Current Affairs Ukraine

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Hungary implicated in facilitating in the trading of arm supplies to Russia. There's a shock.

 
Biggest strategic error of the whole war was the adventure into Kursk. Zelensky has made a fatal error.

From the Financial Times:



Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces backlash over Russia’s breach of eastern defences. Strategically important Pokrovsk resistance has been weakened by demands of Kursk incursion, say critics. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the situation on the frontline near Pokrovsk as ‘extremely difficult’
Christopher Miller in Kyiv

14 HOURS AGO

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come under a barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts over the rapid advances made by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine since Kyiv launched its bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Many Ukrainians celebrated their army’s invasion of Kursk on August 6, hoping the gamble would force Moscow to divert resources to the new front and swing the momentum of the war in Ukraine’s favour. However, a breach in the frontline in the strategically important Donetsk region this week has triggered a backlash against the leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops to the Kursk operation.

Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk taking several nearby towns this week and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from prepared defensive positions. Pokrovsk is one of two key rail and road junctions in the Donetsk region and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group. Satellite imagery analysed by open-source investigators at the Finland-based Black Bird Group shows Russian forces now just 8km from Pokrovsk. In response, local authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in the area. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, called the situation on the eastern edge of Pokrovsk “a complete defensive failure”. “It’s not the fault of ordinary soldiers holding positions,” he wrote on Telegram. “The problem lies with those who make decisions for these soldiers,” he added, pointing to Ukraine’s leadership. Several soldiers in the area expressed concerns about the defences around Pokrovsk. Zhenya, a Ukrainian soldier in the 93rd Mechanized Brigade who fought in the gruelling 10-month battle of Bakhmut last year, described a fast-deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk. In a candid assessment on X, he criticised the military’s command structure, citing systemic failures and inadequate responses to evolving battlefield conditions. “Honestly, I have never seen anything like this. Everything is falling apart so quickly,” he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did.”

Ukrainian troops this week pulled out of Novohrodivka, 8km south-east of Pokrovsk. The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think-tank, said the withdrawal indicated a shortage of defensive resources, despite Pokrovsk’s importance as a logistical hub. Mariana Bezuhla, an MP and member of the defence committee in parliament, shared photos on Facebook from a visit last week to the frontline near Novohrodivka. She claimed they showed the path to Pokrovsk wide open. “The trenches in front of Novohrodivka were empty. There was practically no Ukrainian army in the once 20,000-strong city,” she wrote in a scathing post. Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, said in a statement on Thursday that he had visited the Pokrovsk area and was working “to strengthen the defence of our troops in the most difficult areas of the front, to provide the brigades with a sufficient amount of ammunition and other material and technical means”.

During a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, Zelenskyy described the situation on the frontline near Pokrovsk as “extremely difficult” but claimed that the Russian advance in the area had slowed following Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk. In fact, Russian forces have advanced more rapidly in Donetsk since August 6 compared with the previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State, a Ukrainian group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry that monitors frontline movements. “There is complete chaos,” said Deep State’s Roman Pohorilyi pointing to the fall of key towns such as Novohrodivka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk.

In the past three weeks, Moscow’s forces have quickly captured more than two-dozen towns and villages with minimal resistance, including the long-held stronghold of Niu-York. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive. “Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units,” Lee said. Soldiers who were mobilised this summer following the Ukrainian government’s new conscription laws meant to fill Kyiv’s dwindling ranks have been sent into the fray with little training or experience. “They freeze . . . they don’t know what to do in real combat,” said a lieutenant whose troops are on the frontline near Pokrovsk. Many “turn and run at the first explosion”.

Soldiers in artillery units near Pokrovsk also highlighted a deficit in shells and a severe mismatch in firepower compared to Russian forces. “Our shells are running out. We just don’t have enough,” said an artillery commander, noting that many resources had been redirected north to Kursk. For about the past month, his unit has had one shell for every six to eight fired by the Russians. Russian forces, meanwhile, maintain a significant tactical advantage, bolstered by superior aviation and drone capabilities as well as in artillery, the CDS think-tank said. Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier currently on the eastern front, warned of the possible “destruction of the entire southern group of forces in the region, not just Pokrovsk”. He cited “a complex of internal reasons: from the planting of flowers instead of fortifications to the lack of understanding on the part of high command of the problems evident to every soldier in the trenches”. “What can be done for Pokrovsk?” he asked rhetorically. “Unfortunately, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think the town will soon cease to exist.” Frontelligence said the Ukrainian leadership could yet shore up the frontline by deploying new brigades or repositioning forces from other areas. But if Pokrovsk were to fall, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control further.
 
