I agree with your take in the first paragraph. The article contends that we tell ourselves a false narrative about our own virtue while engaging in some of the same sorts of actions Putin does, particularly when we perceive ourselves to be on the side which is morally "right", resulting in grievances with respect to our hypocrisy and disengagement by the third parties we need to take collective security action.
I don't think that the author is making the contentions you claim that he's making in the second paragraph. The author does not argue that we could have stopped this war, but rather that our actions were reasonably construed by the other side as hypocritical provocations. In other words, we didn't start the fire but we did help put the kindling in place. If we want to avoid future wars, we need to stop spreading kindling around, which simply requires us to be honest with ourselves about what we want, our past mistakes and our biases before acting. You're correct that some situations probably exist where nothing can be done to avoid war (Jim Fearon wrote the definitive treatment on the necessary and sufficient conditions, which has been extended and criticized by many others), but an honest self-assessment of this situation suggests that we can, and should, learn from our mistakes.
Well, I'm bowing out of this particular debate, now, pal, because we're seeing the same things, but just interpreting them differently.
Either the 'kindling' that we allegedly provided sparked Putin to go over the edge, or it didn't. If it
did, then the author is implicitly saying that the war
could have been stopped without the kindling being in place. If it
didn't, then I don't know why the condescending half-wit wrote the interminable thing in the first place.
The way the article is written, there's a very fine (if any) distinction between kindling, provocation, and cause/trigger for this war. I would contend that some of the alleged kindling has possibly had an exstinguishing, or fire retardant, effect. Weapons in Europe that can reach Russia might well have stopped Putin leaning on Western Europe with 'dire consequences if you don't do what I want' threats, while central European countries, now NATO members could by now have been given the full Ukraine treatment without that membership. The places rolled over and smashed so far are non-members, after all.
I now permanently rest my case in this particular vein of the Ukraine thread. Thank you for the benefit of your views, though.