I think that Putin (with support from China and Iran) is going to do whatever he can to destroy us from within without a direct confrontation with NATO. He has been doing so for years and MI5 had identified he was stepping things up.
Here's another link to the briefing from October.
In a wide-ranging speech, Ken McCallum also revealed MI5 had responded to 20 plots backed by Iran since 2022.
www.bbc.co.uk
This is one viewpoint, but I think it does tend to completely ignore the very real aspects that are probably present in a lot of the thinking behind what leadership in Iran, China and especially Russia are doing.
For a start, since the Cold War ended it is an established fact that the US has sought to refashion the world in ways that are inherently destructive. Afghanistan was understandable (and let’s not forget that initially Iran and Russia actually helped the US there), but almost everything else only really makes sense as an attempt to seize key global resources (which PNAC openly called for) or because they’d gone mad. Neither are going to make the other powers do anything other than come together for mutual benefit. Iran for example was clearly on the menu for regime change as early as late 2001, so why anyone would be surprised that they’ve developed an indigenous military industry, rearmed or are seeking the one think that would get them off the menu is a mystery to me.
For Russia, it’s abominable and self-destructive what he’s done but he also saw Ukraine leave his orbit in 2014, Belarus almost leave it in 2020 and it’s taken the creation of the modern Russian state and constant effort to stop his own people wanting something that may not to be to their long term interests either (friendliness with the US on these terms).
Allied to that is the way in which the US treats its allies. Right from the aftermath of WW2, where Truman and then Eisenhower binned off any pretensions we had to remain a great power, it’s been abundantly clear that only their opinion matters. There are loads of examples of this - demands for economic changes or reform that they then exploit, regime changes, political interference, several attempts to paralyze the EU and so on but my favourite is the argument Western Europe (and reality) had with them over the standard NATO rifle cartridge.
Recent military experience, logic, economics and the operation of then new assault rifles all pointed to an intermediate cartridge smaller than 30/06. They - or rather people in their Ordnance Department - wanted a more powerful one instead, so they chose that one for everyone (7.62 NATO). Then, after everyone had spent money adopting it, they changed their minds and brought in 5.56, making everyone change again at further expanse (which they benefited from).
Finally there is the internet. For the first time, most of the world can talk to other parts of the world, and in the main this has been a great thing. However if you are talking about weaponising it then this begins with them - the social media firms came from the US (TikTok coming later), as did data mining, social targeting using that data and proving services allowing dictators and anyone else to use that. Where they didn’t provide a service their closest ally (Israel) did.
On top of this (and forgive me if this sounds like a Petersonian rant) there is the attempt to homogenize opinion and moral behavior based on their models, ignoring local mores and customs wherever they conflict with whatever they want. It would be one thing if the standard was simple and maintained -eg: respect and be kind to each other, everyone has equal rights, live honestly etc but a lot of what comes out is contradictory within itself (like self-definition of biological characteristics) never mind with other local beliefs and it’s all delivered in a hectoring, bullying style from people who are often openly hypocritical. The abuse suffered by gay and lesbian people for example in parts of the world (especially Africa) are not met with patient education or explanation tailored for local consumption aimed at stopping it, it’s met with the worst kind of superior Western sneering that is doing nothing to eradicate the problem at hand.
All in all I think there’s an urgent need for us to realise how we in the West are perceived, and that this is at least as important as tooling up is. Much of Western society is admired and wants to be emulated, and at our best we really are the ones who have the right idea but it’s these bits I have mentioned above that detract from it massively.
