Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I bloody hope so they don't take Odesa or else the war is completely over.

Meanwhile the UN is suggesting a four day ceasefire to allow urgent humanitarian aid to get through

UN chief appeals: ‘Forge a path to safety’ during a 4-day Holy Week humanitarian truce

This year, Orthodox Holy Week is being observed under a “cloud of a war” that totally negates the Easter message of unity, the UN chief said on Tuesday, calling for a four-day humanitarian pause in Ukraine.

news.un.org

It’s taken them 50 odd days to take Mariupol and cost them thousands of troops and equipment and that’s with decent supply lines.

The haven’t got the troops, equipment or the logistics in place to take Odessa. If they did advance west along the coast - the Ukes would destroy their supply lines cut them off and wipe them out.

Ukraine has started to receive heavy artillery, better AD systems, IFV’s, MIG-29’s heli’s and tanks so if they can coordinate all that lot I’m sure we’ll see a counter-attack or two in the near future

 

[Robert Heenan]

It’s taken them 50 odd days to take Mariupol and cost them thousands of troops and equipment and that’s with decent supply lines.

The haven’t got the troops, equipment or the logistics in place to take Odessa. If they did advance west along the coast - the Ukes would destroy their supply lines cut them off and wipe them out.

Ukraine has started to receive heavy artillery, better AD systems, IFV’s, MIG-29’s heli’s and tanks so if they can coordinate all that lot I’m sure we’ll see a counter-attack or two in the near future

I wish I had your level of conviction and optimism

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Zelenskiy: the war would have been over if we had the comparable weapons.

he is so right. Shame on you Nato.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Zelenskiy: the war would have been over if we had the comparable weapons.

he is so right. Shame on you Nato.

I would argue it would be a much larger, much more dangerous conflict if that was the case. I am of the belief that NATO nations have made a pretty decent fist of helping Ukraine stand up to Russia without escalating the conflict dangerously.

 

[Yarrgh]

It’s taken them 50 odd days to take Mariupol and cost them thousands of troops and equipment and that’s with decent supply lines.

The haven’t got the troops, equipment or the logistics in place to take Odessa. If they did advance west along the coast - the Ukes would destroy their supply lines cut them off and wipe them out.

Ukraine has started to receive heavy artillery, better AD systems, IFV’s, MIG-29’s heli’s and tanks so if they can coordinate all that lot I’m sure we’ll see a counter-attack or two in the near future

So where is the stopping point for Russia to halt? Kherson? Would they be prepared for a long grind to Transnistra? I don't see Odessa falling, but it depends on Russian intent and what price they would tolerate paying.

The conspiracy part of me would see the elimination of the Azov battalion be mutually acceptable and then see where the borders are. That could be presented as de-nazification by Russia. Ukraine would be without its more 'determined' force and its will faltering at that point.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I think that originally Odessa was part of the Rus plan to link all along the South coast with Transanistra in the west and donbas/luhansk in the east. That essentially would give Rus a land bridge to Crimea/Transanistra and give them complete control of access to the Black Sea, effectively cutting off that trade route for Ukraine.

Plan A is gone, so now I think they will try and hold the western line at Kherson however I reckon the Ukes will re-take it at some point.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

I would argue it would be a much larger, much more dangerous conflict if that was the case. I am of the belief that NATO nations have made a pretty decent fist of helping Ukraine stand up to Russia without escalating the conflict dangerously.

Even with limited ammo they put up a great fight. Imagine NATO gave everything they needed. UKR would have at least taken all of its territories they controlled pre 24 Feb

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Even with limited ammo they put up a great fight. Imagine NATO gave everything they needed. UKR would have at least taken all of its territories they controlled pre 24 Feb

And then we see Russia bombing the Baltics and Poland.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

And then we see Russia bombing the Baltics and Poland.

Why? Don't go full fearmongering, they would then say "oh well we at least have Crimea and Donbas" and retreat.

they would then understand NATO meant business..now not so much.

 

[Glasshalffull]

And then we see Russia bombing the Baltics and Poland.

No.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Why? Don't go full fearmongering, they would then say "oh well we at least have Crimea and Donbas" and retreat.

they would then understand NATO meant business..now not so much.

What you are doing here is saying "if you don't believe X then you must believe Y"

If you don't think Russia is aware that NATO mean business when their member states are supplying the AT munitions that wrecked their armoured columns in the first offensive, when they supplied the drones that stalled their convoys, the ammo that has kept the guns firing etc etc, not to mention the sanctions that will be impacting lives across Russia then I'm not sure what they would have to do.

If NATO, as an organisation, not it's member states start arming Ukraine, overtly providing aircraft armour and artillery then you will see Russia expand the are they are striking in. Purely to test resolve and reduce the flow of weapons to East Ukraine, if nothing else.

 

[Taifi gorm]

They won’t take Odessa and the Ukrainians will hold the line in the east. I agree Mariupol is gone.

Now it’s a case of pinning down the Russians and malleting them with switchblade and TB2 drones. Attrition rates will be high and hopefully the Ukes will establish a stronger negotiating position in any future talks.

I've noticed the Russians keep complaining that the pace of negotiations is moving to slowly for them, surely they should be waiting till after they deploy the 'full' weight of their force to negotiate from a position of strength.
Unless of course the problems within their military are worse than what's been exposed so far, be interesting to see what affects the counterattacks have.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

And then we see Russia bombing the Baltics and Poland.

Putin loves his life too much to do something so stupid, IMO.

 

[Yarrgh]

Seen a few articles such as below. Is the support evaporating and fear of reprisals becoming less worrisome compared to the fall out from the war?

Russian tycoon Oleg Tinkov denounces ‘insane war’ in Ukraine

The businessman says ‘90% of Russians’ are against Ukraine invasion and calls on the west to give Putin a clear exit

www.theguardian.com

 

[stipe]

Even with limited ammo they put up a great fight. Imagine NATO gave everything they needed. UKR would have at least taken all of its territories they controlled pre 24 Feb

I'm not so sure, its always easier to defend than attack, especially trying major offensive without air support.
Russia got massive artillery and air force advantage, if Ukrainians would leave their well fortified positions, trenches and cities, and rush to attack on the flat field of Eastern Ukraine, they would be picked easily.

Ukrainian position in Donbass are all trenches and bunkers, reminding of WW1, Russian offensive to breach through that line gonna be tricky, thats why they trying to encircle it from north and south.