What's the plan?

[Nymzee]

Just to expand on the bit about Deulofeu and Bolasie.

Expected Assists (or xA) takes into account passes that a player makes, and how often in the ENTIRE league history since stats were recorded that pass would end up in an assist (so it tracks where the passes came from, and where they ended up). Each pass is assigned a number from 0 to 1 (i.e, that pass has never resulted in an assist, and that pass has always resulted in an assist - so a pass with an xA of 0.5 has, half the time it's been made in the PL, resulted in an assist). It's a more advanced 'key passes' stat which essentially grades the quality of a player's attacking passing while stripping it from being affected by things like the receiver's shooting ability.

Anyway.

Here's the top 10 players in xA per 90 mins who played more than 600 mins in the PL in 15/16:

View attachment 40292

Note Deulofeu, and note also the company he's keeping there.

Here he is playing for Milan last season (same deal, only players who played more than 600 mins):

View attachment 40293

Again, look at the company he's keeping there. These players aren't cherry-picked, they're just who the stats are throwing up. I don't care if he's only good for 60 minutes (although I have major issues with that statement anyway) - if you have that player in a team lacking creativity, you play him. Hell, you probably play him anyway even if you aren't. Especially if he's clearly bucked his ideas up and has started working hard and tracking back.

Here's last season - note Bolasie:

View attachment 40294

He was playing really, really well before he got injured. Whether that was due to Koeman using him in a certain way or just being on a hot streak, I don't know - he's never shown up anywhere near that high in previous seasons.

Basically, we had two players on our books with the possibility of genuinely creating goals for us. We lost both - once on purpose - and didn't replace either. Oh, and they were both fast too, something else we haven't replaced.

@orly @Timak blah blah

Or it was a case of Bolasie playing with better players?

 

[blulouie]

If we need pace, Vlasic and Lookman definitely have that.

Aye...as does Lewin & Sandro.

Certainly not slow up top.

 

[billyblue80]

Not sure Ron knows himself. It strikes me that there was a conflict between Ron's list and Walsh's then the inability of the board to acquire the width and target man we needed.So we hace ended up with three number tens.

One ray of hope is that it will take time for players to gel and we have played more games than anyone else this season and against some tough teams. I'd love to see us be more adventurous away from home but Ron seems to go safety first. Best half of football was Mirallas and Lookman on the wings first half home against split for me. Hopeful on Sandro when he gets up to speed but we are still badly lacking in terms of target man or pacy outlets away when we play with five and two full backs who sit.

 

[blulouie]

Good post mert.

Plus points of the current side:
- We're solid defensively
- Er...
- ....erm
- ....um.

Here's a fun article showing how by just about every single metric, we're big outliers as one of the worst attacking teams in the league, and our actual goals scored (which is still pretty crap) has been overperforming:

http://www.justashittyfootballclub....king-efficiency-the-perfect-attacking-metric/

Here's the TL;DR graph at the end of it (all the metrics are explained in the article):

Note how well grouped the rest of the top 7 (apart from Chelsea) are, and also note just how HUGE outliers we are in terms of numbers rather than just position on the table. We are total turd right now to the point where if this doesn't change, Koeman will be gone before the end of the season. It might change, of course (it bloody better) - Sigurddsson, Vlasic, Sandro, Klaassen, Lookman could all start flying, and 3 games is a small sample size - but that's where we are right now. We're not doing 'okay' - we're DREADFUL.

Weeeeeeee

Edit: here's another simpler look at it:



In this case, 'good' chances means chances with a historical 8% or higher conversion rate

Wow....thats after just 3 games , with two of them being away games to Man City & Chelsea.

What a nonesense article , come back after Xmas .If anyone wants to start comparing early season stats at least give it some time.

Honestly some people have far too much time on their hands.

 

[orly]

Just to expand on the bit about Deulofeu and Bolasie.

