Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Ukraine will be forced into ceding a yet to be defined slice of their sovereign territory to Russia, pretty sure that will be the outcome.

Yup I’d agree. They will have to cede Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts but should get back Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

They hand back Kursk Oblast to Russia and Ukraine gets NATO membership.

50km DMZ on all borders - that would be my take.

 

[davids]

Whataboutism is what I said David.

Semantics, Ukraine and the West are supposed to be better. Putin does the execution without trial.

 

[davids]

Previous posts in this and other threads allow his age to be pinpointed in the old fart bracket. I’d say he’s mid-70’s and extremely boring.

But not a military Walter Mitty. And it's early 70s if you don't mind.

 

[davids]

I don't think that's really in doubt, the bigger question is going to be what happens to the Ukrainian government afterwards. Given that the entire Russian pretext for the invasion is an aggressive NATO pushing towards their border then whatever gains they make territorially it would be considered a failure to allow a free Ukrainian government to continue talks with the EU/NATO etc and move them further into the Western orbit. They'll insist on Zelenskyy stepping down (and might well find him a convenient window, which I'm sure Dave will be ecstatic about) and then want to install some Kremlin puppet.

So really the battles are over gaining the amount of influence needed to be in control of a post-invasion Ukraine, whatever the borders.

But once the F16s are in service the whole situation will change. Zelenskyy has promised Russia will be out in a position where they can't win. Crimea will be Ukrainian once again Haven't you read the Victory Plan.

 

[davids]

Fond of quiet Spanish kids etc

Grammar melt down?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

But not a military Walter Mitty. And it's early 70s if you don't mind.

It’s okay Frenchie lad. You’re still an old fart

 

[davids]

For the lads at work.

They don't want your usual cut and paste,it's your words of wisdom and deep insights into geopolitical outcomes... however bad the spelling is or how mangled the grammar.
Tell us again about the F16s being a game changer,we like that one.

 

[Bedfordblue]

Russia today managed to shoot down their own latest stealth drone

I do wonder whether the Russians (if it was red on red) had lost control of it / it had been hacked and shot it down on purpose.
Footage suggests they were well within visual range to be able to identify it.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I do wonder whether the Russians (if it was red on red) had lost control of it / it had been hacked and shot it down on purpose.
Footage suggests they were well within visual range to be able to identify it.

Possibly. It’s very new tech. Smacks of desperation though deploying a supposedly advanced tech platform directly into the maelstrom of the war in Ukraine.

They only have 3 of these built and now they’ve lost one and you can bet your house on it that the remains of it are now sitting in Nevada being dissected by a myriad of techs and scientists.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

They don't want your usual cut and paste,it's your words of wisdom and deep insights into geopolitical outcomes... however bad the spelling is or how mangled the grammar.
Tell us again about the F16s being a game changer,we like that one.

So are you still working with your non-existent workmates in your”early” 70’s or are you bullshitting as usual?

 

[Yarrgh]

I do wonder whether the Russians (if it was red on red) had lost control of it / it had been hacked and shot it down on purpose.
Footage suggests they were well within visual range to be able to identify it.

Lost control and down it had to come. Sources now saying that the crash site was hit by an iskander and took out some western "investigators" going to look at the wreckage.

I think losing control and shooting it down sounds feasible but the missile bit sounds off and suspect that it will be under the microscope far away to see what can be discerned from whatever is left.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Lost control and down it had to come. Sources now saying that the crash site was hit by an iskander and took out some western "investigators" going to look at the wreckage.

I think losing control and shooting it down sounds feasible but the missile bit sounds off and suspect that it will be under the microscope far away to see what can be discerned from whatever is left.

If this indeed a picture of the wreckage then I very much doubt the SU-70 was very stealthy at all, as there’s pop rivets aots. Radar sig returns would be bouncing off those.

 

[Rita_Poon]

If this indeed a picture of the wreckage then I very much doubt the SU-70 was very stealthy at all, as there’s pop rivets aots. Radar sig returns would be bouncing off those.

That pic seems very odd because of where the pain is, and then isn't.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This sounds a bit grim tbh, as it reads as if western money and “support” is purely for self interest or a “greater” fight which feeds into the opinion of some in this thread that Ukrainian lives are just being used at this point

What is the model you mention, how you would see it?

I think I’ve said before that I don’t know how I would feel as a citizen of a country weighing up what is best for your nation. Keep fighting without knowing what is the real hope of pushing them out completely, at the loss of tens of thousands more lives including possibly your own, or feel it’s all too much and want it to stop and hope any treaty would hold and some normality would resume even though you’d fear more will come again down the line as you don’t trust whoever is in power in Russia. I don’t know any of us can say what you would want, or would ask of your government in this terrible situation that a relatively small number of evil scumbags in Russia have created.

In a situation where the population thinks more and more on some kind of deal, will their government and the western nations supporting them listen and broker it. Or do they continue with their preferred model?

Geopolitics is very ugly

(Not all a big long question or point directed at you, just thoughts on reading that paragraph. How does this end)

Sorry, just back from the pub. You're right, geopolitics is ugly, and this situation is filled with difficult choices. The model I'm referring to is essentially one where a coalition of nations strengthens the defense capabilities of vulnerable countries to prevent future invasions, thereby reducing Russia’s ability to expand its influence through force. The west is providing weapons, training, and intelligence to Ukraine, not just as an act of self-interest, but also as part of a broader strategy to deter future aggression. However, it's crucial to recognise that the support does come with the risk that some see it as a proxy conflict, which can easily lead to perceptions of Ukrainian lives being used for larger geopolitical goals.

When it comes to the will of the Ukrainian people, their voices should be at the forefront. If they ever do reach a point where peace is preferred, despite the potential risks of future aggression, then I hope that the west would respect that and support a peaceful resolution. But at the same time, there's a very real fear that any deal could be temporary, and Russia might take advantage of it down the line. Also as mentioned previously thst the conflict would continue as an insurgency. So, it's a deeply challenging scenario, balancing hope for peace with the grim reality of potential future conflict.

Ultimately, it's up to Ukraine to decide when enough is enough. The rest of the world can provide support, but not dictate the terms of their struggle or peace. As long as they are set upon repelling the invaders we should support them.

Russia and dictators like Putin need to be faced dor the sake of what remains of democracy.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Grammar melt down?

Meltdown? Potypos!