Current Affairs Ukraine

[LinekersLegs]

 

[davids]

Well for a start I don’t think that is what he was saying to begin with - he was saying that they’d use nukes if Ukraine took away a part of Russia as per the decree of 2020.

That decree said they would use nukes if a nuke ir other WMD was used against them or their allies or if the existence of the state was put at risk by a state using conventional weapons. Politico (and others) conflated this with the threats made some time previously to win the war quickly by using nukes like the US did to Japan.

So the question remains of what level of threat the Ukrainian counteroffensive would have to pose in order for the decree to apply. His intention was probably to scare people into thinking he means the four part- annexed oblasts, but would losing them constitute a threat to the existence of the Russian state? When even their own allies don’t recognise the annexation?


L

It's a ticky one,they have proclaimed the Donbass as Russian soil,they have stated they will use nuclear weapons to defend Russian soil. I'd imagine that was the whole idea of the rigged referendums. They can now say,call our bluff.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Well for a start I don’t think that is what he was saying to begin with - he was saying that they’d use nukes if Ukraine took away a part of Russia as per the decree of 2020.

That decree said they would use nukes if a nuke ir other WMD was used against them or their allies or if the existence of the state was put at risk by a state using conventional weapons. Politico (and others) conflated this with the threats made some time previously to win the war quickly by using nukes like the US did to Japan.

So the question remains of what level of threat the Ukrainian counteroffensive would have to pose in order for the decree to apply. His intention was probably to scare people into thinking he means the four part- annexed oblasts, but would losing them constitute a threat to the existence of the Russian state? When even their own allies don’t recognise the annexation?


L

Last year he was more explicit in fact:

When describing a possible strike on Ukraine, a Slavic neighbour which Putin describes as an artificial historical construct, Medvedev said NATO would not get involved in such a situation.

"I believe that NATO would not directly interfere in the conflict even in this scenario," Medvedev said. "The demagogues across the ocean and in Europe are not going to die in a nuclear apocalypse."

“Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict.”

Opinion | If Putin Uses a Nuclear Weapon, How Should the World Respond?

U.S. officials say that the risk that the Russian president will break the 77-year-old nuclear taboo remains low. But he insists he’s not bluffing.

www.nytimes.com

 

[tsubaki]

Last year he was more explicit in fact:

When describing a possible strike on Ukraine, a Slavic neighbour which Putin describes as an artificial historical construct, Medvedev said NATO would not get involved in such a situation.

"I believe that NATO would not directly interfere in the conflict even in this scenario," Medvedev said. "The demagogues across the ocean and in Europe are not going to die in a nuclear apocalypse."

“Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict.”

Opinion | If Putin Uses a Nuclear Weapon, How Should the World Respond?

U.S. officials say that the risk that the Russian president will break the 77-year-old nuclear taboo remains low. But he insists he’s not bluffing.

www.nytimes.com

Sorry, what point are you making? I’ve already said repeatedly that them using a nuclear weapon on Ukraine would be seen as different to them using one on Poland.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

The statement was ‘respond in kind’

No I don’t think they would

Believe me they would.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Sorry, what point are you making? I’ve already said repeatedly that them using a nuclear weapon on Ukraine would be seen as different to them using one on Poland.

if they arent going to directly interfere and also swallow any use of any weapon, then they have only one option left - surrender.

Anyway, the scripted failure of the counter offensive probably supports that view.

 

[tsubaki]

It's a ticky one,they have proclaimed the Donbass as Russian soil,they have stated they will use nuclear weapons to defend Russian soil. I'd imagine that was the whole idea of the rigged referendums. They can now say,call our bluff.

Again, it’s not “to defend Russian soil” in that doctrine; its to defend the existence of the Russian state.

Personally I think Crimea is where one is most likely to be used, but even then would be a huge risk in these circumstances - they’d have advertised their weakness to the entire world (as they’d have had to be defeated on the battlefield to have reached that point).

 

[tsubaki]

if they arent going to directly interfere and also swallow any use of any weapon, then they have only one option left - surrender.

I think you need to understand what the word “surrender” means.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Always enjoy this guy's Ukraine stuff. Insanely well connected through his journalism and one of the best at explaining the intelligence side.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I think you need to understand what the word “surrender” means.

stop the flow of weapons presumably.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

By the way, enjoyed a great meal and party with some Ukrainian refugee families here yesterday. Maybe Kev could introduce himself and his theories about their language and culture to some living in his local area.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Not according to Medvedev, who you may not take seriously but still, this is what he said:

Nuclear weapons on the table if Ukraine counteroffensive succeeds: Russia’s Medvedev

There would be ‘no other way out’ if Kyiv takes Russian territory, says the former Russian president and current National Security Council deputy chairman.

www.politico.eu

Medvedev had said that the war in Ukraine could be “brought to an end within a few days” by doing what “the Americans did in 1945 when they deployed nuclear weapons and bombed two Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

What a character he is. Bad cop for Putin. Russia is in deep decline. Poland will have a stronger stance in a decade.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

By the way, enjoyed a great meal and party with some Ukrainian refugee families here yesterday. Maybe Kev could introduce himself and his theories about their language and culture to some living in his local area.

He wouldn't last a minute would he?

 

[Kev The Rat]

He wouldn't last a minute would he?

Probably not, the usual Ukranian tactics is to bomb their opponents as we know.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Both Russia and China have operational hypersonic missiles nobody in NATO does. Shooting down an ICBM would be some feat.

Ukraine takes out Khinzal and Iskander missiles on a regular basis using Patriot systems donated by the US.