Current Affairs Ukraine

[edge]

@davek ....

Ukraine have domestically produced long range strike. As @Mutzo Nutzo and I have repeatedly told you.

This includes FPV drones and/or cruise and ballistic missiles

Said this a while back.
They are after funding and supply of tech parts to vastly expand there production of long range weapons.
There capacity to produce them is nowhere near the levels they are capable off.
Think Poland have given them help the last few weeks, and rumours the UK is doing similar.

 

[Bedfordblue]

Said this a while back.
They are after funding and supply of tech parts to vastly expand there production of long range weapons.
There capacity to produce them is nowhere near the levels they are capable off.
Think Poland have given them help the last few weeks, and rumours the UK is doing similar.

Probably a dumb question, Are they supposed to be to scale with the outline of the human there? ATACMS can’t be smaller than Storm Shadow surely

 

[Bedfordblue]

Only just begun... What a joke!

Tankers carrying Russian gas face UK sanctions for first time

A gap in the Russian sanctions regime covering its vast LNG exports comes under UK controls but the crackdown is not without its problems, Sky's Ed Conway writes.

news.sky.com

Ahhhh just in time for winter and my bill to go through the roof again then.
Edit - to go even further through the roof

 

[Damo_1878]

Said this a while back.
They are after funding and supply of tech parts to vastly expand there production of long range weapons.
There capacity to produce them is nowhere near the levels they are capable off.
Think Poland have given them help the last few weeks, and rumours the UK is doing similar.

They still don't have the necessary "mass" in terms of production to defeat Russia alone, but... they have sufficient production to cause Russia significant economic damage and to it's war machine

The Bank of Russia's own economic projections only go to early 2025 after which it is presumed that the war will have already ended. Basically, Russia in the next year is going to be unable to sustain the "sticking plaster" it has through government spending and things will start to decline rapidly.

Think mass inflation. Inability to increase payments to workers and soldiers etc.

This was what Zelensky meant when he said this :

War with Russia closer to end than we think - Zelensky

Russia-Ukraine: War closer to the end than some think, Zelensky says

The Ukrainian president says his country has to be "very strong" to push Russia to the negotiating table.

www.bbc.co.uk

People like @davek are so focused on what is happening in the south and aren't looking at the true strategic picture.

But that is @davek for you.

They also seem to confuse the last two years where the Russian government has spent extraordinary sums of money to keep the lights on and things moving. It cannot do that indefinitely. It's in an unsustainable position. The Russian budget literally doesn't account for the war continuing in 2025

The Russian economy is going to be in the toilet in 2025 and 2026. The literal toilet.

 

[Damo_1878]

Only just begun... What a joke!

Tankers carrying Russian gas face UK sanctions for first time

A gap in the Russian sanctions regime covering its vast LNG exports comes under UK controls but the crackdown is not without its problems, Sky's Ed Conway writes.

news.sky.com

Ahhhh just in time for winter and my bill to go through the roof again then.
Edit - to go even further through the roof

You guys and the author of that story Ed Conway at Sky News have misunderstood what that story relates to

Its is the start of what is known as "secondary sanctions"

The UK Government is going after Maritime Insurers. If they insure ships that carry Russian Gas Cargos to third countries they are going to be sanctioned.

So for example, if a British insured ship takes LNG from Russia to India it will be sanctioned

It's another economic lever. That is now being pulled.

People also need to understand that aim of the sanctions was never to completely stop the flow of Russian gas to the world market (e.g. India and others), as it would have disastrous impacts to the global economy and world energy markets. It was to increase economic pressure with time...

Basically, they are starting with a new round of pressure

The sanctions regime was about inflicting more harm to the Russian economy than the western economies. So clearly they now think now is the time to start going after more targets and through "secondary sanctions"

None of this will completely take Russian hydrocarbons off the market. That isn't the intent. It's to make things harder and harder and costlier and costlier with time on the Russian economy.

See my last post.

When people say "it's only just begun ... what a joke" they are fundamentally not understanding what the G7 sanctions plan and so on was meant to do. It's meant to inflict the economic pain on Russia. That increases with time.

 

[Bedfordblue]

You guys and the author of that story Ed Conway at Sky News have misunderstood what that story relates to

Its is the start of what is known as "secondary sanctions"

The UK Government is going after Maritime Insurers. If they insure ships that carry Russian Gas Cargos to third countries they are going to be sanctioned.

