Current Affairs Ukraine

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ISW Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea overnight on June 9 to 10, likely with ATACMS.
  • Ukraine's Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk denied on June 10 a Sky News report that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship in the Sea of Azov on the night of June 8 to 9.
  • New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with a select group of Russian milbloggers and military commentators on June 10, suggesting that the Kremlin seeks to partially use Belousov's replacement of widely unpopular former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to build bridges and cultivate ties with a broader milblogger community via a cadre of coopted and loyal military commentators.
  • Officials from Russia, Iran, and the People's Republic of China (PRC) held bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod on June 10.
  • The Armenian National Assembly will likely hold an emergency session by June 17 during which the Armenian opposition parties will demand Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's and his cabinet's resignation.
  • The US Department of State announced on June 10 that the US and Poland jointly launched the Ukraine Communications Group (UCG) in Warsaw to counter Russian disinformation by offering fact-based reporting about the war in Ukraine.
  • Finnish authorities reported that a Russian military aircraft temporarily violated Finnish airspace on June 10 amid continued Russian efforts to undermine Finnish sovereignty.
  • Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov appears to be focusing on healthcare programs for Russian servicemembers in his new role.
www.understandingwar.org

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024

Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea overnight on June 9 to 10, likely with ATACMS. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 10 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 air defense battery near occupied Dzhankoi and two S-300 batteries...
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
ISW Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea overnight on June 9 to 10, likely with ATACMS.
  • Ukraine's Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk denied on June 10 a Sky News report that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship in the Sea of Azov on the night of June 8 to 9.
  • New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with a select group of Russian milbloggers and military commentators on June 10, suggesting that the Kremlin seeks to partially use Belousov's replacement of widely unpopular former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to build bridges and cultivate ties with a broader milblogger community via a cadre of coopted and loyal military commentators.
  • Officials from Russia, Iran, and the People's Republic of China (PRC) held bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod on June 10.
  • The Armenian National Assembly will likely hold an emergency session by June 17 during which the Armenian opposition parties will demand Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's and his cabinet's resignation.
  • The US Department of State announced on June 10 that the US and Poland jointly launched the Ukraine Communications Group (UCG) in Warsaw to counter Russian disinformation by offering fact-based reporting about the war in Ukraine.
  • Finnish authorities reported that a Russian military aircraft temporarily violated Finnish airspace on June 10 amid continued Russian efforts to undermine Finnish sovereignty.
  • Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov appears to be focusing on healthcare programs for Russian servicemembers in his new role.
www.understandingwar.org

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024

Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea overnight on June 9 to 10, likely with ATACMS. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 10 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 air defense battery near occupied Dzhankoi and two S-300 batteries...
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
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Information and disinformation has become an important part in modern armed conflict.
This line was a little odd though.
"Finnish authorities reported that a Russian military aircraft temporarily violated Finnish airspace on June 10 amid continued Russian efforts to undermine Finnish sovereignty."
 
davids said:
Information and disinformation has become an important part in modern armed conflict.
This line was a little odd though.
"Finnish authorities reported that a Russian military aircraft temporarily violated Finnish airspace on June 10 amid continued Russian efforts to undermine Finnish sovereignty."
Click to expand...
That I believe is a reference to Russia’s unilateral decision to re-draw the sea border with Finland (and Lithuania) thereby impacting the sovereign space of these states.

Normally the re-drawing of physical maritime boundaries and territorial waters takes many years of negotiations between nations and requires agreement from all sides.

Putin being the bellend that he is thinks he can just take and take - exactly the reason why he needs stopping in Ukraine.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
That I believe is a reference to Russia’s unilateral decision to re-draw the sea border with Finland (and Lithuania) thereby impacting the sovereign space of these states.

Normally the re-drawing of physical maritime boundaries and territorial waters takes many years of negotiations between nations and requires agreement from all sides.

Putin being the bellend that he is thinks he can just take and take - exactly the reason why he needs stopping in Ukraine.
Click to expand...
This and Russia sending military aircraft into Finlands airspace, briging migrants to Finlands borders etc.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
Yup I see that as well. It’s a combination of acts by Russia that impose upon the Sovereign borders and security of Finland as well as other Baltic states.
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Haven't they recently joined NATO? Surely their sovereignty is guaranteed under the NATO charter? That's why I found it odd as it basically undermines NATO as a force to protect it's members.
 
davids said:
Haven't they recently joined NATO? Surely their sovereignty is guaranteed under the NATO charter? That's why I found it odd as it basically undermines NATO as a force to protect it's members.
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Putin is simply pushing it. NATO will defend attacks against member states. Putin likes to work in the grey areas and push it as much as he can. He’s doing something similar with Poland by using refugees to swamp the border crossing.

NATO will keep a close eye on it but would only intervene if the member state invokes article 5.

Can’t see WWIII breaking out over it and I guess that’s how Putin sees it. However if he continues to violate a NATO countries airspace then eventually something will happen
 
Zatara said:
I count 24 Russian banks' websites are down. Also the Moscow stock exchange.

Clearly not enough liquidity.

They will buy your USD for 52.8 rubles & sell at 132.4 rubles.

Apparently people lining up outside banks to withdraw while they can.

RCB moving over to Yuan to limit ruble risk and price crash.
Click to expand...
US finally turning the screw. Also read today that G7 have agreed to allocate $50Billion of frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraines internal infrastructure.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
US finally turning the screw. Also read today that G7 have agreed to allocate $50Billion of frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraines internal infrastructure.
Click to expand...

A very bad day for Vlad, a total double-whammy. Will be interesting to see his reaction.

Also, read that part of the G7 meeting was how to stop loopholes through rogue states with avoiding sanctioned items
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
US finally turning the screw. Also read today that G7 have agreed to allocate $50Billion of frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraines internal infrastructure.
Click to expand...

Finally being the operative word. I predicted this happening by September 2022.

However, the US has really treated this like a "were the good guys" until recently. Allowing Russian troops to become targets only upon crossing the border.

For 2 years they could have destroyed the ruble and allowed Ukraine to fire on Russian based targets.

I wonder if the decisions have been driven by the Democrats or US military (i have no idea). Either way its naive at best.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
US finally turning the screw. Also read today that G7 have agreed to allocate $50Billion of frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraines internal infrastructure.
Click to expand...
I thought I read its only the interest accrued on the Frozen assets, either way its a welcome development and likely just a precursor to transferring all the frozen assets.
 
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