Biggest strategic error of the whole war was the adventure into Kursk. Zelensky has made a fatal error.

From the Financial Times:



Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces backlash over Russia’s breach of eastern defences. Strategically important Pokrovsk resistance has been weakened by demands of Kursk incursion, say critics. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the situation on the frontline near Pokrovsk as ‘extremely difficult’
Christopher Miller in Kyiv

14 HOURS AGO

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come under a barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts over the rapid advances made by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine since Kyiv launched its bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Many Ukrainians celebrated their army’s invasion of Kursk on August 6, hoping the gamble would force Moscow to divert resources to the new front and swing the momentum of the war in Ukraine’s favour. However, a breach in the frontline in the strategically important Donetsk region this week has triggered a backlash against the leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops to the Kursk operation.

Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk taking several nearby towns this week and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from prepared defensive positions. Pokrovsk is one of two key rail and road junctions in the Donetsk region and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group. Satellite imagery analysed by open-source investigators at the Finland-based Black Bird Group shows Russian forces now just 8km from Pokrovsk. In response, local authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in the area. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, called the situation on the eastern edge of Pokrovsk “a complete defensive failure”. “It’s not the fault of ordinary soldiers holding positions,” he wrote on Telegram. “The problem lies with those who make decisions for these soldiers,” he added, pointing to Ukraine’s leadership. Several soldiers in the area expressed concerns about the defences around Pokrovsk. Zhenya, a Ukrainian soldier in the 93rd Mechanized Brigade who fought in the gruelling 10-month battle of Bakhmut last year, described a fast-deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk. In a candid assessment on X, he criticised the military’s command structure, citing systemic failures and inadequate responses to evolving battlefield conditions. “Honestly, I have never seen anything like this. Everything is falling apart so quickly,” he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did.”

Ukrainian troops this week pulled out of Novohrodivka, 8km south-east of Pokrovsk. The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think-tank, said the withdrawal indicated a shortage of defensive resources, despite Pokrovsk’s importance as a logistical hub. Mariana Bezuhla, an MP and member of the defence committee in parliament, shared photos on Facebook from a visit last week to the frontline near Novohrodivka. She claimed they showed the path to Pokrovsk wide open. “The trenches in front of Novohrodivka were empty. There was practically no Ukrainian army in the once 20,000-strong city,” she wrote in a scathing post. Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, said in a statement on Thursday that he had visited the Pokrovsk area and was working “to strengthen the defence of our troops in the most difficult areas of the front, to provide the brigades with a sufficient amount of ammunition and other material and technical means”.

During a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, Zelenskyy described the situation on the frontline near Pokrovsk as “extremely difficult” but claimed that the Russian advance in the area had slowed following Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk. In fact, Russian forces have advanced more rapidly in Donetsk since August 6 compared with the previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State, a Ukrainian group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry that monitors frontline movements. “There is complete chaos,” said Deep State’s Roman Pohorilyi pointing to the fall of key towns such as Novohrodivka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk.

In the past three weeks, Moscow’s forces have quickly captured more than two-dozen towns and villages with minimal resistance, including the long-held stronghold of Niu-York. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive. “Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units,” Lee said. Soldiers who were mobilised this summer following the Ukrainian government’s new conscription laws meant to fill Kyiv’s dwindling ranks have been sent into the fray with little training or experience. “They freeze . . . they don’t know what to do in real combat,” said a lieutenant whose troops are on the frontline near Pokrovsk. Many “turn and run at the first explosion”.

Soldiers in artillery units near Pokrovsk also highlighted a deficit in shells and a severe mismatch in firepower compared to Russian forces. “Our shells are running out. We just don’t have enough,” said an artillery commander, noting that many resources had been redirected north to Kursk. For about the past month, his unit has had one shell for every six to eight fired by the Russians. Russian forces, meanwhile, maintain a significant tactical advantage, bolstered by superior aviation and drone capabilities as well as in artillery, the CDS think-tank said. Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier currently on the eastern front, warned of the possible “destruction of the entire southern group of forces in the region, not just Pokrovsk”. He cited “a complex of internal reasons: from the planting of flowers instead of fortifications to the lack of understanding on the part of high command of the problems evident to every soldier in the trenches”. “What can be done for Pokrovsk?” he asked rhetorically. “Unfortunately, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think the town will soon cease to exist.” Frontelligence said the Ukrainian leadership could yet shore up the frontline by deploying new brigades or repositioning forces from other areas. But if Pokrovsk were to fall, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control further.
Pokrovsk would've been taken regardless of Kursk.
 
