Current Affairs Ukraine

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Mutzo Nutzo said:
Yup political winds are changing and yes they face time and logistics challenges but so do Russia. They also do not have access to endless supplies of arms, ammunition and supplies.

The introduction of ATACMS and GLSDB’s will seriously mess with Russias ability to maintain a coherent logistics strategy over an 800Km front and this will hurt them.

Poorly trained and equipped Russian conscripts are going to suffer greatly this winter in the trenches. After all they are up against a foe who is defending their country and their loved ones in a fight for their very existence.
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They'll see those newly declared republics as home turf though.

Yes, if the Ukrainians get long range missiles it'll impact on the Russians being able to use their land corridor with impunity. But there's still a question of how many they'll get, as Washington are very nervous about long range strikes at Russian cities and a retaliation.
 
davek said:
They'll see those newly declared republics as home turf though.

Yes, if the Ukrainians get long range missiles it'll impact on the Russians being able to use their land corridor with impunity. But there's still a question of how many they'll get, as Washington are very nervous about long range strikes at Russian cities and a retaliation.
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I think the newly declared republics will only seem home for LPR/DPR troops and there’s not many of them left.
Ukraine will feel very alien to troops from Buryatia Altai and Irkutsk.

In relation to the LR missiles. I can see ATACMS being used for selected deep strike missions only. For all other work the GLSDB’s will fulfil the role,

They have a Range of about 93 miles. They can be launched from aircraft (su24/25), the F-16’s when they arrive or land launched via HIMARS/M270 or they even come in custom launchers fabricated from ISO containers.

They’re very cheap compared to ATACMS/Storm shadow and very stealthy. The US has a mass surplus of them so supply won’t be an issue - already thought to be in-country now.
 
Could a Ukrainian wide referendum take place under cease fire, for all disputed areas. Those that vote to join Russia and those that vote to remain Ukrainian. Then work out based on what comes back, where the percentage lie and what land could be agreed to redraw borders.
this would be the will of the people then over the relevant administrations, and each country can go back to moving forwards with their own progression

Native I know, I just wondered if an independently agreed group could host, monitor and adjudicate all aspects of the vote and results, trust democratic countries to run it who have no skin in the game so to speak
 
PKwalnuts said:
Could a Ukrainian wide referendum take place under cease fire, for all disputed areas. Those that vote to join Russia and those that vote to remain Ukrainian. Then work out based on what comes back, where the percentage lie and what land could be agreed to redraw borders.
this would be the will of the people then over the relevant administrations, and each country can go back to moving forwards with their own progression

Native I know, I just wondered if an independently agreed group could host, monitor and adjudicate all aspects of the vote and results, trust democratic countries to run it who have no skin in the game so to speak
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No chance.. whatever the outcome it would be disputed.
 
Kev The Rat said:
Totally agree

Which is why I think even trump would find it hard to pull funding from a political perspective

He’d then be forced to acknowledge the new regions as Russias which may be a step too far even for for him
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New regions of Russia won't be recognised unless it forms part of peace deal with the remainder of Ukraine being immediately given NATO membership.
This is how I think it will end up..
Russia can claim some sort of Victory and Ukraine won't have to worry about aggression again.
Until both sides can sit and discuss then I'm all for Ukraine keeping up attacks.
 
Tipp blue said:
New regions of Russia won't be recognised unless it forms part of peace deal with the remainder of Ukraine being immediately given NATO membership.
This is how I think it will end up..
Russia can claim some sort of Victory and Ukraine won't have to worry about aggression again.
Until both sides can sit and discuss then I'm all for Ukraine keeping up attacks.
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Yeah I see no way Russia accepts that as terms tbh which I why I suspect trump is going to have a problem cutting funding

We’ve already had the stage set by multiple high ranking Russians such as Medvedev and Volodin saying Kiev must fall. While that may or may not happen it says Russia is not going to accept any part of Ukraine in NATO.

I understand why the west will want assurances over the rest of the country but actual entry into NATO was one of the main reasons this kicked off in the first place.
 
Kev The Rat said:
Yeah I see no way Russia accepts that as terms tbh which I why I suspect trump is going to have a problem cutting funding

We’ve already had the stage set by multiple high ranking Russians such as Medvedev and Volodin saying Kiev must fall. While that may or may not happen it says Russia is not going to accept any part of Ukraine in NATO.

I understand why the west will want assurances over the rest of the country but actual entry into NATO was one of the main reasons this kicked off in the first place.
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There will certainly be security guarantees from NATO if there isn't full membership.
The west found out the hard way that appeasement doesn't work and likely won't fall for it again.
 
Kev The Rat said:
an acknowledgement that the west has probably taken this as far as it can

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine war: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition

The UK and Nato say ammunition production must be ramped up so Ukraine can defend itself against Russia.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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Its actually a call for weapons to be produced domestically by Ukraine, which is a more medium term prospect but is already in progress - BAE are already back in Ukraine.

Its also a call to up defence spending to 2% in NATO countries, which they're supposed to do anyway.

The UK has been outpaced by Germany now in terms to military equipment being sent to Ukraine.
 
dublinbluenose said:
Its actually a call for weapons to be produced domestically by Ukraine, which is a more medium term prospect but is already in progress - BAE are already back in Ukraine.

Its also a call to up defence spending to 2% in NATO countries, which they're supposed to do anyway.

The UK has been outpaced by Germany now in terms to military equipment being sent to Ukraine.
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A call because the status quo isn’t cutting it

Whether that call is answered adequately is very questionable
 
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