Current Affairs Ukraine

[peteblue]

I was mistaken, caught half the story.

As usual… lol

 

[Rita_Poon]

self awareness irony overload*

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Russia on fire again.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Transferring frozen Russian reserves to Ukraine is elegant justice

Western allies of the nation are overstating the fears and failing to truly recognise the benefits

www.ft.com

Likely reaction from Russia broken down

RIA cited data which it said showed that direct investment by the European Union, the G7 nations, Australia and Switzerland in the Russian economy at the end of 2022 totalled $288 billion.
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It said EU nations held $223.3 billion of the assets, of which $98.3 billion was formally held by Cyprus, $50.1 billion by the Netherlands and $17.3 billion by Germany.
It said the top five European investors in the Russian economy also included France with assets and investments worth $16.6 billion and Italy with $12.9 billion.
Among the G7 countries, it named Britain as one of the largest investors, citing data at the end of 2021 which showed British assets in Russia were worth about $18.9 billion.

It said the United States had $9.6 billion worth of Russian assets at the end of 2022, Japan $4.6 billion and Canada $2.9 billion.
Switzerland and Norway, which RIA said usually signed up to anti-Russian measures, had $28.5 billion and $139 million respectively at the end of 2022, it said, while data showed Australia had $683 million invested at the end of last year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/west-stands-lose-least-288-bln-assets-if-russian-assets-seized-ria-2024-01-21/

You can see the incentive given both the relative small costs and also that if this brings victory a pathway toward global stability would appear much easier.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

'Send back our husbands' - Russian women in rare protest

A group of Russian women are making rare public demands for reservists to return from the front line.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[tsubaki]

Transferring frozen Russian reserves to Ukraine is elegant justice

Western allies of the nation are overstating the fears and failing to truly recognise the benefits

www.ft.com

Likely reaction from Russia broken down

https://www.reuters.com/business/west-stands-lose-least-288-bln-assets-if-russian-assets-seized-ria-2024-01-21/

You can see the incentive given both the relative small costs and also that if this brings victory a pathway toward global stability would appear much easier.

This is another terrible idea, especially where the UK is concerned. If countries think that their assets are not safe with you on account of them being seized without compensation, then they won’t place them with you.

These assets are also a considerable card we hold with regards to them (Russia); if we throw it away like this it doesn’t leave us holding many others with which to influence their behaviour. It’s also pretty unprecedented and difficult to see how, in the absence of a war between the EU and Russia, how it would ever be legal domestically or internationally. It seems to me to be yet another example of doing something without thinking through any of the consequences.

What would have been (and still would be) better is both removing our need for fossil fuels in such quantities, and boosting military (and other) production. The EU / UK is richer, has a greater population, a higher technological base, a higher manufacturing base and has many more inroads into Russian society than they do with ours. It’s in those areas we should focus efforts, not in idiotic acts like this.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This is another terrible idea, especially where the UK is concerned. If countries think that their assets are not safe with you on account of them being seized without compensation, then they won’t place them with you.

These assets are also a considerable card we hold with regards to them (Russia); if we throw it away like this it doesn’t leave us holding many others with which to influence their behaviour. It’s also pretty unprecedented and difficult to see how, in the absence of a war between the EU and Russia, how it would ever be legal domestically or internationally. It seems to me to be yet another example of doing something without thinking through any of the consequences.

What would have been (and still would be) better is both removing our need for fossil fuels in such quantities, and boosting military (and other) production. The EU / UK is richer, has a greater population, a higher technological base, a higher manufacturing base and has many more inroads into Russian society than they do with ours. It’s in those areas we should focus efforts, not in idiotic acts like this.

As you know, this has been under consideration for some time now.

I agree with your previous thinking that the Europe needs to maintain its partnerships such as with the US but not rely upon the US for such critical things as defence. I agree with your position that the UK and Europe need to be able to stand alone. From that perspective it appears that this proposal is in part being driven by the GOPs tacit support of Putin in seeking to remove further support for Ukraine. Also the looming threat(s) of another Trump term.

If this seizing of assets that the EU is planning happens it would seem to be an indication that the US Europe alliance or power dynamic is shifting.

If it does happen, as risky a strategy as it might appear, if it leads to Russia being defeated in Ukraine it will send a clear message to dictators about consequences and actions resulting from aggression such as has happened in Ukraine.

 

[Yarrgh]

As you know, this has been under consideration for some time now.

I agree with your previous thinking that the Europe needs to maintain its partnerships such as with the US but not rely upon the US for such critical things as defence. I agree with your position that the UK and Europe need to be able to stand alone. From that perspective it appears that this proposal is in part being driven by the GOPs tacit support of Putin in seeking to remove further support for Ukraine. Also the looming threat(s) of another Trump term.

If this seizing of assets that the EU is planning happens it would seem to be an indication that the US Europe alliance or power dynamic is shifting.

If it does happen, as risky a strategy as it might appear, if it leads to Russia being defeated in Ukraine it will send a clear message to dictators about consequences and actions resulting from aggression such as has happened in Ukraine.

If the entire west does this, then it's a step down the path to our financial institutions not being giant laundromats for ill gotten loot.

That in the long run will make it ever harder to steal money from the economic by oligarchs/ dirty politicians/ criminals and help those countries being plundered.

 

[Drico]

Will the west be doing likewise with Israeli assets to rebuild Gaza?

Thought not.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Will the west be doing likewise with Israeli assets to rebuild Gaza?

Thought not.

Technically different situations but I understand the emotion.

 

[Drico]

Technically different situations but I understand the emotion.

Ooh, I see little difference. I see much hypocrisy, though.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Ooh, I see little difference. I see much hypocrisy, though.

As I say, the technicality is that Hamas were the aggressor in this incident.

Obviously what has followed has been absolutely horrific, and Israels reaction is something that I hope they/Likud have to answer to in court but as it stands, Hamas attacked, are still firing rockets and fighting Isreal and are holding civilian hostages.

I am sure that Hamas/Iran had factored an Israeli overreaction into their planning and had hoped that the following Israeli attrocities could be used as a lever to bring other states on side, but sadly for those innocents in Gaza the actions of Hamas have made it a difficult situation.

Regardless of all of the above, you would hope that adults in roles of leadership would be have firm requirements that children and women should be protected.

 

[Drico]

As I say, that sort of stuff doesn’t wash with me. Israel is every bit the aggressor - they have gone way beyond reasonable self-defence. The west has fallen over itself in its hypocrisy and craven appeasement of a far-right headbanger terrorist Israeli government.