Current Affairs Ukraine

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That's also before the whole concept that, rightly or wrongly, there's no obligation for us put boots on the ground.
Which is where the security interests come in. Classic example: the genocide in Rwanda. There's an argument out there (made by very credible people) that we intervened in Bosnia, and not Rwanda, because of skin color.

I have never seen it that way. We intervened in Bosnia because NATO was concerned about contagion - the conflict spreading into other, neighboring states following the dissolution of Yugoslavia and a whole bunch of ethnic hatreds surfacing. We did not intervene in Rwanda, IMO, because that variable was not present. The conflict in Bosnia was not on the doorstep of Austria or Greece, but other conflicts could have brought it there. I seem to recall the Serbians and Macedonians getting into it a bit five or six years later.
 

Very interesting point. There's a good chance that Romney cost himself that election by speaking the truth about Russia in no uncertain terms. He was abysmal in other ways in the foreign policy debate that dropped him out of parity in the polls - he had no policy ideas other than 'do what Obama is doing' as I recall it, but that line from Obama was crushing. It completely reversed the trajectory of that election, which was swinging Romney's way after he demolished Obama in the economic debate to become a serious contender.
He was right, but it wasn't the reason he lost the election.
"Binders full of women" springs to mind
but I'd mostly say it was his inability to energize the republican base after years of governing Mass.
 
To win we would need a huge deployment of troops and equipment, and we/NATO currently lack the capability to put enough troops and equipment there.

By capability, I'm talking about corps/division that are at combat readiness. It might stop Russia invading them being there, but if it doesn't they'd be stuck.

That's also before the whole concept that, rightly or wrongly, there's no obligation for us put boots on the ground.
It will not happen but a full on attack would be disastrous for western Europe. Still an interesting scenario:

1. All the "hot" steel factories are closing because importing from India is cheaper. No way France and Germany will be ready for a (blitz) attack. They don't have the immediate industrial resources to make bullets or other armament. The USA on the other hand always kept strategic minimums on important industries (like aluminium).
2. Reinstitution of the draft, rationing, no luxury, people not returning home. Will the solidarity between Europeans hold after years of misery? Would you send your son to the Polish front?The Russian people might be more hardened and accustomed to surviving.
 
Which is where the security interests come in. Classic example: the genocide in Rwanda. There's an argument out there (made by very credible people) that we intervened in Bosnia, and not Rwanda, because of skin color.

I have never seen it that way. We intervened in Bosnia because NATO was concerned about contagion - the conflict spreading into other, neighboring states following the dissolution of Yugoslavia and a whole bunch of ethnic hatreds surfacing. We did not intervene in Rwanda, IMO, because that variable was not present. The conflict in Bosnia was not on the doorstep of Austria or Greece, but other conflicts could have brought it there. I seem to recall the Serbians and Macedonians getting into it a bit five or six years later.
And you'd be right. There may be an element of, 'It's not our issue because of x, y and z' but you could say exactly the same about parts of the Balklans.

Yet, the Yugoslav Wars met the threshold for intervention because of how it impacted on Europe, the Med and other areas, including what it could have became.

The same with Kosovo and NATO's KFOR mission. Ukraine is seen by as part of Russia's sphere of influence and the fallout will have less direct impact.

2. Reinstitution of the draft, rationing, no luxury, people not returning home. Will the solidarity between Europeans hold after years of misery? Would you send your son to the Polish front?The Russian people might be more hardened and accustomed to surviving.
The UK ended National Service in '63, but we were still able to maintain a relatively large standing army to maintain the BAOR. As did the US.

That was also against a much larger Warsaw Pact foe.
 
It will not happen but a full on attack would be disastrous for western Europe. Still an interesting scenario:

1. All the "hot" steel factories are closing because importing from India is cheaper. No way France and Germany will be ready for a (blitz) attack. They don't have the immediate industrial resources to make bullets or other armament. The USA on the other hand always kept strategic minimums on important industries (like aluminium).
2. Reinstitution of the draft, rationing, no luxury, people not returning home. Will the solidarity between Europeans hold after years of misery? Would you send your son to the Polish front?The Russian people might be more hardened and accustomed to surviving.
It's an interesting analysis. If Putin decided to test NATO's resolve, those factors would probably be in his calculus.
 
Emergency UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine crisis will start in about 20 minutes and will be chaired by Russia, which currently holds the presidency of the Council.

Item 1) What would everyone like for dinner.
Item 2) When will the U.K. police issue Boris with a lockdown fine.
Item 3) Next meeting……
 
And you'd be right. There may be an element of, 'It's not our issue because of x, y and z' but you could say exactly the same about parts of the Balklans.

Yet, the Yugoslav Wars met the threshold for intervention because of how it impacted on Europe, the Med and other areas, including what it could have became.

The same with Kosovo and NATO's KFOR mission. Ukraine is seen by as part of Russia's sphere of influence and the fallout will have less direct impact.


The UK ended National Service in '63, but we were still able to maintain a relatively large standing army to maintain the BAOR. As did the US.

That was also against a much larger Warsaw Pact foe.
Not to mention Yugoslav/Serbian army was way weaker than today's Russia.
 
Emergency UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine crisis will start in about 20 minutes and will be chaired by Russia, which currently holds the presidency of the Council.
The presidency of the council rotates monthly on the basis of the English alphabetical order of the member states' names. It confers about as much power as you would expect, given such a rule.

Russia's veto, of course, confers real power and means that nothing will happen. About the only interesting question going into this meeting is exactly what China will say. Otherwise, it's just an opportunity for grandstanding and everyone involved knows this.
 
It will not happen but a full on attack would be disastrous for western Europe. Still an interesting scenario:

1. All the "hot" steel factories are closing because importing from India is cheaper. No way France and Germany will be ready for a (blitz) attack. They don't have the immediate industrial resources to make bullets or other armament. The USA on the other hand always kept strategic minimums on important industries (like aluminium).
2. Reinstitution of the draft, rationing, no luxury, people not returning home. Will the solidarity between Europeans hold after years of misery? Would you send your son to the Polish front?The Russian people might be more hardened and accustomed to surviving.

Bit of a fantasy this - for a start, any war that would last long enough for industrial power to be required to build replacement or upgraded weaponry is going to last long enough for that capability to be brought back too. If the EU is still standing after that long in a war against Russia, it is much more likely to win any conventional conflict given the huge disparity in wealth, potential manpower, technological advantage and so on anyway.

Secondly, any war that required the draft to be brought back, rationing to be implemented and so on is going to be so serious a situation that people will almost certainly accept all that - lets not forget we have just had most of the country sat at home for months, not seeing friends or loved ones etc because they believed the situation justified it.

Russian military success has always come when they are defending themselves against attack. When they go abroad, it usually goes less well for them.
 
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