Current Affairs Ukraine

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ISW November 12, 2023, 3:55pm ET

Ukraine appears to be intensifying attacks against Russian military, logistics, and other high-profile assets in rear areas in occupied Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 12 that Ukrainian partisans attacked a Russian military headquarters in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast on November 11, killing at least three Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and Rosgvardia officers.[1] The GUR’s November 12 announcement follows a Ukrainian partisan attack against a former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Militia head on November 8; strikes against a Russian military base in occupied Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast and Black Sea Fleet assets in Crimea on November 9; and three rear-area strikes and partisan attacks in Russia on November 11.[2] Ukrainian forces have conducted a strike campaign specifically targeting occupied Crimea since summer 2023.[3]

The Russian government is attempting to downplay the extent of its efforts to strengthen control over the Russian information space. The Russian Ministry of Digital Development claimed on November 12 that it will only block specific virtual private network (VPN) services that an “expert commission” identifies as threats, likely aiming to prevent Russians from bypassing Russian censorship efforts and anonymizing themselves online.[4] The Ministry of Digital Development had responded to an inquiry from the “Novyi Lyudi” faction expressing concern over the Russian government’s efforts to restrict access to information on the internet and fears that the Russian government will simply identify all VPN services as threats and block them.[5] The Russian government recently announced a ban on services that provide virtual and temporary mobile numbers starting on September 1, 2024, and Russians can use these mobile numbers in conjunction with VPN services to form anonymous online personas to evade Russian censorship efforts.[6] The Russian government is very unlikely to allow any VPNs to operate within Russia that would allow Russians to bypass censorship efforts and remain anonymous from the Russian government.

Russia continues to posture itself as a prominent security guarantor for authoritarian countries in Africa. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin stated during a television interview with the “Voyennaya Priemka” program on November 12 that Russia will sign military cooperation agreements with six additional African countries in the near future.[7] Fomin stated that Russia currently has military agreements with 30 of the 54 African countries and added that Russia is “very active” on the African continent. Fomin did not specify which African countries Russia will sign agreements with, although Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov have met with delegations from Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, and Libya in recent months.[8] French-language outlet Jeune Afrique reported on November 11 that a group of Russian servicemen arrived in Burkina Faso to protect President Ibrahim Traore from future coup attempts, which Russian sources credited as an outcome of Shoigu’s November 7 meeting with Burkinabe Minister of Defense and Veteran Affairs Brigadier General Kassoum Coulibaly.[9] The Kremlin appears to be using military agreements with Sahelian juntas to insert itself into the power vacuums created by the withdrawal of Western actors from the region, such as the UN's withdrawal from Mali.[10]

Russian forces conducted a limited series of missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine on November 12. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-59 cruise missiles and an Iskander ballistic missile at targets in southern Ukraine.[11] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a Kh-59 cruise missile over Mykolaiv Oblast and that the second Kh-59 missile and the Iskander missile struck unpopulated areas.[12]


 
Seems like the Russian forces are very active along sections of the front. They may sense there is no great enthusiasm for the fight amongst Ukraine troops. Also, they may be going for a big push before those conscripts trained by NATO are sent to the front. That's if, there isn't a military coup, first.



didn’t realise they were still sticking with this ridiculous ‘special military operation’. Both trying to suggest it’s a bit of a small scale conflict while at the same time threatening everyone with a nuclear attack. They are getting battered, have been shown up both as inept and seriously overestimated in capability. Come the new year, the weather will change, Ukraine will have Western planes. And this little country will continue to give the now discredited Russian military a good kicking, while the rest of the west just laugh at them……
 
didn’t realise they were still sticking with this ridiculous ‘special military operation’. Both trying to suggest it’s a bit of a small scale conflict while at the same time threatening everyone with a nuclear attack. They are getting battered, have been shown up both as inept and seriously overestimated in capability. Come the new year, the weather will change, Ukraine will have Western planes. And this little country will continue to give the now discredited Russian military a good kicking, while the rest of the west just laugh at them……
There movements in Africa will bring them into the Chinese spere of influences, the Chinese have been investing in Africa for years.
Upset that apple cart and they will have more than little old Ukraine to worry about.
I have a feeling that the Chinese will sence the time is right pretty soon to put a bit of pressure on Russia, they see large areas of it lands as stolen Chinese land and its people relatively recently were expelled from some border regions as Russia said they were become to Chinese on the make up of the population.
They will not forget that, more than likely get Russian relying on them for fiance they screw them over.
 
Activity on the front line.



The US Empire tried to use sanctions to damage Russia. The opposite has been the case and it's the US and it's vassals states that gave been damaged economically.




It used to be said that if the US economy caught a cold the world suffered. No more. It's just the west that suffers.



A Russian bemoans sanctions.

 
The Ukraine retreat from Avdiivka is underway.



There's internal squabbles inside the military. Blame game.



A negotiated settlement is being touted more and more. The sooner the better.

 
Russians are getting annihalated in Adviivka! Putin does not care about Russians, that much is clear.