Expected Assists (or xA) takes into account passes that a player makes, and how often in the ENTIRE league history since stats were recorded that pass would end up in an assist (so it tracks where the passes came from, and where they ended up). Each pass is assigned a number from 0 to 1 (i.e, that pass has never resulted in an assist, and that pass has always resulted in an assist - so a pass with an xA of 0.5 has, half the time it's been made in the PL, resulted in an assist). It's a more advanced 'key passes' stat which essentially grades the quality of a player's attacking passing while stripping it from being affected by things like the receiver's shooting ability.

Anyway.

Here's the top 10 players in xA per 90 mins who played more than 600 mins in the PL in 15/16:

View attachment 40292

Note Deulofeu, and note also the company he's keeping there.

Here he is playing for Milan last season (same deal, only players who played more than 600 mins):

View attachment 40293

Again, look at the company he's keeping there. These players aren't cherry-picked, they're just who the stats are throwing up. I don't care if he's only good for 60 minutes (although I have major issues with that statement anyway) - if you have that player in a team lacking creativity, you play him. Hell, you probably play him anyway even if you aren't. Especially if he's clearly bucked his ideas up and has started working hard and tracking back.

Here's last season - note Bolasie:

View attachment 40294

He was playing really, really well before he got injured. Whether that was due to Koeman using him in a certain way or just being on a hot streak, I don't know - he's never shown up anywhere near that high in previous seasons.

Basically, we had two players on our books with the possibility of genuinely creating goals for us. We lost both - once on purpose - and didn't replace either. Oh, and they were both fast too, something else we haven't replaced.

@orly @Timak blah blah

Ah ace, we've managed to turn this into a proper nerdy thread - not HE'S GOT 96 PACE ON FIFA!!!! type of thing, but looking under the hood of a football team and seeing what makes it successful.

I reckon it's like a businesses (perhaps I should let Everton Business Matters know)

• Clear, demonstrable business strategy [football playing style], executed by superstars, highly successful - Real Madrid
• Horrible, snidey little company that works in the dullest, soul destroying type of way but ultimately achieves stellar results - every Jose Mourinho side since the dawn of time
• Everyone having a jolly old time at work, the canteen is the envy of all the local businesses, no one wears a suit even in professional external meetings, results have a few peaks but generally don't deliver much at the end of the year - Spurs, Liverpool under Shark Teeth and Bad Teeth
• Company with lots of ostensibly excellent staff members in one place, but no one knows what the company's end goal is and motivation or willingness to adapt is very low - this current Everton iteration
• Terrible low quality staff, no company ethos, everyone hates working at the company, outsiders hate the company itself, end of years abysmal, would be better to close and liquidate - Sunderland

Can Koeman turn us into a unit that outperforms the quality and sum of its parts? I'm not so sure.

 

[orly]

Wow....thats after just 3 games , with two of them being away games to Man City & Chelsea.

What a nonesense article , come back after Xmas .If anyone wants to start comparing early season stats at least give it some time.

Honestly some people have far too much time on their hands.

That sentence makes no sense.

 

[Brownie]

At home I'd think our main way of scoring will be passing through the middle and trying to get Sandro in behind. Away from home DCL will play pretty much every game, we'll go long often and play territory until we get a set piece.

I don't think not getting another striker will harm us too much, it'll just stop us from being any sort of threat to the big boys, either in league position or when we actually play them. We have no way to get controlled possession in the final third against the good sides, which was the same last season, and now we don't have Rom to run people over on the counter attack. Hopefully Vlasic turns out to be the best player in the world and destroys everyone immediately.

 

[billyblue80]

I find it weird that he brought on Kenny in a few games last year hailing his crossing ability as an attacking full back, since then he's been stuck in the u23s!

 

[blulouie]

That sentence makes no sense.

True....long night kid....very long.

 

[blulouie]

Wow....thats after just 3 games , with two of them being away games to Man City & Chelsea.

What a nonesense article , come back after Xmas .

Honestly some people have far too much time on their hands.

@orly
Post brain fart gone.

 

[OnlyBlueWillDo]

Koeman played very entertaining attacking football at Soton.

