Current Affairs Ukraine

[Yarrgh]

We've gone from experts in virology to experts in military tactics in the space of a year and a half.

Via a passable level of knowledge in composites and the application in marine exploration.

 

[davids]

You don't shoot at the other side when they suddenly turn away from the front. You let them go, and figure out what they're doing. No sense jeopardizing a shot at reaching the conference table with spiteful parting shots.

I'd have imagined the Ukrainians would have welcomed a free shot at destroying columns of Wagner after Bakhmut.They were well within range of the UK and French cruise missiles.Would have been a turkey shoot.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I'd have imagined the Ukrainians would have welcomed a free shot at destroying columns of Wagner after Bakhmut.They were well within range of the UK and French cruise missiles.Would have been a turkey shoot.

The NATO advisers tell them not to do it. Think about it this way. The more units they have to throw at Moscow, the more damage they do to other units on their 'own' side. Plus, if they win, now they're mad at you for taking cheap shots at them while they moved to fight those that are now your joint enemies.

The odds of us having signals intelligence telling us something was brewing are good. Plus, if they come back, you can always shoot at them then.

 

[Moomin]

GOT military experts

 

[davids]

The NATO advisers tell them not to do it. Think about it this way. The more units they have to throw at Moscow, the more damage they do to other units on their 'own' side. Plus, if they win, now they're mad at you for taking cheap shots at them while they moved to fight those that are now your joint enemies.

The odds of us having signals intelligence telling us something was brewing are good. Plus, if they come back, you can always shoot at them then.

Rostov is nowhere near Moscow. And you honestly think what's left of the Azov would listen to anyone?

 

[Martin Alvito]

Rostov is nowhere near Moscow. And you honestly think what's left of the Azov would listen to anyone?

If Wagner withdraws east in quantity, either they're quitting the fight for the time being or heading to Moscow in armed insurrection. Taking Rostov alone is no good. They get squeezed and crushed, in the end, like Mariupol. It costs Putin Ukraine, but Prigozhin is not the sort of leader to make a principled stand like that. Worse, his convict army turns on him if he tries.

You were suggesting that UK and French units could fire missiles. Those units are under the direct command of NATO, at the end of the day. The officers' careers depend on doing what the higher-ups in their hierarchies want, and not what the Ukrainians ask. If the Ukrainians pressure them to do something they think their bosses won't like, they run it up the flagpole.

 

[Taifi gorm]

This has the scent of a black ops CIA intervention written all over it. Wagner has possibly done some sort of cash deal with the USA and agreed once the coup is complete not to have any Govt involvement moving forward. If he did become the new tsar its squeaky bum time as the guy is psychotic!

He'd get a bullet from a Putin loyalist or Chechen once Vlad is removed and then reset.

 

[Tramps_mate]

I thought the Tory Civil War would happen first

Do you think someone in the West has offered him more money than Russia to end this war and Putins regime? hmmm...

 

[riddick]

 

[davids]

If Wagner withdraws east in quantity, either they're quitting the fight for the time being or heading to Moscow in armed insurrection. Taking Rostov alone is no good. They get squeezed and crushed, in the end, like Mariupol. It costs Putin Ukraine, in the end, but Prigozhin is not the sort of leader to make a principled stand like that. Worse, his convict army turns on him if he tries.

You were suggesting that UK and French units could fire missiles. Those units are under the direct command of NATO, at the end of the day. The officers' careers depend on doing what the higher-ups in their hierarchies want, and not what the Ukrainians ask. If the Ukrainians pressure them to do something they think their bosses won't like, they run it up the flagpole.

No, the Ukraine have French and UK cruise missiles themselves, nowhere did I suggest NATO get involved

 

[Tramps_mate]

100%. This could get real ugly. We now have two men in way too deep in the pot to lay their poker hands down easily.


Never worth the risk, for what those regimes can offer in return.

Sounds like Russia is heading for Civil war..

 

[Martin Alvito]

This has the scent of a black ops CIA intervention written all over it. Wagner has possibly done some sort of cash deal with the USA and agreed once the coup is complete not to have any Govt involvement moving forward. If he did become the new tsar its squeaky bum time as the guy is psychotic!

I don't think we need something that complex to explain the set of observations. Show me some evidence, and I'll buy what you're selling. Until then, I'm sticking with Occam's Razor on this one. The most likely explanations are either Prigozhin is telling the truth about what happened, or he staged something to have the pretext to turn on Putin once he thought he had enough to get over the line. He's not someone with a high amount of regard for human life, so I can see him pulling a maskirovka given the internal politics.

From Prigozhin's perspective, he's screwed if they don't win the war. If he thinks the war is dead lost, his best move is to turn on Putin. Doing that sooner, rather than later, means he has more assets to throw at the problem.

No, the Ukraine have French and UK cruise missiles themselves, nowhere did I suggest NATO get involved

If Ukraine uses NATO assets in ways NATO doesn't like, they don't send more. It's the same basic problem. Team play requires sacrificing some self-indulgence, at times. If the Ukrainians weren't disciplined, they would have lost this war a long time ago.

 

[davids]

I don't think we need something that complex to explain the set of observations. Show me some evidence, and I'll buy what you're selling. Until then, I'm sticking with Occam's Razor on this one. The most likely explanations are either Prigozhin is telling the truth about what happened, or he staged something to have the pretext to turn on Putin once he thought he had enough to get over the line. He's not someone with a high amount of regard for human life, so I can see him pulling a maskirovka given the internal politics.

From Prigozhin's perspective, he's screwed if they don't win the war. If he thinks the war is dead lost, his best move is to turn on Putin. Doing that sooner, rather than later, means he has more assets to throw at the problem.


If Ukraine uses NATO assets in ways NATO doesn't like, they don't send more. It's the same basic problem. Team play requires sacrificing some self-indulgence, at times. If the Ukrainians weren't disciplined, they would have lost this war a long time ago.

They don't appear to be winning it though either (see leaked American intelligence documents)

 

[Tramps_mate]

I'd make a crap Chechen..

My beard growing skills are rubbish.

 

[Tramps_mate]

We've gone from experts in virology to experts in military tactics in the space of a year and a half.

With 40 odd thousand members (or what ever the figure is) there's always the chance that one person will be very knowledgeable in a certain area.

If we ever have a thread about drilling boreholes for ground investigations and rock strength and design, then I will be all over it!!

That or Warhammer 40,000... lol lol