if we are going for a manager who plays the same style as Silva, the same style brands is recruiting players for, then our expectations MUST be tempered with the realisation that we DON'T have the squad yet to finish higher than mid-table playing that "Brands" style.
If we can spot that some of the players clearly don't fit, then I suspect the players can too. That might explain why some of them are putting in distinctly lacklustre performances - they know they are on the way out regardless.
TLR - I agree with the post I've quoted, and I agree with the OP. Unrealistic expectations from the fanbase get publicity due to social media, it becomes a frenzy and before you know it people start losing perspective entirely. If Silva just fixes the issue of conceding from set pieces then everyone will cheer up because that will guarantee us something like an 8th to 10th place finish and he really can't be expected to do much more than that off the back of only one summer and one winter transfer window, having inherited a bobbins squad.
Although if Mourinho was indeed interested I’d whore ourselves to him.
Not Eddie Howe and the like though.
Cannot agree more. Excellent post.
I like Mourinho for a variety of reasons. However I don't think he's a good fit for us, because his preferred style of play is clearly NOT the style Brands is trying to put into place. Therefore if we were to appoint Mourinho we would have to make even more changes to the squad than it currently needs, and we'd probably find ourselves looking for a new DoF.
IMHO Brands should always be monitoring who is available to take the manager's position. If a candidate who is better than whoever we have and, critically, plays in the style Brands has recruited players for, becomes available then THAT'S when we should change. The performance of the existing manager in situ at the time should actually be less of a factor.
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Bravo.
RichardP
Player Valuation: £5m
Exactly this. We don't have a focal point to the attack and we aren't really set up to defend well - cue zonal marking discussion.
No matter the system that Silva prefers, he has to play to the team's strengths. I think our defenders are better players than they are being given credit for but they need better coaching and the team needs to be set up to grind out a few results.
When we finally get a cf who knows where the goal is and a cm to impose his presence on the game, then we can start playing a bit more tikky takky footie but, at the moment, the players confidence is shot and our league position is going down faster than a fat kid on a see saw.
I hate to say it but we need to go back to basics, fight for each other and grind out a few ugly 1-0 wins.
Good article mate, i agree with the vast majority of it, id give Silva three years myself, the only time i would change that if relegation was looking likely.
If we haven't got the players to suit how Silva wants to play, then shouldn't he be finding a way for us to play that does suit the players we have got (that's what a good manager would do) At the end of the day Silva is being paid a fair wedge of cash to manage us.
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