Current Affairs Ukraine
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Spadge Vernacular
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One messed up country.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Estimates from some sources suggest Russoa is losing above the 500-1000 per day in Advivvka alone with some days above 3000!
15h ago16.44 GMT
Dan Sabbagh
Russia has sustained casualties of between 300,000 and 400,000 killed and wounded in the war in Ukraine so far, and in the heaviest fighting at Avdiivka is losing between 500 and 1,000 a day according to a briefing by western officials.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, nevertheless acknowledged that Ukraine's counter offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front has essentially culminated, although "three brigades" are believed to have made it across the Dnipro river near Kherson.
"Neither side is capable of mounting a decisive operation on land," one of the officials said, and it appeared that "a prolonged conflict" was likely to follow in which long term US and European military aid would be crucial.
A significant force, described as three brigades, had established a position across the Dnipro that the Russians have proved unable to dislodge, although it was unclear, they said, how much armour the Ukrainian military had been able to get across the river.
But despite the cross-river success, the officials said they expected that Ukraine would most likely only be able to make incremental "village at a time" progress, a similar pace to summer efforts south of Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka
www.theguardian.com
15h ago16.44 GMT
Russia has sustained casualties of 300,000-400,000, western officials say
Dan Sabbagh
Russia has sustained casualties of between 300,000 and 400,000 killed and wounded in the war in Ukraine so far, and in the heaviest fighting at Avdiivka is losing between 500 and 1,000 a day according to a briefing by western officials.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, nevertheless acknowledged that Ukraine's counter offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front has essentially culminated, although "three brigades" are believed to have made it across the Dnipro river near Kherson.
"Neither side is capable of mounting a decisive operation on land," one of the officials said, and it appeared that "a prolonged conflict" was likely to follow in which long term US and European military aid would be crucial.
A significant force, described as three brigades, had established a position across the Dnipro that the Russians have proved unable to dislodge, although it was unclear, they said, how much armour the Ukrainian military had been able to get across the river.
But despite the cross-river success, the officials said they expected that Ukraine would most likely only be able to make incremental "village at a time" progress, a similar pace to summer efforts south of Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka
Ukraine has claimed initiative in Black Sea and forced Russian navy to pull back, Zelenskiy says – as it happened
Ukraine’s president says use of naval drones has prevented Russia from using Black Sea as springboard
Why would Zelenskyy do this?
Jimmy Grimble
Player Valuation: £20m
What's it got to do with Zelenskiy?
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
D'you know what? I don't blame these people one bit. Imagine being fed into Zelensky's meat grinder to fuel his ego and losing your life.
www.bbc.co.uk
Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted, the BBC has discovered
And 40,000-plus number of men have fled, or tried to flee.
Some have swum dangerous rivers to leave the country. Others have simply walked out under cover of darkness.
Another 21,113 men attempted to flee but were caught by the Ukrainian authorities, Kyiv confirmed.
After Russia's invasion, most men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving. But data obtained by the BBC reveals dozens have made it out daily.
We have spoken to several men who have escaped in order to join family abroad, study, or simply make a living.
"What am I supposed to do [in Ukraine]?" one man, Yevgeny, said. "Not everyone is a warrior… you don't need to keep the whole country locked up. You can't lump everyone together like they did in the Soviet Union."
The BBC has established - by requesting data of illegal border crossings from neighbouring Romania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia - that 19,740 men illegally crossed into these countries between February 2022 and 31 August 2023.
While we do not know how those men escaped, we do know what methods were used by the other 21,113 who were caught trying. The majority - 14,313 - were attempting to walk or swim across the border, and the remaining 6,800 relied on fraudulently obtained official paperwork stating fake exemptions such as fabricated illnesses, the Ukrainian authorities said.
Those who are excluded from conscription include men with medical issues, those with caring responsibilities, and fathers to three or more children.
In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called out the "corrupt decisions" made by the country's medical military commissions, which he said had resulted in a ten-fold increase in exemptions since February 2022. He announced that all regional officials in charge of military conscription had been removed, and more than 30 people faced criminal charges.
The president's parliamentary representative, Fedir Venislavskyi, acknowledged to the BBC that the problem was serious.
"The government realises that this phenomenon is not isolated and that it is widespread. But unfortunately, I would emphasise that corruption is very resilient," he said - adding that Ukraine was doing "everything possible to keep the number of corruption cases to a minimum".
