Current Affairs Ukraine

[Johnnytotal]

For what ?

Oil ....penny dropping?

 

[Martin Alvito]

Where will it come from? Unless he goes nuclear, he's got nothing else.

He still has some options on the domestic front. The question is whether the right people will play ball. I don't think they'll play nuclear ball, now. Too risky for them, personally.

China relies on Russia also.

That's not where the leverage is. Putin needs Chinese money to prosecute a war he cannot lose. China is preparing for a naval war it's not clear the US will have the ability to contest.

With respect to oil, China has alternatives. The alternatives will cost a little more. That's not a problem for them, right now.

 

[Johnnytotal]

He still has some options on the domestic front. The question is whether the right people will play ball. I don't think they'll play nuclear ball, now. Too risky for them, personally.


That's not where the leverage is. Putin needs Chinese money to prosecute a war he cannot lose. China is preparing for a naval war it's not clear the US will have the ability to contest.

With respect to oil, China has alternatives. The alternatives will cost a little more. That's not a problem for them, right now.

Ok mate that's why since Ukraine started it's bought double the oil from Russia.

 

[Dundee mifflin]

That retreat reminded me of the 14 to West Ham

 

[Lapeno77]

Don't get the stand down from Prigozhin. Surely he knows now that leaving Putin in charge means that one day he's going to be invited to take a look out of one of those upper floor windows that Putin's opponents seem to have an issue with.
Either that or the Wagner group being force fed into a particularly nasty aspect of any Ukrainian fighting.

 

[AndyC]

Ok mate that's why since Ukraine started it's bought double the oil from Russia.

They bought it cheap because Russia dropped the price to move it on needing the revenue...

 

[Johnnytotal]

Don't get the stand down from Prigozhin. Surely he knows now that leaving Putin in charge means that one day he's going to be invited to take a look out of one of those upper floor windows that Putin's opponents seem to have an issue with.
Either that or the Wagner group being force fed into a particularly nasty aspect of any Ukrainian fighting.

Pure theatre.

 

[Johnnytotal]

They bought it cheap because Russia dropped the price to move it on needing the revenue...

You didn't know what China bought from Russia ten minutes ago

 

[Martin Alvito]

Ok mate that's why since Ukraine started it's bought double the oil from Russia.

China is buying oil at a discount, which is why they are sourcing more from the Russians.

What you're not understanding is who can walk away from the deal, and who can't. You think that someone buying oil is addicted. In this situation, China can afford to pay a little more from a different dealer. Putin, by contrast, doesn't have good alternatives for where to send oil and natural gas due to sanctions, which is why the Chinese can negotiate a discount. He also can't organize the logistics to send oil and gas elsewhere before it results in a major cashflow problem.

It's important to understand who can squeeze who, and why.

 

[AndyC]

You didn't know what China bought from Russia ten minutes ago

You refreshed my memory

 

[Johnnytotal]

China is buying oil at a discount, which is why they are sourcing more from the Russians.

What you're not understanding is who can walk away from the deal, and who can't. You think that someone buying oil is addicted. In this situation, China can afford to pay a little more from a different dealer. Putin, by contrast, doesn't have good alternatives for where to send oil and natural gas due to sanctions, which is why the Chinese can negotiate a discount. He also can't organize the logistics to send oil and gas elsewhere before it results in a major cashflow problem.

It's important to understand who can squeeze who, and why.

Your education is that of a 10 year old...if you think that is how things work

 

[Goat]

Your education is that of a 10 year old...if you think that is how things work

 

[Tipp blue]

It was interesting that the regular Russian forces loyal to Putin couldn’t even muster a tank company to oppose Wagner.

His army and resources have been stripped to the bare bones.

That one tank from the may 9th parade had a lot of weight on its little shoulders for a while today.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

A proper coup looks like this: sneak overwhelming force into the capital somehow, shoot the first few people who dare to resist, and let everyone else get the message that you're the new sheriff in town. Kill the incumbents, if they have an independent power base. Capture them, if you were the power base.

History has plenty of examples of people who rose in armed rebellion against a lawful government, like this. That's a little more chancy.


Every dictator has powerful political opponents. Going about this war in the way that he did, which cost the oligarchs that propped him up a great deal of money, made him a lot more internal enemies with some clout than before.

@trueblue84 Putin's position is indeed very precarious, now. The military is the kingmaker, and Putin is also dependent upon the Chinese for financing.

Yes, the reason Putin left Moscow is for this very reason. Wagner has agents all over Moscow. Don’t be surprised a major Putin sympathizer left their will be dead man walking.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Ok mate that's why since Ukraine started it's bought double the oil from Russia.

For an extreme discount. Don’t be fooled. The Russian economy is fading.