Unless the West does a lot more to help Ukraine then the country will end up crushed by Russia and their cities bombed to dust. It will only stop when Putin decides it will stop unless NATO start supplying the weaponry that Ukraine are asking for. Putin has the support of almost the whole Russian population and there is no sign at all of that changing, so there will be no rising of the people to force Putin out. It does not look as though the sanctions are going to have any significant impact any time soon, certainly not to the extent of affecting Putin's behaviour - if anything they are making him more determined to carry on. Putin has apparently staked a lot on achieving something he can call victory by 9th May. This is the date that Russia celebrates victory over Nazi Germany and is an important event in Russia as the Great Patriotic War is now seen in mythical terms there. Any victory in Ukraine will be viewed as another one for Mother Russia over Nazism. I assume this is partly why Putin keeps referring to the war against Ukriane as being one against Nazi elements there. I expect a significant increase in Russian activity and barbarity over the next month as they push to achieve Putin's objectives. The only way this might be averted is for the West to arm Ukraine with more aggressive weaponry than we have to date, although I can't see this happenng myself unfortunately.
Current Affairs Ukraine
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Unless the West does a lot more to help Ukraine then the country will end up crushed by Russia and their cities bombed to dust. It will only stop when Putin decides it will stop unless NATO start supplying the weaponry that Ukraine are asking for. Putin has the support of almost the whole Russian population and there is no sign at all of that changing, so there will be no rising of the people to force Putin out. It does not look as though the sanctions are going to have any significant impact any time soon, certainly not to the extent of affecting Putin's behaviour - if anything they are making him more determined to carry on. Putin has apparently staked a lot on achieving something he can call victory by 9th May. This is the date that Russia celebrates victory over Nazi Germany and is an important event in Russia as the Great Patriotic War is now seen in mythical terms there. Any victory in Ukraine will be viewed as another one for Mother Russia over Nazism. I assume this is partly why Putin keeps referring to the war against Ukriane as being one against Nazi elements there. I expect a significant increase in Russian activity and barbarity over the next month as they push to achieve Putin's objectives. The only way this might be averted is for the West to arm Ukraine with more aggressive weaponry than we have to date, although I can't see this happenng myself unfortunately.
Diogenes the Cynic
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I can't understand why the UK hasn't expelled Russian diplomats in line with EU nations.
tsubaki
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There were already loads kicked out over Skirpal and our embassy (which would have been at pretty close to minimum necessary numbers already) can’t really continue if more leave (as they would under reciprocal expulsions).
Sad but true
We need to give them jets at least
Diogenes the Cynic
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I wouldn't have a problem with that.
Diplomatic relations with Russia are currently frozen. I wouldn't trust any of their officials on UK ground.
tsubaki
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I would, there needs to be far more diplomatic activity than there appears to be. We in particular seem to have abdicated a lot of responsibility, not only with Russia but other states too.
That will be because our Government are far too busy making money, fighting to save their jobs and debating how to kill more poor.
Sassy Colombian
Member: Team PoP
I agree, the West/NATO needs to do more. We have allowed Putin’s barbaric acts to happen for too long without serious repercussions. When is it going to be crossing the line if these atrocities happening to innocent civilians are not the impetus to act. When Putin decides to send a nuclear weapon as he has been threatening all along? His big ego is imperil if the current loses to Russian forces continue. Like you said, the sanctions are taking too long to have real effect, and the Russian propaganda along with the fear of getting arrested is keeping Russians in line with whatever Putin is claiming about the “military operation” so it is up to NATO to do something soon. And that means providing jets and big weaponry being asked for Ukrainians now before it is too late. Otherwise like @Diogenes the Cynic has posted, we are just delaying the destruction of Ukraine, and that to me is the wrong way to approach this conflict and Putin. In the words of Theodore Roosevelt “Knowing what's right doesn't mean much unless you do what’s right” It is time for NATO to do what’s right!
Yarrgh
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But that's not what NATO is designated for. It's a purely defensive organisation for the benefit of countries within NATO.
In reality degrading Russia's armed forces using Ukraine's soldiers cynically fits that bill.
For me NATO have already done too much, we are literally supplying weapons that are killing Russian soliders, ships, planes and vehicles.
As the aggressor, im not overly concerned, but im quite surprised Putin hasnt made more of it.
The suffering of the people of Ukraine is a crime against humanity, but WW3 would be so much worse.
Sassy Colombian
Member: Team PoP
I know that is not what NATO is designated for, but they are already providing small weapons to Ukraine, something NATO wasn’t designated for either so what’s the difference? We are already dipped our toes in this conflict. The reality is that Ukrainians are fighting a war for all European nations that are next on Putin’s war agenda so it is time for NATO to give them a real chance to win this war.
D
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Exactly, there won't be WWIII if NATO supplies them jets and heavy weapons, Russia is too weak to declare a war v 20+ member states
Killing Russians on Ukrainian soil in a war (sorry, special military operation) is something he can't agitate NATO over as, ultimately, he knows NATO's might.
This is where it comes down to defensive versus offensive weaponry; if our weapons were used for the latter, it's a totally different kettle of fish.
This boils down to one of the criteria where Russia can deploy its nuclear arsenal, and where NATO and the politicians draw the line in terms of risk.
"an act of aggression, committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardises the existence of the country itself." NATO versus Russia is scarily close to this.
Right now, as @Yarrgh pointed out, cynically NATO is seeing its foe being weakened militarily and financially, and for the cost a few billion worth of weaponry.
Yes there's the sanctions, but I think that's something they can weather if they eventually do force regime change.
Sassy Colombian
Member: Team PoP
That’s my same thinking. One thing that Ukrainians warriors have shown to the world is that Russia is not invincible. And they are not the big powerful war machine that Putin has portrayed to be. If Putin is mad enough to declare war against NATO then it is time to eliminate him and free the world from his tyranny.
While I've always advocated my belief that he'll not use his nuclear arsenal (through choice or those around him stopping it), it's a risk that must be respected.
Russia is far from, invincible, with the quality of its equipment, troops and tactics being shown to be way below even the more recent NATO expectations.
Yet they - sorry, he - have a nuclear capability, so in a world of managing risk, which all military conflict is, NATO will stay below a threshold they've calculated on.
Too little support for Ukraine and they'll quickly fall, Russia will be able to maintain or regain strength and focus will move towards elsewhere within a decade.
Too much support for Ukraine and Russia may feel threatened to a point which will lead to poor decision making, escalation and wider, more costly war.
So there's the balance, and that's before the politicians considering their own game of risk: how far they are willing to go without agitating support at home.
It's horrible what is happening in Ukraine and on a personal level I advocate much stronger military support, nevertheless I appreciate the current stance.
Looking at it with cold, analytical thought and as I said above NATO is seeing Russia and Putin being chipped away with a relatively low risk and cost.
If Russia beings to make military advances, there'll be an adjustment and leverage towards more support, but again to an extent where risk is managed.
Had there been no nuclear weapons being available to Putin, we'd have been striking the proverbial faeces out of them from day one.
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