Current Affairs Ukraine

[Tree13]

TBF I think we all will need to be - we can't believe anything he says after this so there needs to be increased defence expenditure across the EU and NATO, increased internal security (against influence operations, bio-security and more traditional measures like border security), increased focus on what the two countries are actually doing and most importantly increased diplomatic and economic effort across the world, especially in Africa and states that may be at risk of permanently siding with Russia / China (Brazil, Turkey and India especially). Most importantly we as citizens need to educate ourselves and get better leaders.

Definitely a worrying sub-plot in all of this. South Africa, in particular, seems to be sliding headlong towards chaos and is unusually forgiving of Putin's despotic behaviour. The corruption in SA politics is absolutely out of control and entire industry sectors there are a complete train wreck.

 

[Tree13]

Indeed, but I think the pressing concerns (beyond any more sanctions) are to quickly start to change our societies to get us ready for the next ten or twenty years - things like food production / security, which I should have mentioned in the post above (where the entire continent can learn from what the Dutch have done). We can do that now, and we should.

Yes. The other main area of focus must surely be energy security. I can't see how any rational western government could possibly continue to argue against a pivot away from imported fossil fuels. Spain and the South of France must surely consider building large scale solar farms, Germany may well restart their nuclear power program, Norway and the UK must work together regarding North Sea oil and gas in the short term but UK should be investing heavily in wind, offshore tidal, and domestic solar power. And for goodness' sake, a UK nuclear power program that is nOT subcontracted out entirely to China!

 

[tsubaki]

This is the best possible scenario. It means the fewest lives lost.

It's so easy to get caught up in anger with Russia's actions here, but the footage of teenage Russian conscripts surrendering and being protected by Ukrainian civilians giving them food, hot drinks and access to phones to call their parents has served as a MASSIVE moral anchor. So many of these Russian troops deserve nothing but sympathy, support and a safe passage home.

If it wasn't for what might happen to them when they get back, I'd be in favour of repatriating them via the EU, especially the wounded - it will save the expense of the Ukrainians having to house them, plus it would be another soft-power thing for the Russians to explain.

 

[tsubaki]

Yes. The other main area of focus must surely be energy security. I can't see how any rational western government could possibly continue to argue against a pivot away from imported fossil fuels. Spain and the South of France must surely consider building large scale solar farms, Germany may well restart their nuclear power program, Norway and the UK must work together regarding North Sea oil and gas in the short term but UK should be investing heavily in wind, offshore tidal, and domestic solar power. And for goodness' sake, a UK nuclear power program that is nOT subcontracted out entirely to China!

Indeed, and of course it should be no surprise that the RW types who were the ones taking Russian money (some GOP, Farage and Tice, some Tories) are busily insisting that we should do the opposite of what you correctly suggest.

 

[Tree13]

Only significance is that a tiny Palestinian outlet broke the news 2 hours before Israeli and world media picked up on it.

The company has ties with Mohammed Dahlan, arch-rival of Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. Dahlan has good contacts in Moscow so I would guess the leak came from there.

Apparently Zelensky had previously asked Bennett, and before him Netanyahu, to mediate between the two countries but Putin had always said no until now. Don't know if that has any significance or whether Putin is just trying to show that he's open to negotiations.

Meeting lasted for 3 hours but a good chunk of that was probably Putin lecturing Bennett about Russian history!

Either that or it was just one powerpoint presentation given by Bennett, entitled "How to tell the difference between Nazis and Jews: a beginner's guide."

Thanks for the explanation mate, much appreciated.

 

[tsubaki]

Definitely a worrying sub-plot in all of this. South Africa, in particular, seems to be sliding headlong towards chaos and is unusually forgiving of Putin's despotic behaviour. The corruption in SA politics is absolutely out of control and entire industry sectors there are a complete train wreck.

Indeed, and there does seem to be a focus on "big man"-ruled countries, or facilitating the rise of such creatures.

 

[Tree13]

Indeed, and of course it should be no surprise that the RW types who were the ones taking Russian money (some GOP, Farage and Tice, some Tories) are busily insisting that we should do the opposite of what you correctly suggest.

