Current Affairs Ukraine

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

that total included Donbas milita and rosgvardiya

even so, its nowhere near max capability.

That we can agree on. The Prisons aren't completely emptied yet.

 

[davek]

'The Princess of Wales has sent a message of support to Ukraine saying “we are all thinking of you” as she left her handprint on a picture which marked the first anniversary of the Russian invasion.'


The Ukrainians must be made up.

 

[Kev The Rat]

There's certainly a ring of truth to all that. The west being the west and with political classes who are handcuffed by their own political cycles and where for society consumption is paramount there's a limit to how long and far they go. But I think there's plenty of road left in this war sadly and tens of thousands more will perish because of that.

This will take years to settle. Possibly another 2 or 3.

My concern is how this settles

We now know that Ukraine lacks the manpower and are never going to receive the type of help they need to remove Russia from the newly acquired territories.

I think unless both trump pulls funding and the UN accepts the newly integrated areas as Russian, and also refuses to give any security guarantees to the rump state, (the second part of which is simply not going to happen if they somehow acknowledge the Donbas etc as Russia) then yes we could yet see a further Russian offensive.

Medvedev and others have said that openly in the last few weeks.

The ball is in Russias court and this war will be decided on their terms imo

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

'The Princess of Wales has sent a message of support to Ukraine saying “we are all thinking of you” as she left her handprint on a picture which marked the first anniversary of the Russian invasion.'


The Ukrainians must be made up.

The Russians will be equally furioius.

 

[verreauxi]

THE POWER of WW2

Getting strong used-car inflatable-man vibes here...

 

[Kev The Rat]

Yea.. Maybe their full might was not as mighty as they claimed.. 10200 tanks claimed before the war, a lot of which were pre 1970s more were left in storage outside for decades. what was the real number of actual fit for purpose tanks. Like most things with Russians military the real power was the perception of power.

And yet you yourself have stated that a freezing the conflict at the status quo would suit the Russians as they will simply regroup and then push on further.

 

[Tipp blue]

And yet you yourself have stated that a freezing the conflict at the status quo would suit the Russians as they will simply regroup and then push on further.

They would in time come back.. not necessarily with the same force they used for the invasion..

 

[davek]

My concern is how this settles

We now know that Ukraine lacks the manpower and are never going to receive the type of help they need to remove Russia from the newly acquired territories.

I think unless both trump pulls funding and the UN accepts the newly integrated areas as Russian, and also refuses to give any security guarantees to the rump state, (the second part of which is simply not going to happen if they somehow acknowledge the Donbas etc as Russia) then yes we could yet see a further Russian offensive.

Medvedev and others have said that openly in the last few weeks.

The ball is in Russias court and this war will be decided on their terms imo

It'll settle into skirmishes and the taking and losing and retaking and losing cycle that all these attritional wars end up as...until some major initiative is brought forward with a dash of realpolitik.

 

[davek]

I think the news from Moldova today is another indication as to the failure of elites in eastern Europe to take their populations with them when they back the line on the war of Western institutions...in this case just ban party from running in an election. We might see more of that from other states in the region. I know theres the Transnistria issue in Moldova which makes it particularly pointed but I think that analysis stands...

Moldova’s parliament began moves on Wednesday to prevent members of the banned pro-Russian Shor party running in local elections for other parties or as independent candidates.

The Constitutional Court declared the opposition party unconstitutional in June, but said on Tuesday that its members have the right to run in the local elections on Nov. 5 if they do not represent the banned party, Reuters reported.

The party, headed by exiled businessman Ilan Shor, led months of protests against President Maia Sandu and her government over rising prices. Sandu has accused both Shor and Russia of trying to destabilise Moldova since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which she has fiercely criticised.

In a move aimed against Shor party members, Moldova’s parliament approved an amendment to the Electoral Code to bar “specific people” from the local elections in its first and second readings.

The amendment, which has now completed its passage through parliament, envisages law enforcement agencies submitting a list of such people to the central election commission, which will draw up a final list.

 

[Kev The Rat]

It'll settle into skirmishes and the taking and losing and retaking and losing cycle that all these attritional wars end up as...until some major initiative is brought forward with a dash of realpolitik.

I agree I believe Russia's plan is to do nothing substantial on the ground until the coalition supporting Ukraine has irretrievably broken down. Just continue the long front attrition and attacking supply and logistics in the rear. There does appear to be preparation for some incremental advances, but nothing major. The rail link to Mariupol and points east is not yet complete and this would likely be required to support major operations in the south. Probably defensive positions along the Dnipr in Kherson are being strengthened as well.

Barring a political crisis in Kiev I don't expect any major plays for territory at least until the ground freezes or in the spring.

Another wild card is if the west tries something dramatic in hopes of provoking a Russian response that could be used to bolster support in Europe.

 

[davek]

I agree I believe Russia's plan is to do nothing substantial on the ground until the coalition supporting Ukraine has irretrievably broken down. Just continue the long front attrition and attacking supply and logistics in the rear. There does appear to be preparation for some incremental advances, but nothing major. The rail link to Mariupol and points east is not yet complete and this would likely be required to support major operations in the south. Probably defensive positions along the Dnipr in Kherson are being strengthened as well.

Barring a political crisis in Kiev I don't expect any major plays for territory at least until the ground freezes or in the spring.

Another wild card is if the west tries something dramatic in hopes of provoking a Russian response that could be used to bolster support in Europe.

Short of Nato getting in the ring it's frozen solid this war. I mean, that's what all the experts are indicating. There's virtually no chance of punching through Russian lines.

I think governing parties in the west are also looking for a breather for their political cycles to be out the way.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: Russia’s New Vision for Taking on the West

In its latest foreign policy blueprint, published at the end of March, the Kremlin outlines ambitious but vague plans for countering the United States and Washington’s allies around the globe

www.crisisgroup.org

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

It seems Ukraine have made another breakthough in Zaporizhzhia

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Also from the Zaporizhzhia region

Russia puts power unit 4 of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on hot shutdown, increasing likelihood of accident​

MSN

 

[dublinbluenose]

I agree I believe Russia's plan is to do nothing substantial on the ground until the coalition supporting Ukraine has irretrievably broken down. Just continue the long front attrition and attacking supply and logistics in the rear. There does appear to be preparation for some incremental advances, but nothing major. The rail link to Mariupol and points east is not yet complete and this would likely be required to support major operations in the south. Probably defensive positions along the Dnipr in Kherson are being strengthened as well.

Barring a political crisis in Kiev I don't expect any major plays for territory at least until the ground freezes or in the spring.

Another wild card is if the west tries something dramatic in hopes of provoking a Russian response that could be used to bolster support in Europe.

Thats been their operational achievment since late Feb 2022