Current Affairs Ukraine

[Davideeyore]

Something very weird going on in Moscow.

1. Last night Lavrov was half-way to Beijing when his plane turned around and went back to Moscow.

2. Early today China put out communiques bigging up Ukraine and praising them for their fortitude and stating China’s willingness to work with them in the future.

3. This morning 8 Russian special govt flights left Moscow - destination airfields scattered around the Ural Mountains (this is where Russia has its underground military bunkers).

4. Later this morning 2 additional special govt flights left Moscow for Kaliningrad.

So something is brewing.

Yeah i'm just making a cuppa

 

[Martin Alvito]

Kind of Petty don't you think. I think the British still have a beef with the US for fighting two wars but non of my recent generations were in conflict in fact I have family on both sides have fought for both countries.

I will agree going forward water will be the ultimate resource we witness this between the States already. But to suggest Canada and the US are unfriendly is a major stretch.

I wasn't saying that the US and Canada are unfriendly. I was simply pointing out the fact that the two countries have several ongoing territorial disputes, that actual shots have been exchanged (between civilians, IIRC) over fishing rights, and that this is not incompatible with the two countries cooperating on issues up to and including a military alliance.

It's not like Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio were trading war shots with one another over possession of the Ohio during the two centuries of wrangling. Well, unless you count that one time, but Kentucky was mostly on the same side as Indiana and Ohio.

 

[Chewbacca]

Anyone watch The Rise of the Dictators on the BBC a few weeks ago? They always eventually overplay their hand because start to believe they are infallible due surrounding themselves with yes men.

Boris is the same mind you but we have other mechanisms to reign in his idiocy.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I think the man might be misquoted.
They have +- 150.000 men on the ground. According to estimates the Russian army has the following personnel (without reserves)

Currently, there are 136 battalion tactical groups in the armed forces formed by contractors. The number of conscripts amounts to 225,000 and the number of contractors amounts to 405,000 as of March 2020 and exceeds the number of conscripts by 2 times as of the end of 2021.[52][53][54]

So it's 20-25 percent of the total armed forces. The Pentagon also confirmed (a direct contradiction of British intelligence) that they're not looking to reinforce their numbers right now.

It's an official US government transcript, so I highly doubt the official was misquoted.

I agree that the statistics suggest that, at best, the phrasing is highly misleading. I have no idea as to the intent. My point was simply that the Pentagon deservedly doesn't have the best reputation for telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. See: Tuskegee, Vietnam War, Gulf War Syndrome...we could be here for a while.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Nope the latest report from the Pentagon stated that he had pumped in all of his forces that were on the border and that he’d fed in a lot more. As I said they reckon he’s committed 75% of his total ground forces.

He has 500,000 troops in his personal army which are controled by the FSB and not the Dept of Defence, so he has plenty more troops to send if need be.

 

[Frenk]

Putin saying he needs to purge Russia of traitors now. What’s this going to mean, mass executions?

They’ve probably already started though with these dissidents we have been seeing.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I think the man might be misquoted.
They have +- 150.000 men on the ground. According to estimates the Russian army has the following personnel (without reserves)

Currently, there are 136 battalion tactical groups in the armed forces formed by contractors. The number of conscripts amounts to 225,000 and the number of contractors amounts to 405,000 as of March 2020 and exceeds the number of conscripts by 2 times as of the end of 2021.[52][53][54]

So it's 20-25 percent of the total armed forces. The Pentagon also confirmed (a direct contradiction of British intelligence) that they're not looking to reinforce their numbers right now.

Again it could be misinterpretation. The Pentagon official was questioned on this 75 % total on 3 separate occasions by journalists looking to verify his initial statement.

In his 3rd response he said that the 75% figure related to Russia’s formed-up, contracted BTG’s so if your figures are correct then he has currently committed 303,750 troops (292 BTG’s) to the fight in Ukraine.

I don’t think he would have gotten this figure wrong after 3 rounds of questioning

 

[tsubaki]

Something very weird going on in Moscow.