When I run as a Tory MP candidate I will be proud to have you on my campaign team

 

[Big Sams Undies]

Translation from a supposed authentic leak by an FSB insider. Realy interesting

Best part in all of that:
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces.

Absolutely fkin brilliant.

 

[everton fan number one]

The economic and financial sanctions aren't gonna turn regular Russians against Putin at all. It's just gonna anger them more and make them turn against the West. Read up what Treaty of Versailles after WW1 did to the Germans.

That's why you've got to dangle the carrot of removing the sanctions. Plus they're engaged in an active war, whereas Versaills was after the fact.

 

[Tree13]

Best part in all of that:
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces.

Absolutely fkin brilliant.

I'd love everything in that twitter thread to be true. However, that's the very reason it may well be disinformation released deliberately by one party or another - it appeals to anyone on Ukraine's "side" because it's so positive to their cause, and therefore they start forward planning on the basis of things assumed to be true.

If it is true, then I agree 100% about Kadrov. I won't shed a tear over him.

 

[everton fan number one]

Bro, I think you have been viewing some echo chambers online and now feel that Putin is unpopular with the Russians, which couldn't be any further from the truth. The fact is, many Russians believe in Putin and still believe that he is doing Russia a service by bringing back the glory days. Russians are enabling this war. The protests against Ukraine in cities like Paris, Berlin or Prague racked up more protesters than Russia's version of "anti-war" protests.
A BBC report yesterday reported that this girl living in Ukraine was complaining that her mother, who lives in Russia, was not believing anything about the reality of the war and Russia's aggression. In their mind, Russia is the liberator and it's "manifest destiny" for Russia to control Ukraine.
Today, there was some Russian 18 year old gymnastic kid who was competing in the world championships and wore the "Z" necklace to show support for his nation's invasion. The Russian football team's captain came out with a statement barely condemning the war and his biggest complaint was how Russia was being treated internationally. Russians aren't against Putin, maybe the young generations living in Moscow/SPB that browse on Reddit but that's not enough to make a regime change.

Russia lived through the late 90s and through the struggles of USSR, what makes you believe that these sanctions will somehow induce a revolution?

Notwithstanding your interesting point about the gymnasts, I think there's a sharp divide on this point between those alive during the USSR and the younger generations. The 19 year olds in the army probably have little desire to re-establish the USSR.

Actually, even Putin doesn't want to re-rstablish the USSR. His dicatator-like behavior stems from an idealistic view of the Russian empire pre-USSR. He's described socialism as a "nice fairytale" that doesn't work.

There's not going to be a revolution but net sentiment in Moscow is probably most important.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

THREAD

 

[bluebud]

The Belarusian convoy in the North left this morning back to Belarus, they refused to engage, hopefully they go back and overthrow Lukashenko now.

 

[bluebud]

Russia's aircraft losses yesterday.

 

[Yarrgh]

The problem from the Ukrainian perspective is that if they surrender the Donbass, the Crimea and a strip of land linking the two then they are reducing themselves to being a landlocked nation with few natural resources beyond the agricultural production of wheat and other similar grains. The geopolitical risk of doing that is:

1) maybe in a few years' time the West won't care if Putin marches in and takes the rest. America can ramp up agricultural production easily enough and would do so if the market opportunity was there; and

2) the Ukrainian yearly national income will be smaller per annum from hereon, meaning they cannot effectively replace the troops and munitions lost. Their new, reduced budget won't support it. That means they could not mount a defence of the same intensity as this current one.

The Ukrainians MUST have better strategists in their government and military than any of us on here, so if I can spot the issue then they must have too. They simply cannot afford to come out of this without getting the Crimea back. They could probably continue to grow as a nation even if they permanently cede the Donbass to Russia, but if they lose the Crimea permanently too then I think their country will wither and die over a prolonged period. For the West, Ukraine WITH Crimea is a useful asset/ally/trading partner, but without Crimea.... what's the Western interest at that point?

Could be wrong and I REALLY hope I am.

I don't see the Crimea leaving Russia's grasp any time soon.

Only time will tell though.