Where Next For Everton

[davids]

....Cardiff.

Why am I not brimming with confidence?

 

[Charles Hawtrey]

All of this. Exactly.

1) Is Silva currently getting the best out of the squad? No.

2) Has he had long enough to cleanse the squad of its weakest links AND replace them with quality? No. Need at least two summer and two winter windows for that... but if the DoF runs that side of things and recruits managers who fit the style that the squad is best suited to playing, we can reduce the likelihood of the need to "churn" the squad every time we bring in a new manager.

3) Do we currently have a striker that can be relied upon for 15 goals and ten assists per season? No.

4) Did we spend large amounts of cash PRIOR to Silva's arrival on "replacements" for Lukaku? Yes. Anywhere between £50m and £60m spent on Walcott and Tosun, plus the huge wage packet for Sandro... we must be paying nearly £300k a week in wages for these three players alone.

5) Are we hindered in the transfer market until we lower the wage bill and recoup some fees? Yes, thanks to FFP rules and the like.

The interesting thing to consider is the DoF model. If we accept that Brands is making the decisions re playing style and player recruitment (to fit that playing style), and that Silva was identified as a manager who is attuned to that playing style, then don't we have to accept that some of the squad simply don't fit the style of play and therefore we have to recognise that we will lose a few more games than we would otherwise like, especially in the first season?

The difference between Silva and his predecessors, in my humble opinion, is trajectory. Martinez had a good first season, at least some of which was down to him. However in the next two seasons the club was clearly falling along a downward curve in terms of performances, results and final league placing. The same seemed to be true of Koeman, albeit over a period of time approximately half that afforded to Martinez. Koeman also suffered to some extent for Walsh's failings in the transfer market, but he did say that he had influence in those decisions so he cannot hide behind Walsh in that regard. With Silva, we are looking at a much shorter period of time. He's had about a third of the time Koeman was given so far. Whilst it hasn't been impressive, I do wonder if it is simply too short a period of time to reasonably assess the trajectory. We may simply be seeing a period of stabilisation (realistically the best we could hope for in season 1 of any regime change) which can only really turn into improvement AFTER the summer '19 window (provided that window sees us reduce the wage bill, recoup some fees AND make additions to the squad who can slot into the starting XI).

We are currently ninth, in a little group of teams with West Ham, Bournemouth and Leicester where only a point or two separates 9th place and 12th place. Our goal difference is better than two of those clubs, and better than ALL of the other clubs below that. With twelve games to go Fulham and Huddersfield look virtually certain for the drop, both in terms of points (16 and 22 points fewer than us) and goal difference (both THIRTY goals worse off than us) so the question is: Are we bad enough that Cardiff, Southampton, Newcastle, Burnley, Brighton, Palace, Leicester, Bournemouth AND West Ham are ALL going to overtake us?

Maths says we aren't getting relegated unless NINE teams below us all start picking up wins against the eight teams above us. Sure, some of them will take points off of us and I have no doubt that we will see a few "unlikely" results before the season finishes, but we simply aren't going to finish lower than about 12th because for that to happen the results from essentially the entire first of the season would need to be reversed in the second half AND we'd have to lose virtually every game we play.

Now I am NOT happy in the wider context of where I want this club to be. Far from it. BUT there is no escaping the fact that Silva doesn't actually have a lot to work with right now, and didn't have when he first joined the club. The OP's premise, that social media amplifies discontent to an unrealistic level, is pretty accurate in my mind. If we strip away the rather unrealistic expectations of "breaking into the top six", to which not all of us subscribed at the start of the season anyway, all Silva really has to do at this point is fix the issue of conceding goals from set pieces. That would be a demonstration of progress. Progress that could be fairly attributed to him. Progress that could be regarded as a reasonable expectation in the context of the length of time he's been here and the state of the club when he arrived. That progress would be an early suggestion of an upwards trajectory.

Sacking Silva now would ONLY make sense if there is another manager available NOW who has a track record of success playing the style of football Brands wants, because Brands is trying to recruit players that play a certain way. To recruit a manager who plays a DIFFERENT style would put us back again in terms of player recruitment. So if we are going for a manager who plays the same style as Silva, the same style Brands is recruiting players for, then our expectations MUST be tempered with the realisation that we DON'T have the squad yet to finish higher than mid-table playing that "Brands" style.

If we can spot that some of the players clearly don't fit, then I suspect the players can too. That might explain why some of them are putting in distinctly lacklustre performances - they know they are on the way out regardless.

TLDR - I agree with the post I've quoted, and I agree with the OP. Unrealistic expectations from the fanbase get publicity due to social media, it becomes a frenzy and before you know it people start losing perspective entirely. If Silva just fixes the issue of conceding from set pieces then everyone will cheer up because that will guarantee us something like an 8th to 10th place finish and he really can't be expected to do much more than that off the back of only one summer and one winter transfer window, having inherited a bobbins squad.

Nicely put . I would also note that those calling for Silva's head and replacement with someone who knows how to grindout results (BFS?) is a great example of the polarity of Social Media and the pendulum approach to managers that will almost certainly give us a path down Sunderland Road if continued at Everton.

 

[Charles Hawtrey]

Why am I not brimming with confidence?

Because this is a transitional period where we have the how but not all the who's so there is a good chance any game could go any way. It seemed like 90% of GOT understood this at the start of the season but we have suffered from collective amnesia and now 75% of GOT thinks we started the season trying to get a Champions League spot.