1. Last night Lavrov was half-way to Beijing when his plane turned around and went back to Moscow.

2. Early today China put out communiques bigging up Ukraine and praising them for their fortitude and stating China’s willingness to work with them in the future.

3. This morning 8 Russian special govt flights left Moscow - destination airfields scattered around the Ural Mountains (this is where Russia has its underground military bunkers).

4. Later this morning 2 additional special govt flights left Moscow for Kaliningrad.

So something is brewing.

More likely they are just messing with everyone, I mean the transponders could easily have been switched off and the public would be none the wiser.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

He has 500,000 troops in his personal army which are controled by the FSB and not the Dept of Defence, so he has plenty more troops to send if need be.

He’s already committed a large number of Rosgvardiya to Ukraine - they were assimilated into existing BTG’s sent to Ukraine.

Russia’s order of battle is based around BTG’s (Battalion Tactical Groups) with each BTG made up of tank, armoured infantry, light infantry, recce, artillery, anti-air, and logistics units.

Interestingly enough the Rosgvardiya units have suffered serious losses and today resulted in the arrest of the guy who was in charge (general Roman Gavrilov).

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

More likely they are just messing with everyone, I mean the transponders could easily have been switched off and the public would be none the wiser.

Yeah possibly…a very public drill and another poke at NATO.

Hope so. Very scary otherwise

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Again it could be misinterpretation. The Pentagon official was questioned on this 75 % total on 3 separate occasions by journalists looking to verify his initial statement.

In his 3rd response he said that the 75% figure related to Russia’s formed-up, contracted BTG’s so if your figures are correct then he has currently committed 303,750 troops (292 BTG’s) to the fight in Ukraine.

I don’t think he would have gotten this figure wrong after 3 rounds of questioning

102 BTG’s / fat fingers

 

[Martin Alvito]

More likely they are just messing with everyone, I mean the transponders could easily have been switched off and the public would be none the wiser.

Given the sloppy way the invasion has been conducted, I can imagine someone overlooking this detail.

We really don't have enough data at this point to draw conclusions beyond the notion that China probably is at least publicly changing tack in the direction of Ukraine.

He’s already committed a large number of Rosgvardiya to Ukraine - they were assimilated into existing BTG’s sent to Ukraine.

Russia’s order of battle is based around BTG’s (Battalion Tactical Groups) with each BTG made up of tank, armoured infantry, light infantry, recce, artillery, anti-air, and logistics units.

Interestingly enough the Rosgvardiya units have suffered serious losses and today resulted in the arrest of the guy who was in charge (general Roman Gavrilov).

This tends to support your contention that the Pentagon may be providing accurate information in this case. Any time the Russians start arresting generals, it means things are not going well. Other countries generally do not do this, but it is the way the Russians have done things for a very long time now.

Personally, I take anything the Pentagon says with a giant grain of salt. I'm not inclined to believe them on their word alone, given their history.

 

[BlueTX]

It's an official US government transcript, so I highly doubt the official was misquoted.

I agree that the statistics suggest that, at best, the phrasing is highly misleading. I have no idea as to the intent. My point was simply that the Pentagon deservedly doesn't have the best reputation for telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. See: Tuskegee, Vietnam War, Gulf War Syndrome...we could be here for a while.

We will be welcomed as liberators!!

 

[Martin Alvito]

We will be welcomed as liberators!!

There's a whole movie that runs over two hours about all of that guy's lies.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

He’s already committed a large number of Rosgvardiya to Ukraine - they were assimilated into existing BTG’s sent to Ukraine.

Russia’s order of battle is based around BTG’s (Battalion Tactical Groups) with each BTG made up of tank, armoured infantry, light infantry, recce, artillery, anti-air, and logistics units.

Interestingly enough the Rosgvardiya units have suffered serious losses and today resulted in the arrest of the guy who was in charge (general Roman Gavrilov).

Main reason why he is bringing in mercenaries from Syria and Africa. Methinks the billion in aid will neutralize these newcomers.

Hearing Slovakia sending their anti aircraft batteries to Ukraine as long as they receive in kind a replacement.