Russian losses in Avdiivka are already greater than in Vugledar and Bakhmut - Barabash​

EXCLUSIVE
11/13/2023 6:00 p.m

Currently, Russian losses in Avdiivka have already exceeded their losses in Vugledar and Bakhmut - this is at least three to four thousand dead and seven to eight thousand wounded soldiers. Equipment losses – more than 400 units.

In an interview with Ukrinform, the head of the Avdiyiv city military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said this in an interview with Ukrinform, answering a question about the losses of the invaders.

"These are definitely several thousand dead, at least three or four thousand. Well, there are already seven or eight thousand wounded there. Many say that the enemy's losses in the Avdiyiv direction have already exceeded his losses in Vugledar and Bakhmut," said the head of the Avdiyiv Military Academy.

He noted that the losses in the number of military equipment of the Russian army in the Avdiiv direction are called different, but he believes that they exceed 400 units.

"Regarding the technique, the numbers (losses - ed.) are called different. Some say that they lost more than 200 units of equipment, others - that more than 400. I am more inclined to the second option. After all, only during the first day of this escalation, on October 10, when they left, almost 100 units of equipment were driven and about 60 of them were destroyed. They went in columns, during the first wave a lot of equipment was destroyed," explained Barabash.

As reported, since October 10, 2023, the Russian invaders have been constantly attacking the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk region and are trying to seize this city at all costs.

 
Its not the end, but it's the beginning of the end.
It could be long drawn out or very short. Afghanistan was a slow pull out, lose of interest then bang gone tomorrow.

The US Empire has passed the buck to the Europeans, to finance and arm Ukraine. That EU part of NATO, is becoming economically hampered, in part caused by the US Empire's trade war against Germany, with Hungary at the moment refusing the next trauch of military aid. Polish farmers are not to happy about Ukraine grain coming into Poland, again.

An expression of the growing fracture between the government's in the EU and the governed, are the mass demos across Europe over occupied Palestine. Political discontent has been thrust to the fore, and some of those governing are scrambling around trying to justify their stance. Political pressure is building on some governments. No matter how much the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, and NATO's Stolenberg, want to carry on the war in Ukraine, there's growing discontent as people see through the hypocrisy of their leaders.

More and more the sounds of a negotiated settlement can be heard. And not before time.
 

Zelenskiy says Russian attacks are increasing around Donetsk, Kupiansk and Avdiivka​

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said Russia is increasing its attacks across the frontline, AFP reports.

Neither side has made any significant territorial gain for months, but both Zelenskiy and the Kremlin have denied the conflict has ground to a stalemate.

“The military reported an increase in the number of enemy assaults,” Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram on Tuesday, saying Russian forces were attacking around Donetsk, Kupiansk and Avdiivka.
 
Put both of them on ignore and then the thread is still a very informative place and still one of the best places (imo) to get the latest information.

Honestly, I've got them both on ignore and the thread is absolutely miles better when you don't have to read the drivel they post.

Yeah, finally had to do that myself. First time I've used the ignore function, but it has made this thread a lot better. Otherwise it's like listening to these two dubbed by Kremlin propagandists:

1699974633404.png
 
It could be long drawn out or very short. Afghanistan was a slow pull out, lose of interest then bang gone tomorrow.

The US Empire has passed the buck to the Europeans, to finance and arm Ukraine. That EU part of NATO, is becoming economically hampered, in part caused by the US Empire's trade war against Germany, with Hungary at the moment refusing the next trauch of military aid. Polish farmers are not to happy about Ukraine grain coming into Poland, again.

An expression of the growing fracture between the government's in the EU and the governed, are the mass demos across Europe over occupied Palestine. Political discontent has been thrust to the fore, and some of those governing are scrambling around trying to justify their stance. Political pressure is building on some governments. No matter how much the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, and NATO's Stolenberg, want to carry on the war in Ukraine, there's growing discontent as people see through the hypocrisy of their leaders.

More and more the sounds of a negotiated settlement can be heard. And not before time.

I suppose the more germane question now is whether it suits Putin to negotiate a settlement.

He's in a position of strength and could secure the whole of Donetsk Oblast.
 

Zelenskiy says Russian attacks are increasing around Donetsk, Kupiansk and Avdiivka​

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said Russia is increasing its attacks across the frontline, AFP reports.

Neither side has made any significant territorial gain for months, but both Zelenskiy and the Kremlin have denied the conflict has ground to a stalemate.

“The military reported an increase in the number of enemy assaults,” Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram on Tuesday, saying Russian forces were attacking around Donetsk, Kupiansk and Avdiivka.
They're throwing more men to their deaths. Putin doesn't care, wave after wave of cannon fodder and this already worse than the Vatniks previous three defeats. You don't care for lives lost though ao it's all good.
 
I suppose the more germane question now is whether it suits Putin to negotiate a settlement.

He's in a position of strength and could secure the whole of Donetsk Oblast.
Stop with the propaganda Dave, Putin Died a few weeks ago... ☠️ He's being kept in a freezer in his house, Beside the Christmas turkey. They'll thaw him out and bury him once his double announces that he's not running in the next election and is retiering to a remote unnamed village.
 
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