 

[everton fan number one]

Because this is a transitional period where we have the how but not all the who's so there is a good chance any game could go any way. It seemed like 90% of GOT understood this at the start of the season but we have suffered from collective amnesia and now 75% of GOT thinks we started the season trying to get a Champions League spot.

We seem to be transitioning into a progressively worse and worse team as each day goes by.

 

[davids]

Because this is a transitional period where we have the how but not all the who's so there is a good chance any game could go any way. It seemed like 90% of GOT understood this at the start of the season but we have suffered from collective amnesia and now 75% of GOT thinks we started the season trying to get a Champions League spot.

I'd have never signed up if I'd know,I thought transition was beating Cardiff,Watford,Newcastle,Huddersfield etc with relative ease at home and valiantly losing by the odd goal to the top four after creating chance after chance and dominating possession.

 

[messymascot]

The problems are that we are now struggling at both ends. This means our strikers are under added pressure to score as they know we are bound to concede. The defenders and keeper are under pressure as they know if we concede we are probably going to lose as our chances of scoring are low. And so it goes on. We need to either become a free scoring team and blow the opposition away which I deem unlikely or we've got to become difficult to score against. If this means playing 2 DM or 3 CB when we have personnel available then so be it. Silva should perhaps even give up on his zonal marking for a while. I don't really want to see us go back to Moyes style football but if its for the short term while we get the right players in and the wrong players out, it has to be considered as we can't keep losing to average teams.

 

[COYBL25]

The problems are that we are now struggling at both ends. This means our strikers are under added pressure to score as they know we are bound to concede. The defenders and keeper are under pressure as they know if we concede we are probably going to lose as our chances of scoring are low. And so it goes on. We need to either become a free scoring team and blow the opposition away which I deem unlikely or we've got to become difficult to score against. If this means playing 2 DM or 3 CB when we have personnel available then so be it. Silva should perhaps even give up on his zonal marking for a while. I don't really want to see us go back to Moyes style football but if its for the short term while we get the right players in and the wrong players out, it has to be considered as we can't keep losing to average teams.

Same as Martinez, I don’t think Silva does defensive footy mate.

We’re just going to have to take points where we can and suck it up until the end of the season.

A bit more communication from the club would help too.

 

[Charles Hawtrey]

I'd have never signed up if I'd know,I thought transition was beating Cardiff,Watford,Newcastle,Huddersfield etc with relative ease at home and valiantly losing by the odd goal to the top four after creating chance after chance and dominating possession.

I am sure each fan has their own such definition of Transitioning but likely its not whats in any dictionary.
"change from one position, state, stage, subject, concept, etc., to another "
It doesn't include results.....

 

[messymascot]

Same as Martinez, I don’t think Silva does defensive footy mate.

We’re just going to have to take points where we can and suck it up until the end of the season.

A bit more communication from the club would help too.

I agree but I think someone above needs to step in. At least Martinez played with 2 DM. His problem came because he lost the McCarthy-Barry partnership. Also Baines became less of a threat attacking wise so the fact he was an average defender became more of a problem. I am confident we will finish somewhere between 8-12 but we need a proper summer to make some more adjustments playing staff wise to suit what Silva is trying to do. If he still isnt getting results next season maybe then we do have to consider his position.

 

[Tree13]

If we haven't got the players to suit how Silva wants to play, then shouldn't he be finding a way for us to play that does suit the players we have got (that's what a good manager would do) At the end of the day Silva is being paid a fair wedge of cash to manage us.

In a club where there is a DoF, I'm not at all convinced the manager decides the style of play.

In any club, it makes sense that whoever is responsible for selecting the style of play would also have the final say on player recruitment, otherwise there is too big a chance of buying players that don't fit the preferred style. In our club I think Brands has the final say on player recruitment, and I also think he has the final say on playing style. Silva has been appointed, I suspect, as the best available option to coach the preferred style Brands has chosen and I reckon that the club has recognised that recent previous seasons have seen a series of mistakes in the transfer market, and aren't going to judge Silva's performances until the squad has been overhauled.

 

[PeregrineT]

Its really simple: Hire a top manager.

Enough with the mediocres and re-treads, we are financially a top 20 club in the world, we should hire a manager that fits that bill. When we stop hiring guys that failed twice in 2 years, and bring in just several more top Brands picks this summer, we could easily jump to compete for top 4-6. I just dont understand how people so underestimate year in and year out how important a manager is to how a team plays. He doesnt just dictate formations, he dictates tactics, how players are used, IF they are used, training, and the whole attitude of the team. No amount of great players can make up for poor management, and a good manager will take lesser players and get them playing their best.

 

[everton fan number one]

In a club where there is a DoF, I'm not at all convinced the manager decides the style of play.

In any club, it makes sense that whoever is responsible for selecting the style of play would also have the final say on player recruitment, otherwise there is too big a chance of buying players that don't fit the preferred style. In our club I think Brands has the final say on player recruitment, and I also think he has the final say on playing style. Silva has been appointed, I suspect, as the best available option to coach the preferred style Brands has chosen and I reckon that the club has recognised that recent previous seasons have seen a series of mistakes in the transfer market, and aren't going to judge Silva's performances until the squad has been overhauled.

I'd hope that wasn't the case

 

[FTY]

Losing interest rapidly

Nothing different or exciting about us anymore, been that way since 2014

 

[Zartan]

Losing interest rapidly

Nothing different or exciting about us anymore, been that way since 2014

2014? Are you about 12 years old?! There has been very little to get excited about since the late eighties!

 

[RomanReigns]