Mr Venislavskyi said the number of men who had left or had tried to leave was having no impact on the war effort.
"I am convinced that the resilience and readiness of Ukrainians to defend their independence, sovereignty and freedom is 95-99%," Mr Venislavskyi told the BBC.
"Those who try to avoid mobilisation are about 1-5%. They are definitely not critical to the defence of Ukraine." He said there were no plans to radically increase the number of those eligible for mobilisation.
The 40,000-plus number of men who have fled, or tried to flee, could represent a significant proportion of the men Ukraine needs to replenish its army. In August, US officials estimated the Ukrainian military death toll to be up to 70,000 - although Kyiv won't give a figure.
The country also does not release official figures on the size of its army. But the new Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, told the Yalta European Strategy forum in September that there are more than 800,000 in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Some of the escapes have been dramatic.
One video shows a man swimming across the Dniester River towards Moldova, with Moldovan border guards urging him across to safety. Another shows the potentially fatal consequences - bodies of men being pulled ashore, having drowned trying to cross the Tisa River between Ukraine and Romania.
But Yevgeny, a construction worker from Kyiv who we met in a Moldovan immigration centre, said he simply walked across that country's border - the most popular route out, our figures suggest. It is then relatively straightforward for escapees of the war to claim asylum.
Yevgeny had felt trapped in Ukraine he told us - younger men and those with military experience had been called up for conscription first.
It had been difficult for him in the meantime to find a well-paying job, "because everything is geared towards the war" and yet "electricity, fuel - everything's become more expensive".
After being processed by the Moldovan police, he applied for asylum - something that must be done within 24 hours of entering the country to avoid a criminal record.
Swimming rivers and faking illness to escape Ukraine’s draft
After Russia's invasion, most Ukrainian men were banned from leaving, but many are escaping abroad.
www.bbc.co.uk
Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted, the BBC has discovered
And 40,000-plus number of men have fled, or tried to flee.
Some have swum dangerous rivers to leave the country. Others have simply walked out under cover of darkness.
Another 21,113 men attempted to flee but were caught by the Ukrainian authorities, Kyiv confirmed.
After Russia's invasion, most men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving. But data obtained by the BBC reveals dozens have made it out daily.
We have spoken to several men who have escaped in order to join family abroad, study, or simply make a living.
"What am I supposed to do [in Ukraine]?" one man, Yevgeny, said. "Not everyone is a warrior… you don't need to keep the whole country locked up. You can't lump everyone together like they did in the Soviet Union."
The BBC has established - by requesting data of illegal border crossings from neighbouring Romania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia - that 19,740 men illegally crossed into these countries between February 2022 and 31 August 2023.
While we do not know how those men escaped, we do know what methods were used by the other 21,113 who were caught trying. The majority - 14,313 - were attempting to walk or swim across the border, and the remaining 6,800 relied on fraudulently obtained official paperwork stating fake exemptions such as fabricated illnesses, the Ukrainian authorities said.
Those who are excluded from conscription include men with medical issues, those with caring responsibilities, and fathers to three or more children.
In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called out the "corrupt decisions" made by the country's medical military commissions, which he said had resulted in a ten-fold increase in exemptions since February 2022. He announced that all regional officials in charge of military conscription had been removed, and more than 30 people faced criminal charges.
The president's parliamentary representative, Fedir Venislavskyi, acknowledged to the BBC that the problem was serious.
"The government realises that this phenomenon is not isolated and that it is widespread. But unfortunately, I would emphasise that corruption is very resilient," he said - adding that Ukraine was doing "everything possible to keep the number of corruption cases to a minimum".
Mr Venislavskyi said the number of men who had left or had tried to leave was having no impact on the war effort.
"I am convinced that the resilience and readiness of Ukrainians to defend their independence, sovereignty and freedom is 95-99%," Mr Venislavskyi told the BBC.
"Those who try to avoid mobilisation are about 1-5%. They are definitely not critical to the defence of Ukraine." He said there were no plans to radically increase the number of those eligible for mobilisation.
The 40,000-plus number of men who have fled, or tried to flee, could represent a significant proportion of the men Ukraine needs to replenish its army. In August, US officials estimated the Ukrainian military death toll to be up to 70,000 - although Kyiv won't give a figure.
