Current Affairs Ukraine

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PhilM said:
However, I don’t think they can afford the risk of financial implications that would result from an invasion, regardless of their threats to the internet and gas supplies.

I still think this is more likely to die down more than get worse, at least for a while.
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They can’t afford any of these outcomes - if they invade, it’s going to result in a conflict that lasts for ages, an expanded NATO and a new arms race. The gas leverage will reduce a lot, his influence peddling via Western politicians will become illegal and eventually the bigger Western economies will crush him.

If he backs down, the chances of his removal increase - this is something that happens with all dictators of course, lose a war and someone usually has a go.

If he “wins”, the Chinese will eventually eat him.

The only long term possibility left is some kind of rationalisation of Crimea’s status (which really was given to the then Ukrainian SSR in very strange circumstances) and a gradual calming of tension, possibly including Russian membership of NATO.
 
tsubaki said:
They can’t afford any of these outcomes - if they invade, it’s going to result in a conflict that lasts for ages, an expanded NATO and a new arms race. The gas leverage will reduce a lot, his influence peddling via Western politicians will become illegal and eventually the bigger Western economies will crush him.

If he backs down, the chances of his removal increase - this is something that happens with all dictators of course, lose a war and someone usually has a go.

If he “wins”, the Chinese will eventually eat him.

The only long term possibility left is some kind of rationalisation of Crimea’s status (which really was given to the then Ukrainian SSR in very strange circumstances) and a gradual calming of tension, possibly including Russian membership of NATO.
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Reckon people still see Russia as communists rather than deregulated capitalist outfit that likes cronyism.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
The US state dept issued the communique to the media in an unprecedented move of declassifying and releasing intel.

All the media outlets are running with it. The source is the white house/NSA
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So it's from a completely unbiased source then...
 
Yarrgh said:
So it's from a completely unbiased source then...
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Well where else would it come from?

Who else has the capability to capture and disseminate this type of intel?

And as a few posters on this thread pointed out - historically this sort of thing has happened many times before as a prelude to conflict.

Again it’s information - it’s up to the individual to believe it or not. Personally given Putins track record, I believe it to be real.
 
Thank god for the USA, declassifying all that secret intel. Let's hope they know more now than about that other false flag operation in Syria.
Thank god they gave the Ukraine forces ultramodern weaponry to defend themselves, making this a fairer fight. The local population thanks them for the increased chance of dying in a prolonged conflict.
Thank god for Joe Biden. One year in and we have another war on our hands. Give him the Nobel Peace prize.


Let's just hope that all nuclear weapons are effectively sold and out of the warzone...

Putin has already won on one front. The European bloc is non-factor. He talks to Biden and nobody else. Despite all the talk about Europe becoming another big player on the international scene, pushing Russia into irrelevancy, nothing has changed. They can't even resolve an issue in their own backyard.
 
tsubaki said:
The only long term possibility left is some kind of rationalisation of Crimea’s status (which really was given to the then Ukrainian SSR in very strange circumstances) and a gradual calming of tension, possibly including Russian membership of NATO.
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I agree with this as a potential solution. I detest the concept of NATO as I believe it now only exists to maintain its own existence and is a drain on its members' resources. However Russia being within NATO would bring them into gradual alignment with the west and provide a long term more unified approach to China.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
Well where else would it come from?

Who else has the capability to capture and disseminate this type of intel?

And as a few posters on this thread pointed out - historically this sort of thing has happened many times before as a prelude to conflict.

Again it’s information - it’s up to the individual to believe it or not. Personally given Putins track record, I believe it to be real.
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I trust the USA as much as I trust Russia.
 
tsubaki said:
They can’t afford any of these outcomes - if they invade, it’s going to result in a conflict that lasts for ages, an expanded NATO and a new arms race. The gas leverage will reduce a lot, his influence peddling via Western politicians will become illegal and eventually the bigger Western economies will crush him.

If he backs down, the chances of his removal increase - this is something that happens with all dictators of course, lose a war and someone usually has a go.

If he “wins”, the Chinese will eventually eat him.

The only long term possibility left is some kind of rationalisation of Crimea’s status (which really was given to the then Ukrainian SSR in very strange circumstances) and a gradual calming of tension, possibly including Russian membership of NATO.
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Russians in NATO. Now there’s a thought. Deffo would rather have Putin inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.
 
FrenchDarrenBent said:
Putin has already won on one front. The European bloc is non-factor. He talks to Biden and nobody else. Despite all the talk about Europe becoming another big player on the international scene, pushing Russia into irrelevancy, nothing has changed. They can't even resolve an issue in their own backyard.
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They don't have enough weapons to pose a credible deterrent threat. Soft power is good for avoiding confrontations. It does little to resolve them once they occur.

Yarrgh said:
I trust the USA as much as I trust Russia.
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I live here, and I don't trust our government at any levels - federal, state or local. That said, consider the situation. Crying wolf here is a terrible idea. The United States government has enough credibility problems post-Iraq. It doesn't need more of them, and needlessly antagonizing Putin isn't in its interest either.
 
Germany today refused a request from Ukraine to supply them with defensive weapons and ammunition.

The U.K. however agreed to supply Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and ammunition.

One thing to note though is that Germany refused the U.K. aircraft carrying the weapons to fly over their airspace!

Germany is obviously crapping itself that Vlad will turn off the gas if they’re seen to interfere.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
Germany today refused a request from Ukraine to supply them with defensive weapons and ammunition.

The U.K. however agreed to supply Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and ammunition.

One thing to note though is that Germany refused the U.K. aircraft carrying the weapons to fly over their airspace!

Germany is obviously crapping itself that Vlad will turn off the gas if they’re seen to interfere.
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Germany is under the thumb of Russia. Merkel was always their agent. Germany is stuffed.

I think Putin will attack, he has little to lose
 
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