Current Affairs Ukraine

[Yarrgh]

Someone really needs to have a serious word with Zelinsky, I think. That peace deal might be nonsense but he’s got to be seen to publicly engage with it.

Even if it's just stating what Ukraine want, which may well be a return to it's pre-coup/ revolution borders.

 

[Whiteandblue]

This could lead to a guarantee of their independence though, much more than what exists now.

Their proposal may be a joke but it could be turned into a genuine lasting peace, providing that the rest of the world gets involved. Finland in 1940 had to sign a painful deal but it guaranteed their existence for the next 80 years; Ukraine (and the West) should at least engage with the proposal rather than try to win militarily, which is very unlikely.

I don't agree, Putin can not be trusted. Ever. If you give him a finger he's going to chomp down on the whole hand.

We won a painful independence after the Continuation War but the world was a different place and the Soviets were spent. It's just not comparable to Putin's Russia.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Why? We can all see its a joke and as his first priority should be independence he surely can not be expected to swallow that bait?

Just need to look at recent history to see how it can go wrong. In Nagorno-Karabakh the Armenian populated region had chance to negotiate relatively on the front foot, they held areas around their border to act as a buffer zone to the Azeri's and they could have settled just by giving those territories back.

Now yes that would have left them vulnerable to future attacks as Azerbaijan could have gone in from 3 sides. However they kept fighting and eventually lost the 2nd biggest settlement that sits high up above the capital Stepanakert. After that they then had to settle completely on the back foot as the Azeri's could have shelled them from above to pieces, so they lost far more land and people and equipment. With hindsight the original settlement was the by far the better evil to take and live to fight another day.

Russia was always going to demand two things as minimum from this, those separatist regions would be part of Russia or independent and Crimea would be officially declared part of Russia. I actually thought they would want a land corridor to Crimea also. If that settlement is real then Ukraine doesn't lose anything more than it had already had in 2014. To carry on they could lose much more.

Putin will be dead one day, future relationships might be better and Ukraine could still end up in NATO or the EU.

 

[Glasshalffull]

Could not disagree more strongly. The article focuses on the actions that the United States, its media and its people have taken for decades that helped lead us to this moment. It's contributory negligence rather than strict liability in this case, but the overall point is that if we don't want to see these things happen then we need to make some changes to how we conduct foreign policy. That, in turn, requires elevating the discussion to the non-partisan, pragmatic level that foreign affairs used to be conducted at, while at the same time recognizing our own hypocrisies and historical blind spots. It demands that the reader recognize that international affairs are not conducted in a vacuum, and that today's actions often have side effects that become tomorrow's problems.

I did say that the article was good in parts, and those parts included reminding us that 'the west' or parts of it have done bad things in the past and we assumed it was ok because we were the ones doing it. It reminds us that the war isnt a movie, or footy match, where we can fully support one side and despise the bad guy, and then everyone shakes hands and goes home at the end. Consequently, maybe we'll have to accept a less than ideal outcome to save lives on both sides. Fair enough, and useful points, but just because we or our mates did bad stuff once, it doesn't mean what Putin is doing now isn't wrong, or we shouldn't help put a stop to it. Equally, no overwhelming reason to give Putin exactly what he wants because that'll stop the bloodshed. That's the choice of the Ukrainians, who are the ones being slaughtered.

The annoying part of the article is that its poncy intellectualisation of the obvious fact that if we're here, then things that we and others have done must necessarily have led to this point. No ordure, Sherlock!!! If we're in a place where we don't want to be, that doesn't remotely prove we were wrong in what we did, just as if you have an argument with someone, you critically examine your own conduct, but sometimes the other party was just in the mood for a fight or had unreasonable demands, and there was nothing else you could have done. If you get lost while following your satnav, it doesn't mean tbat guesswork would have been better, does it? No matter what had been conceded to Hitler prior to WWII, he'd have kept pushing and pushing, and further concessions would still have resulted in war, but Germany in a stronger starting position. If NATO hadn't allowed the requests of central European countries to join, for example, maybe Putin would have rolled into them unopposed and be starting to want East Germany back, by now. Re-examination of 'our' actions is fine, but an implicit assumption that if we'd have done things differently then things would have been better, rather than worse, is clearly absurd.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Sorry if this has been posted before, but I think it makes an awful lot of sense:

Can We Have an Intelligent Adult Conversation About Russia?

We should simultaneously condemn Putin’s criminal war of aggression and be careful not to slip into arrogant insanity ourselves. Wars bring out the worst in all sides, and creating a world without war will require the United States to be self-critical rather than self-righteous.

www.currentaffairs.org

Thanks mate, that was an interesting piece and definitely suggests a 'think first' approach that thankfully our politicians appear to be following.

Personally speaking, I am furious, blood boiling mad at seeing what the Russians are wilfully doing to children, women and the elderly. It looks like Putin has thought he has created a check mate situation but badly misjudged the Ukrainian will to fight and the wests ability to act. Given that it would be too risky to enforce no fly zones or send troops in I hope that we arm the Ukrainians to the teeth - partly due to boiling blood but more so to show Putin and Xi that there are and will be consequences.

