Current Affairs Ukraine

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You don’t work with anyone. You can barely drag your fat arse off your commode, you crusty old fart.

I don't get an 'old fart' vibe personally, nailed on that davids is one of them teenage incels pretending to have a job & family whilst sitting in a basement somewhere, getting tumescent posting about his lad Vlad's gains.

I'm sure anyone unfortunate to have an actual davids in their life would be disowning them first opportunity.
 
I don't get an 'old fart' vibe personally, nailed on that davids is one of them teenage incels pretending to have a job & family whilst sitting in a basement somewhere, getting tumescent posting about his lad Vlad's gains.

I'm sure anyone unfortunate to have an actual davids in their life would be disowning them first opportunity.
Previous posts in this and other threads allow his age to be pinpointed in the old fart bracket. I’d say he’s mid-70’s and extremely boring.
 
Do you read the Guardian's daily updates? Last few days have been topped by somewhat negative pieces towards Ukraine. Mood music changing? Or am I reading too much into it.
Ukraine will be forced into ceding a yet to be defined slice of their sovereign territory to Russia, pretty sure that will be the outcome.
 
Ukraine will be forced into ceding a yet to be defined slice of their sovereign territory to Russia, pretty sure that will be the outcome.

I don't think that's really in doubt, the bigger question is going to be what happens to the Ukrainian government afterwards. Given that the entire Russian pretext for the invasion is an aggressive NATO pushing towards their border then whatever gains they make territorially it would be considered a failure to allow a free Ukrainian government to continue talks with the EU/NATO etc and move them further into the Western orbit. They'll insist on Zelenskyy stepping down (and might well find him a convenient window, which I'm sure Dave will be ecstatic about) and then want to install some Kremlin puppet.

So really the battles are over gaining the amount of influence needed to be in control of a post-invasion Ukraine, whatever the borders.
 
I don't think that's really in doubt, the bigger question is going to be what happens to the Ukrainian government afterwards. Given that the entire Russian pretext for the invasion is an aggressive NATO pushing towards their border then whatever gains they make territorially it would be considered a failure to allow a free Ukrainian government to continue talks with the EU/NATO etc and move them further into the Western orbit. They'll insist on Zelenskyy stepping down (and might well find him a convenient window, which I'm sure Dave will be ecstatic about) and then want to install some Kremlin puppet.

So really the battles are over gaining the amount of influence needed to be in control of a post-invasion Ukraine, whatever the borders.

The problem that Russian (then Soviet, and now Russian again) policy over Ukraine has been that it has created and is actively sustaining the desire to be something different than Russian. They could have smashed Ukraine back in February 2022 and imprisoned or windowed every "nationalist agitator" they could find, established "patriotic education" for all and there would still be many more Ukranians afterwards, simply because the state would never let them forget that they were hohols and "not like us". People would (and did, three times) leap at the chance to get away from them and would side with literally anyone who helped them do that.

Russian policy over Ukraine - and the rest of the states it considers in its orbit - only ever works long term when Russia recognizes that the states are independent, that there is an agreement between everyone where the red lines are which is respected and that the agreement benefits both sides. If the end of this war is no EU/NATO membership then that must mean there is no interference in Ukrainian politics, the Ukrainian state is capable of defending itself, it is not threatened and that trade resumes between the two neighbours.

I have mentioned it before on here but the post-WW2 Finland model is precisely what diplomats should be looking at.
 
I can't see many Ukrainians fancying going back to half a country with an ever growing threat built up in what was formerly Ukraine only a stones throw from their new start. Also, the grain basket of the world, how will that be divvied up and firstly de-mined and then brought under the plough again? Who get's the ports for exports for instance.
There's bodies, and kidnaps, and rape and pillage to be faced, this won't be small white picket fences and perfectly manicured front lawns.

If there is a DMZ and a new soviet wall, can it be manned and protected and then the new 'west Ukraine' be run with western affluence to corrode the 'left Ukraine' from within? Do sanctions stay on russia forever? where's those gas pipes going? And when sold out soldiers and similar form their 'Ukrainian Peoples Army' to engage in guerilla tactics against russians and russian assets?

Establishing a state and policing it and paying for it seems a very tall order at the moment. Maybe belarus could be severely punished to up the ante somewhat. Surely all drug companies could be forced to embargo them? Total denial of all import and exports? Sanction all banks? Starve them out, it's a siege. With russia under greater financial burden, make them carry belarus as well, stoke a bit of tension.

Who do the russian state commanders have lined up for putin's replacement? It won't be a yeltsin, the massive alky clown.
 