The country also does not release official figures on the size of its army. But the new Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, told the Yalta European Strategy forum in September that there are more than 800,000 in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Some of the escapes have been dramatic.
One video shows a man swimming across the Dniester River towards Moldova, with Moldovan border guards urging him across to safety. Another shows the potentially fatal consequences - bodies of men being pulled ashore, having drowned trying to cross the Tisa River between Ukraine and Romania.
But Yevgeny, a construction worker from Kyiv who we met in a Moldovan immigration centre, said he simply walked across that country's border - the most popular route out, our figures suggest. It is then relatively straightforward for escapees of the war to claim asylum.
Yevgeny had felt trapped in Ukraine he told us - younger men and those with military experience had been called up for conscription first.
It had been difficult for him in the meantime to find a well-paying job, "because everything is geared towards the war" and yet "electricity, fuel - everything's become more expensive".
After being processed by the Moldovan police, he applied for asylum - something that must be done within 24 hours of entering the country to avoid a criminal record.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
D'you know what? I don't blame these people one bit. Imagine being fed into Zelensky's meat grinder to fuel his ego and losing your life.
Swimming rivers and faking illness to escape Ukraine’s draft
After Russia's invasion, most Ukrainian men were banned from leaving, but many are escaping abroad.
Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted, the BBC has discovered
And 40,000-plus number of men have fled, or tried to flee.
Some have swum dangerous rivers to leave the country. Others have simply walked out under cover of darkness.
Another 21,113 men attempted to flee but were caught by the Ukrainian authorities, Kyiv confirmed.
After Russia's invasion, most men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving. But data obtained by the BBC reveals dozens have made it out daily.
We have spoken to several men who have escaped in order to join family abroad, study, or simply make a living.
"What am I supposed to do [in Ukraine]?" one man, Yevgeny, said. "Not everyone is a warrior… you don't need to keep the whole country locked up. You can't lump everyone together like they did in the Soviet Union."
The BBC has established - by requesting data of illegal border crossings from neighbouring Romania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia - that 19,740 men illegally crossed into these countries between February 2022 and 31 August 2023.
While we do not know how those men escaped, we do know what methods were used by the other 21,113 who were caught trying. The majority - 14,313 - were attempting to walk or swim across the border, and the remaining 6,800 relied on fraudulently obtained official paperwork stating fake exemptions such as fabricated illnesses, the Ukrainian authorities said.
Those who are excluded from conscription include men with medical issues, those with caring responsibilities, and fathers to three or more children.
In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called out the "corrupt decisions" made by the country's medical military commissions, which he said had resulted in a ten-fold increase in exemptions since February 2022. He announced that all regional officials in charge of military conscription had been removed, and more than 30 people faced criminal charges.
The president's parliamentary representative, Fedir Venislavskyi, acknowledged to the BBC that the problem was serious.
"The government realises that this phenomenon is not isolated and that it is widespread. But unfortunately, I would emphasise that corruption is very resilient," he said - adding that Ukraine was doing "everything possible to keep the number of corruption cases to a minimum".
Mr Venislavskyi said the number of men who had left or had tried to leave was having no impact on the war effort.
"I am convinced that the resilience and readiness of Ukrainians to defend their independence, sovereignty and freedom is 95-99%," Mr Venislavskyi told the BBC.
"Those who try to avoid mobilisation are about 1-5%. They are definitely not critical to the defence of Ukraine." He said there were no plans to radically increase the number of those eligible for mobilisation.
The 40,000-plus number of men who have fled, or tried to flee, could represent a significant proportion of the men Ukraine needs to replenish its army. In August, US officials estimated the Ukrainian military death toll to be up to 70,000 - although Kyiv won't give a figure.
The country also does not release official figures on the size of its army. But the new Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, told the Yalta European Strategy forum in September that there are more than 800,000 in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Some of the escapes have been dramatic.
One video shows a man swimming across the Dniester River towards Moldova, with Moldovan border guards urging him across to safety. Another shows the potentially fatal consequences - bodies of men being pulled ashore, having drowned trying to cross the Tisa River between Ukraine and Romania.
