Current Affairs Ukraine

[Yarrgh]

Meeting with India went well and according to Russian media, India said they'd buy all the gas that would have been going to Europe and pay in roubles.

Meanwhile, looking at the snow, I honestly don't know how long it will take before Europe blinks over gas and Ukraine. Can the UK limit the sale of its own gas supply to guarantee internal demand now it's outside the EU?

Going to be "interesting" with Russia change of focus. I get the feeling that this is just the end of the start phase. China's Solomon Island agreement going fairly unnoticed too.

 

[Robert Heenan]

Putin's failing war: GCHQ boss rips apart the 'incompetent' invasion of Ukraine in an unprecedented attack as he reveals new intelligence shows soldiers refusing orders, sabotaging their own equipment and accidentally shooting down their own aircraft​

By Rebecca Camber

GCHQ boss says Ukraine invasion in chaos due to Russian 'incompetence'

In an excoriating verdict on the 'failing' invasion, GCHQ director Sir Jeremy Fleming said the command and control of Russia's campaign in Ukraine was in 'chaos'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Sir Jeremy Fleming said command and control of Russia's campaign is in 'chaos'
The director of GCHQ launched a scathing attack on Putin's 'personal war'
The spy chief also said the Russian leader was being lied to by his closest aides
He said new intelligence showed ill-equipped Russian soldiers refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their own equipment to avoid going into combat
Sir Jeremy also warned China not to be 'too closely aligned' with Russia

 

[PhilM]

Putin's failing war: GCHQ boss rips apart the 'incompetent' invasion of Ukraine in an unprecedented attack as he reveals new intelligence shows soldiers refusing orders, sabotaging their own equipment and accidentally shooting down their own aircraft​

By Rebecca Camber

GCHQ boss says Ukraine invasion in chaos due to Russian 'incompetence'

In an excoriating verdict on the 'failing' invasion, GCHQ director Sir Jeremy Fleming said the command and control of Russia's campaign in Ukraine was in 'chaos'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Sir Jeremy Fleming said command and control of Russia's campaign is in 'chaos'
The director of GCHQ launched a scathing attack on Putin's 'personal war'
The spy chief also said the Russian leader was being lied to by his closest aides
He said new intelligence showed ill-equipped Russian soldiers refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their own equipment to avoid going into combat
Sir Jeremy also warned China not to be 'too closely aligned' with Russia

The fact that multiple Major and Lt. Generals have been killed tells you all that you need regarding that because why are so many close to the front line?

These are equivalent to OF-7 and OF-8, so divisional and corps level.

 

[bluebud]

Ukrainians …

 

[tsubaki]

A more realistic summary:

Russia-Ukraine war: US can no longer negotiate, let alone lead

It is probably best not to sneer at Turkey's mediation attempts, because right now it's the only game in town

www.middleeasteye.net

 

[orchard]

Ukrainians …



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Showing off big time with a trailer like

 

[devogue]

 

[peteblue]

…

Do the Russians now because it doesn't appear as if they're using them too effectively? In all seriousness, their intelligence has been inept or used ineptly.

Ukraine's key concern will now be the redeployment of troops to the east and how this will impact militarily and politically if Russia become more savvy.

If Russia is redeploying rather than de-escalating, do they move assets east to match the new threat and leave the west, with Kyiv and Lviv etc, exposed?

A smaller target area closer to their land means Russian can go strength in numbers and can better use its air assets, which can loiter in Russian airspace.

Politically, will the west be as open to support if Russia focuses purely on the south, with Donesk, Luhansk and the land corridor, and doesn't cross any further?

These could easily be staging points for further intrusions and attacks in the future. Sadly, I think as time goes by the west will seek to make a compromise.

Ukraine may not want this, but with such reliance on support from NATO et al. they may not have other viable options if the support becomes constrained.

@Robert Heenan, in terms of retaking Crimea - no chance. Nil. Zero.

If the west continue supplying arms and Ukraine keep doing what they are doing, I doubt whether Ukraine, after what they have suffered, will allow Russia to keep one square inch of Ukraine…..

 

[mezzrow]

An update on energy, food, and fertilizer and the world economy. All information based on best industry estimates and current news.

 

[PhilM]

…


If the west continue supplying arms and Ukraine keep doing what they are doing, I doubt whether Ukraine, after what they have suffered, will allow Russia to keep one square inch of Ukraine…..

Sadly, I suspect it’s not that easy Pete.

The Russians have been pretty incompetent so far, but if they concentrate forces in the east they're likely to have better chance due to a number of factors.

More troops in once concentrated area is the simplest factor, but they'll also be able to make defensive positions and keep assets shielded in/near their territory.

There'll be some grave concerns about western weapons being used anywhere near the Russian border, so that caveat may impact on negotiations.

Regardless of what they may have spouted, Russia wanted the entire country; they've failed to that extent, yet I can't see them giving up the Donbas.

It'll be incredibly difficult for the Ukrainians to drive concentrated forces out of their land without exponsing their northern, NW flanks to a potential attack.

 

[devogue]

 

[devogue]

 

[bluebud]

 

[Martin Alvito]

The fact that multiple Major and Lt. Generals have been killed tells you all that you need regarding that because why are so many close to the front line?

These are equivalent to OF-7 and OF-8, so divisional and corps level.

Is it bad if I immediately translate those grades into O-8 and O-9 in my head?

If they're that close to the front lines, it's because they feel the need to be there in order to influence the outcome. See: Patton directing traffic.

 

[bluebud]