Current Affairs Ukraine

[Joey66]

Putin asked himself, what would Everton do?

With BK at the helm - what could possibly go wrong.....

 

[davids]

The trick there is the belief that human rights means something. What people don't necessarily grasp is that military interventions are not intended to spread human rights. They are intended to install governments that produce policy outcomes the West likes. This is why people from many countries in South America are predisposed to hate Americans' guts.

This fact does not justify defending totalitarian regimes. It's like Churchill said. We're bad, they're worse.

No life was so cosy for the ethnic Russians. BBC didn't seem to agree,but now..

 

[Martin Alvito]

Interesting take. I suspect his thoughts about ending the war are coloring his analysis of who backed down, unless he has some insider information he can't share. If Putin capitulated, I think Prigozhin walks away with a better deal than he did.

It's definitely true that the best way to get Putin to the bargaining table is to start handing him substantive losses. Of course, that just results in the classic problem of Ukraine not wanting to go to the bargaining table.

 

[peteblue]

Sorry

That’s ok, but don’t do it again…

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Good piece from ISW here.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian...

www.understandingwar.org

 

[peteblue]

Good piece from ISW here.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian...

www.understandingwar.org

Either dead or the new Dictator of Belarus within a week….

 

[Martin Alvito]

Good piece from ISW here.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian...

www.understandingwar.org

Really interesting. So their take is Prigozhin probably could have taken Moscow, but was strategically dead in the water after that. Didn't consider that possibility.

 

[peteblue]

Really interesting. So their take is Prigozhin probably could have taken Moscow, but was strategically dead in the water after that. Didn't consider that possibility.

Amateur ….

 

[Martin Alvito]

Amateur ….

Fair. It leads to the same endgame, so there are worse misses. The Russians took a real hiding, in the air. There are some things that don't add up for me, given what ISW is saying, but that's not abnormal with something like this.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Good piece from ISW here.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian...

www.understandingwar.org

Really good read

 

[stipe]

Rumors from Russian milbloggers that Shoigu and Gerasimov gonna stand down next week while Surovikin (Prigozhin buddy) gonna be promoted as new Chief of Staff and Aleksey Dyumin (guy that many consider as potential Putin heir) gonna become new Defense Minister.

If that happen, seems to me Prigozhin got something from his stunt yesterday.

​

 

[tsubaki]

Fair. It leads to the same endgame, so there are worse misses. The Russians took a real hiding, in the air. There are some things that don't add up for me, given what ISW is saying, but that's not abnormal with something like this.

That "transport" shoot-down is the one that sticks out for me - some reports have it as a transport, others as an airborne command post, but why shoot it down (and who shot it down)?

On a possibly related theme, have Shogiu and Gerasimov actually been seen after the mutiny started?

 

[stipe]

That "transport" shoot-down is the one that sticks out for me - some reports have it as a transport, others as an airborne command post, but why shoot it down (and who shot it down)?

On a possibly related theme, have Shogiu and Gerasimov actually been seen after the mutiny started?

They were mercenaries marching on Moscow (tense situation) and they were probably quick on the trigger.
Anything they seen flying (unarmed Mi-8 choppers and this plane) they just shoot at.

Whole time Prigozhin was in Rostov and not with advancing columns so who knows how confused was chain of command

 

[Martin Alvito]

They were mercenaries marching on Moscow (tense situation) and they were probably quick on the trigger.
Anything they seen flying (unarmed Mi-8 choppers and this plane) they just shoot at.

Whole time Prigozhin was in Rostov and not with advancing columns so who knows how confused was chain of command

It's easy to forget that there will be garden-variety incompetence, in something like this. It's usually the best place to assign any residual, when the dust settles. We have the luxury of analysis from a comfortable chair. They don't.

On a possibly related theme, have Shogiu and Gerasimov actually been seen after the mutiny started?

Not that I know of. I didn't much like Gerasimov's odds of survival, if Wagner caught him. "Give him back." "Um, well, stuff happened, and..."

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Fat lady is tuning up. Gerasimov and Shogiu will be looking over their shoulders now after being called out. Wagner in Belarus will be lying in wait for a more opportune time. Either as a base to attack Ukraine or after the fall of Putin to claim a part of the Russian leadership. Civil war is just around the corner 1917 style.