But Yevgeny, a construction worker from Kyiv who we met in a Moldovan immigration centre, said he simply walked across that country's border - the most popular route out, our figures suggest. It is then relatively straightforward for escapees of the war to claim asylum.
Yevgeny had felt trapped in Ukraine he told us - younger men and those with military experience had been called up for conscription first.
It had been difficult for him in the meantime to find a well-paying job, "because everything is geared towards the war" and yet "electricity, fuel - everything's become more expensive".
After being processed by the Moldovan police, he applied for asylum - something that must be done within 24 hours of entering the country to avoid a criminal record.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Great news from the front. More fighting to do but yet another loss on the way for Putin.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
ISW reporting chaos in the Russian state propoganda machine. All the lies and positive spin they are try to cover their shocking loss with is having effects in multiple areas.
"Russian milbloggers continued to criticize actors in the Russian information space for distorting the reality of the Russian war effort, highlighting an emerging cyclical dynamic in the Russian information space in which the majority of Russian sources coalesce around a particular predominant narrative and, in turn, a subset of different sources coalesces to criticize the majority’s prevailing opinion. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on November 16 that Russian state media may have falsely convinced the Russian people that “everything is fine” in Russia’s war in Ukraine.[10] The milblogger claimed that he does not understand why Russian state media devotes so much time to promoting narratives about the “imminent collapse of Ukraine" and portrays the Russian war effort so positively that Russian viewers think that signing a military service contract is unnecessary. Another Russian milblogger who previously served throughout the front in Ukraine and correctly assessed Russia’s foundational problems in Kharkiv Oblast in spring 2022 criticized several unnamed Russian milbloggers for their recent overly positive reporting about Russian counterattacks on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[11] The milblogger claimed that the other milbloggers preemptively claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks on the east bank and criticized them for setting unrealistic expectations for Russian forces. The milblogger noted that such overoptimistic claims are forcing Russian servicemen to “catch up” to these Russian politicians’ and commanders’ unrealistic expectations of Russian battlefield successes. The milblogger’s complaint suggests that the situation in Kherson Oblast remains very ambiguous and is dynamic. The milblogger’s complaint mirrors recent reports that the Russian General Staff uses battlefield maps that differ from tactical reality and that local Russian commanders order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that align with the Russian General Staff’s inaccurate maps.[12] Disjointed Kremlin efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space and report overly optimistic news are likely creating these cycles of coalescence and backlash among Russian sources. The Russian information space may grow increasingly volatile as the rift between the Kremlin optimists and their critics expands."
www.understandingwar.org
"Russian milbloggers continued to criticize actors in the Russian information space for distorting the reality of the Russian war effort, highlighting an emerging cyclical dynamic in the Russian information space in which the majority of Russian sources coalesce around a particular predominant narrative and, in turn, a subset of different sources coalesces to criticize the majority’s prevailing opinion. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on November 16 that Russian state media may have falsely convinced the Russian people that “everything is fine” in Russia’s war in Ukraine.[10] The milblogger claimed that he does not understand why Russian state media devotes so much time to promoting narratives about the “imminent collapse of Ukraine" and portrays the Russian war effort so positively that Russian viewers think that signing a military service contract is unnecessary. Another Russian milblogger who previously served throughout the front in Ukraine and correctly assessed Russia’s foundational problems in Kharkiv Oblast in spring 2022 criticized several unnamed Russian milbloggers for their recent overly positive reporting about Russian counterattacks on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[11] The milblogger claimed that the other milbloggers preemptively claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks on the east bank and criticized them for setting unrealistic expectations for Russian forces. The milblogger noted that such overoptimistic claims are forcing Russian servicemen to “catch up” to these Russian politicians’ and commanders’ unrealistic expectations of Russian battlefield successes. The milblogger’s complaint suggests that the situation in Kherson Oblast remains very ambiguous and is dynamic. The milblogger’s complaint mirrors recent reports that the Russian General Staff uses battlefield maps that differ from tactical reality and that local Russian commanders order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that align with the Russian General Staff’s inaccurate maps.[12] Disjointed Kremlin efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space and report overly optimistic news are likely creating these cycles of coalescence and backlash among Russian sources. The Russian information space may grow increasingly volatile as the rift between the Kremlin optimists and their critics expands."
Institute for the Study of War
This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
I'm pretty sure he's just undermined his whole argument?
He does though!
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