The problem that Russian (then Soviet, and now Russian again) policy over Ukraine has been that it has created and is actively sustaining the desire to be something different than Russian. They could have smashed Ukraine back in February 2022 and imprisoned or windowed every "nationalist agitator" they could find, established "patriotic education" for all and there would still be many more Ukranians afterwards, simply because the state would never let them forget that they were hohols and "not like us". People would (and did, three times) leap at the chance to get away from them and would side with literally anyone who helped them do that.

Russian policy over Ukraine - and the rest of the states it considers in its orbit - only ever works long term when Russia recognizes that the states are independent, that there is an agreement between everyone where the red lines are which is respected and that the agreement benefits both sides. If the end of this war is no EU/NATO membership then that must mean there is no interference in Ukrainian politics, the Ukrainian state is capable of defending itself, it is not threatened and that trade resumes between the two neighbours.

I have mentioned it before on here but the post-WW2 Finland model is precisely what diplomats should be looking at.
Ukrainians, particularly during the Euromaidan protests in 2013-2014, perceived the previous administration of Yanukovych as being Putin’s stooge and overly aligned with Russian interests and not acting in the best interest of Ukraine's sovereignty or independence. Yanukovych's decision to reject an association agreement with the European Union, under pressure from Russia, sparked the massive protests, which eventually led to him getting booted

The Euromaidan movement was driven by a Ukrainians as they wanted closer ties with the West (EU/NATO) and resented what they saw as Russian interference in their domestic politics. The protests and subsequent change in government highlighted the divide between those favouring European integration and those the Russians who have been seeded in the east and Crimea (much the same as Israel settlers in Palestinian areas), who either supported closer ties with Russia or viewed Ukraine as naturally part of Russia's sphere of influence.

The perception that Yanukovych was more of a proxy for Putin's influence rather than an independent leader of Ukraine was a major factor in the unrest, leading to the revolution. After his removal, Russia demonstyrated exactly why Ukrainians are right to to fear Russia as they annexed Crimea and backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, which escalated into this horrendous war.

A model to erode Russia’s ability to invade and control nations that do not want to be under their control is exactly what the west is supporting.
 
I can't see many Ukrainians fancying going back to half a country with an ever growing threat built up in what was formerly Ukraine only a stones throw from their new start. Also, the grain basket of the world, how will that be divvied up and firstly de-mined and then brought under the plough again? Who get's the ports for exports for instance.
There's bodies, and kidnaps, and rape and pillage to be faced, this won't be small white picket fences and perfectly manicured front lawns.

If there is a DMZ and a new soviet wall, can it be manned and protected and then the new 'west Ukraine' be run with western affluence to corrode the 'left Ukraine' from within? Do sanctions stay on russia forever? where's those gas pipes going? And when sold out soldiers and similar form their 'Ukrainian Peoples Army' to engage in guerilla tactics against russians and russian assets?

Establishing a state and policing it and paying for it seems a very tall order at the moment. Maybe belarus could be severely punished to up the ante somewhat. Surely all drug companies could be forced to embargo them? Total denial of all import and exports? Sanction all banks? Starve them out, it's a siege. With russia under greater financial burden, make them carry belarus as well, stoke a bit of tension.

Who do the russian state commanders have lined up for putin's replacement? It won't be a yeltsin, the massive alky clown.
Don't worry about it. What will be will be. If there's money to be made, everything will normalise soon enough. Give it a few years and it'll be like Ossetia and Georgia- when is the last time you thought of them?

Better off worrying about Europe veering into the far right and hoping we'll be friends with Russia in a few years time in case that kicks off...
 
Horrendous. The sooner Russians are free from the mirderous regime in the Kremlin the better.

The numbers in the first link (show more) are terrible. All those young Russians lives thrown into Putins meat grinder.



Don't forget to check under the bed for reds!

You mock davids then go into parody mode.
 
A model to erode Russia’s ability to invade and control nations that do not want to be under their control is exactly what the west is supporting.

This sounds a bit grim tbh, as it reads as if western money and “support” is purely for self interest or a “greater” fight which feeds into the opinion of some in this thread that Ukrainian lives are just being used at this point

What is the model you mention, how you would see it?

I think I’ve said before that I don’t know how I would feel as a citizen of a country weighing up what is best for your nation. Keep fighting without knowing what is the real hope of pushing them out completely, at the loss of tens of thousands more lives including possibly your own, or feel it’s all too much and want it to stop and hope any treaty would hold and some normality would resume even though you’d fear more will come again down the line as you don’t trust whoever is in power in Russia. I don’t know any of us can say what you would want, or would ask of your government in this terrible situation that a relatively small number of evil scumbags in Russia have created.

In a situation where the population thinks more and more on some kind of deal, will their government and the western nations supporting them listen and broker it. Or do they continue with their preferred model?

Geopolitics is very ugly

(Not all a big long question or point directed at you, just thoughts on reading that paragraph. How does this end)
 
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