So for example, if a British insured ship takes LNG from Russia to India it will be sanctioned

It's another economic lever. That is now being pulled.

People also need to understand that aim of the sanctions was never to completely stop the flow of Russian gas to the world market (e.g. India and others), as it would have disastrous impacts to the global economy and world energy markets. It was to increase economic pressure with time...

Basically, they are starting with a new round of pressure

The sanctions regime was about inflicting more harm to the Russian economy than the western economies. So clearly they now think now is the time to start going after more targets and through "secondary sanctions"

None of this will completely take Russian hydrocarbons off the market. That isn't the intent. It's to make things harder and harder and costlier and costlier with time on the Russian economy.

See my last post.

When people say "it's only just begun ... what a joke" they are fundamentally not understanding what the G7 sanctions plan and so on was meant to do. It's meant to inflict the economic pain on Russia. That increases with time.

Will it affect the price of wholesale gas in the UK?

 

[Damo_1878]

Will it affect the price of wholesale gas in the UK?

This is the trick, the desire is for it to not have a significant effect on UK/EU/US or friendly economy wholesale gas prices. By ensuring adequate alternative supply is already in place.

If this was implemented two years ago, then that is an immediate economic shock

Maritime and Gas Industry has no time to adapt to alternatives etc

India and China both thirsty for energy also seeking same supplies which drives up global prices

So a balancing act has to be had, that tries to put the costs on to Russia not onto average joe in the west

Its like chipping away, they'll start small, see how that affects things, bit more, see how it affects things a bit more and a bit more etc

If we started over the last two years just banning everything Russia, everywhere it harms our economies.

The sanctions are to put the economic costs onto Russia. Increasing with time.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Russia will visit Stagflation very soon.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Russia will visit Stagflation very soon.

It's probably another 12 months before they're in trouble.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

It's probably another 12 months before they're in trouble.

Yes, it is becoming inevitable but that time table is fast approaching.

 

[davek]

Russia will visit Stagflation very soon.

We pronounce it 'Stalingrad'.

 

[Chewbacca]

We pronounce it 'Stalingrad'.

Is that right Comrade?

 

[Yarrgh]

They still don't have the necessary "mass" in terms of production to defeat Russia alone, but... they have sufficient production to cause Russia significant economic damage and to it's war machine

The Bank of Russia's own economic projections only go to early 2025 after which it is presumed that the war will have already ended. Basically, Russia in the next year is going to be unable to sustain the "sticking plaster" it has through government spending and things will start to decline rapidly.

Think mass inflation. Inability to increase payments to workers and soldiers etc.

This was what Zelensky meant when he said this :

War with Russia closer to end than we think - Zelensky

Russia-Ukraine: War closer to the end than some think, Zelensky says

The Ukrainian president says his country has to be "very strong" to push Russia to the negotiating table.

www.bbc.co.uk

People like @davek are so focused on what is happening in the south and aren't looking at the true strategic picture.

But that is @davek for you.

They also seem to confuse the last two years where the Russian government has spent extraordinary sums of money to keep the lights on and things moving. It cannot do that indefinitely. It's in an unsustainable position. The Russian budget literally doesn't account for the war continuing in 2025

The Russian economy is going to be in the toilet in 2025 and 2026. The literal toilet.

Uh... except you've just made that up haven't you? Earlier this week the Russian government has literally issued what the expected spending on the war is expected to be in 2025 (6.2% of GDP) and 26 (5.7%). And that decrease in percentage is because the spending in absolute terms should be the same but the economy is forecast to expand.

 

[Damo_1878]

Uh... except you've just made that up haven't you? Earlier this week the Russian government has literally issued what the expected spending on the war is expected to be in 2025 (6.2% of GDP) and 26 (5.7%). And that decrease in percentage is because the spending in absolute terms should be the same but the economy is forecast to expand.

It's not "made up". Go watch Perun on YouTube

 

[Yarrgh]

It's not "made up". Go watch Perun on YouTube

Oh no, an anonymous youtuber has made a claim so it must be true.

I apologise whole heartedly. I will just write an email to Forbes and tell them this week’s article about it is untrue, and then spend a little more time to compose a letter Russian to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to tell them they have been cyber attacked into stating the budgets and military spending for the next 2 years. Boy do I have egg on my face but not as much as them, or kyivindependent.ua or bloomberg or a whole host of other mainstream news outlets. We've all been duped!