That's not the conclusion of a lot of experts.

Conceivably the Russians can move toward Dnipro after its fall pretty much with little resistance.
Even Russia cannot sustain indefinitely the losses they are taking in the pursuit of Pokrovsk and the weather will bog down both sides shortly.

Russia haven't shown any ability to conduct combined arms, they've literally been throwing more men forward than Ukraine can shoot.

It'll be a long winter for Ukrainian civilians and Russians living in Western Russia is my guess. The war will be decided in 2025.
 
Even Russia cannot sustain indefinitely the losses they are taking in the pursuit of Pokrovsk and the weather will bog down both sides shortly.

Russia haven't shown any ability to conduct combined arms, they've literally been throwing more men forward than Ukraine can shoot.

It'll be a long winter for Ukrainian civilians and Russians living in Western Russia is my guess. The war will be decided in 2025.
It'll defo end in 2025 IMO.

The sooner the better. Zelensky has surrendered the east of Ukraine to the Russians with his balls up and he's overseen the deaths of 500,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
 
<snip>
But if Pokrovsk were to fall, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control further.
I'm surprised by that last line as Dnipro is not currently even on the cards and has not been mentioned by anyone worth listening to in Russia. That's about 150km from Pokrovsk and the southern part of the front near Zaporizhia.
 
I'm surprised by that last line as Dnipro is not currently even on the cards and has not been mentioned by anyone worth listening to in Russia. That's about 150km from Pokrovsk and the southern part of the front near Zaporizhia.
Well, towards something doesn't necessarily mean all the way, I suppose.

But what for sure the capture of Pokrovsk does is to allow Russian forces to encircle any Ukrainian forces to the south of that town and to help shut down easy rail and road supplies to Ukrainian forces in the north east of Ukraine, including those that pushed into Kursk.

No wonder the Ukrainians didn't consult with their NATO sponsors; they'd have put a stop to Zelenski's crackpot strategy that's just almost certainly cut short the war in Russia's favour.

The Zelensky-Syriskyi decision will go down in history as one of the worst military decisions of all time. Text books will be written about it for decades to come.
 
Well, towards something doesn't necessarily mean all the way, I suppose.

But what for sure the capture of Pokrovsk does is to allow Russian forces to encircle any Ukrainian forces to the south of that town and to help shut down easy rail and road supplies to Ukrainian forces in the north east of Ukraine, including those that pushed into Kursk.

No wonder the Ukrainians didn't consult with their NATO sponsors; they'd have put a stop to Zelenski's crackpot strategy that's just almost certainly cut short the war in Russia's favour.

The Zelensky-Syriskyi decision will go down in history as one of the worst military decisions of all time. Text books will be written about it for decades to come.
If Ukraine is using Pokrovsk to supply Kursk then they need to dismiss the guy in charge of logistics.
 
Washington must have their heads in their hands. IIRC they sent them 7 F-16s and now one's destroyed on the first day of combat.

Their pilots must be pretty poor...or more likely they've rushed their training.
There were early reports that Ukraine had hit it with a patriot but that could well be Russian disinformation.

The reality is, whatever the cause was, that on one of the first active flights, an inexperienced pilot (in an f-16), flew into one of the most hostile conditions a pilot has ever flown into during a war during that large scale missile and drone launch. If those are the conditions that they face regularly, more will be lost no matter the pilot or how extensive the training.
 
Washington must have their heads in their hands. IIRC they sent them 7 F-16s and now one's destroyed on the first day of combat.

Their pilots must be pretty poor...or more likely they've rushed their training.
Considering crash happened during that massive Russian missile attack it probably was during combat releated thing and not just some random crash by incompetent pilot.

Maybe it was hit on the ground cause Russian Telegrams stated that they hit several air bases with Kinzhal missiles back then. Maybe it crashed while it was trying to shoot down cruise missiles, or maybe indeed was friendly fire, wouldn't be that surprising considering how cluttered was sky during that massive attack.
 
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