I know that you are an advocate of free press and this situation, with the manipulation of the Russian populace by state media is a prime exemplar of why press freedom is so important. I want to see Putin punished, his cabal punished and the Russian people educated as to what the reality is - though for many this would just be western propaganda. With this in mind you have to imagine that this is going to be a generational change, if victory was achieved and no quick win in any outcome.

This is an interesting piece when considering Putin's position about NATO expansion.

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csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com

Also this speech from March 2014 to get a flavour of his mindset on Ukraine (and the west).

Address by President of the Russian Federation

Vladimir Putin addressed State Duma deputies, Federation Council members, heads of Russian regions and civil society representatives in the Kremlin.

en.kremlin.ru

 

[tsubaki]

I don't agree, Putin can not be trusted. Ever. If you give him a finger he's going to chomp down on the whole hand.

We won a painful independence after the Continuation War but the world was a different place and the Soviets were spent. It's just not comparable to Putin's Russia.

That is why there needs to be much more international protection for them, if they are going to be non-aligned. This crisis has shown how linked in countries are and there is plenty of precedent for UN peacekeeping missions in circumstances like this. It also gives the opportunity for the international community to agree pre-emptive punishments if they are invaded again too.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This is not a current post invasion piece (May 2021) but interesting in reflection.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/0...bate-russia/myth-12-crimea-was-always-russian

 

[tsubaki]

Thanks mate, that was an interesting piece and definitely suggests a 'think first' approach that thankfully our politicians appear to be following.

Personally speaking, I am furious, blood boiling mad at seeing what the Russians are wilfully doing to children, women and the elderly. It looks like Putin has thought he has created a check mate situation but badly misjudged the Ukrainian will to fight and the wests ability to act. Given that it would be too risky to enforce no fly zones or send troops in I hope that we arm the Ukrainians to the teeth - partly due to boiling blood but more so to show Putin and Xi that there are and will be consequences.

I know that you are an advocate of free press and this situation, with the manipulation of the Russian populace by state media is a prime exemplar of why press freedom is so important. I want to see Putin punished, his cabal punished and the Russian people educated as to what the reality is - though for many this would just be western propaganda. With this in mind you have to imagine that this is going to be a generational change, if victory was achieved and no quick win in any outcome.

This is an interesting piece when considering Putin's position about NATO expansion.

Loading…

csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com

Also this speech from March 2014 to get a flavour of his mindset on Ukraine (and the west).

Address by President of the Russian Federation

Vladimir Putin addressed State Duma deputies, Federation Council members, heads of Russian regions and civil society representatives in the Kremlin.

en.kremlin.ru

Just with regards to press freedom, I agree entirely but I think it’s fairly obvious that our press is doing much the same thing (albeit without direct government interference).

An awful lot of our news is of the happy flappy / utter doom / made up kind, so much so that even Tucker Carlson had a point yesterday when he said how much of it was invented or outright false.

 

[Whiteandblue]

Quick polls on how public opinion has radically shifted in Moscow, lets hope the trend continues.

 

[tsubaki]

Quick polls on how public opinion has radically shifted in Moscow, lets hope the trend continues.

Again, that really has to be treated with extreme suspicion. Navalny is apparently the number one opposition leader in Russia and is in prison; is he really in a position to tweet out things and commission polling (especially in a repressive country where people are being pinched for having the wrong views)?

 

[BlueTX]

An awful lot of our news is of the happy flappy / utter doom / made up kind, so much so that even Tucker Carlson had a point yesterday when he said how much of it was invented or outright false.

He'd know. It's his entire FOX shtick.

 

[Tin-Tin]

This is awful, we are awful

 

[BornBlue76]

Speaking as someone who despises the Big Four as probably the no.1 problem with Western capitalism can I just point out there that PwC and the rest are not “leaving” Russia, they are just saying they are separating from their Russian firms (who will presumably continue to audit their local businesses as before).

Probably a conversation for another thread but as someone who worked in one of the big 4 I can assure you that the problem with western capitalism is far more personified by the banks than by an audit firm.

Curiously them pulling out means the partners will buy out the firm at knock down prices as they have already stated their need to leave leaving no brand equity to charge the partners… I also feel they’ll be very quick to come back once the dust settles.. as will every corporation tbh.

 

[Tin-Tin]

 

[peteblue]

This could lead to a guarantee of their independence though, much more than what exists now.

Their proposal may be a joke but it could be turned into a genuine lasting peace, providing that the rest of the world gets involved. Finland in 1940 had to sign a painful deal but it guaranteed their existence for the next 80 years; Ukraine (and the West) should at least engage with the proposal rather than try to win militarily, which is very unlikely.

Ukraine has been trashed. There is little more that Putin can trash. Meanwhile Putins much vaunted military is slowly but surely, and visibly, getting its arse kicked. Russia will run out of money to finance its already lost military expenditure. Ukraine have no intention of giving in. This could be a very long, drawn out, and expensive expedition. There will then also be the small matter of financial reparations for Ukraine at the end of it all. It seems to be Putin pushing for a deal, not Ukraine, at this point……