 

[jceverton]

...probably different ways of playing, one with and one without DCL. I thought there were positive signs of a slicker passing game in the home match v Hadjuk Split. Players getting beyond the CF (Rooney in that game, Gueye scoring). What we don't know is how Sigurdsson will fit.

DCL playing allows more of an 'out ball' when we're under the cosh (as with City away). If DCL doesn't play, long balls will tend to come immediately back.

The game against Hadjuk Split, they stood off us and gave us a lot of space, i'd be extremely wary of using that as a positive sign. If we do the same in the Premiership then different story but for now I don't see anything particularly positive in an attacking sense, other than I think DCL is going to be a lot better as a player at the end of the season!

 

[bluestevon]

Good post mert.

Plus points of the current side:
- We're solid defensively
- Er...
- ....erm
- ....um.

Here's a fun article showing how by just about every single metric, we're big outliers as one of the worst attacking teams in the league, and our actual goals scored (which is still pretty crap) has been overperforming:

http://www.justashittyfootballclub....king-efficiency-the-perfect-attacking-metric/

Here's the TL;DR graph at the end of it (all the metrics are explained in the article):

Note how well grouped the rest of the top 7 (apart from Chelsea) are, and also note just how HUGE outliers we are in terms of numbers rather than just position on the table. We are total turd right now to the point where if this doesn't change, Koeman will be gone before the end of the season. It might change, of course (it bloody better) - Sigurddsson, Vlasic, Sandro, Klaassen, Lookman could all start flying, and 3 games is a small sample size - but that's where we are right now. We're not doing 'okay' - we're DREADFUL.

Weeeeeeee

Edit: here's another simpler look at it:



In this case, 'good' chances means chances with a historical 8% or higher conversion rate

Far too early for any of this to actual mean anything though mate.

Take it at face value, apparently chelsea are worse than Newcastle and Watford as a attacking team, Saints are better going forward than City, etc etc etc.

Means absolutely nothing except as a curious little anomaly this early in a season.


Also yeah we are doing dreadful, but we have also played away from home the 1st and 3rd place teams from last season.

50% of the teams will have played 2 home games - actually slightly more as west ham swapped a home game out or two. so 11 or 12 have played 2:1 at home - thus will have created more chances by that virtue.

Has any other team played two of the top three from last season - and both away from home?

As i have said though atm it's just a curio and nothing more to be worried or whatever about, those stats hold true in 12-13 games time then yeah - different matter

 

[orly]

Koeman played very entertaining attacking football at Soton.

That's mentioned in the first post - both Walsh and Koeman have achieved a definable style of football elsewhere. The discussion here is not about entertainment, or whether it is perfunctory, or exciting - just whether it can be identified as anything at all.

 

[orly]

Far too early for any of this to actual mean anything though mate.

Take it at face value, apparently chelsea are worse than Newcastle and Watford as a attacking team, Saints are better going forward than City, etc etc etc.

Means absolutely nothing except as a curious little anomaly this early in a season.


Also yeah we are doing dreadful, but we have also played away from home the 1st and 3rd place teams from last season.

50% of the teams will have played 2 home games - actually slightly more as west ham swapped a home game out or two. so 11 or 12 have played 2:1 at home - thus will have created more chances by that virtue.

Has any other team played two of the top three from last season - and both away from home?

As i have said though atm it's just a curio and nothing more to be worried or whatever about, those stats hold true in 12-13 games time then yeah - different matter

But that's not what the chart means.

It's almost important to note we have also played Stoke (awful, especially away from home with only 4 wins last season away), Split (awful, with a dreadful record against English sides) and the Slovakian lads (who in terms of quality of personnel will be the worst team we play all season). The only really anomalous result is the City draw (and even then, we manged it last season, we're supposed to have improved).

You can't really argue we've dominated any of those sides for 90 minutes, or played a definable way. Nothing backs it up. The 'raw' way of looking at it is we've won four games, drawn two, lost one. Those bits of information @hetion has linked are only anomalous if we dominate a strong away side next weekend (Spurs) and perform well away at a traditionally strong home side (United). Otherwise, it's a fair indicator of predicted form.