Current Affairs Ukraine

[EFCthechosenone]

There's no way a scenario that sees a return to anything resembling the Feb 23 lines, accompanied by hard NATO security guarantees for Ukraine's new borders, could be spun as a success for Russia, given the reputational & commercial damage that Russia is now suffering and will continue to suffer for the next 15-20 years because of the war.

Putin will have to sell his victory as having made the marginal gain of taking Mariupol and Severodonetsk... even in Russia, few will buy it.

Of course, the tricky part remains for Ukraine to get back Melitopol and Berdyansk. But i wouldn't rule out that Russia eventually withdraws from those cities because holding them is more trouble than it's worth (similarly to Kherson).

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This

Russian troops raped and tortured children in Ukraine, U.N. panel says

The findings by the United Nations experts are the latest allegations of war crimes against Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.

www.nbcnews.com

And this

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Envy is a terrible thing. One day I’m sure with dedication and hard work you will reach your full potential as a burger flipper or some other food related service provider…don’t give up on your dream……oh and don’t infect this thread with your snide comments…contribute or find somewhere else…..

A rather telling llok at how you view workers in the hospitality industry, Peter.

 

[peteblue]

A rather telling llok at how you view workers in the hospitality industry, Peter.

If you look at the post immediately above yours, you might wish to reconsider your priorities….meanwhile I’ve reconsidered mine and I’m going the pub……

 

[roydo]

If you look at the post immediately above yours, you might wish to reconsider your priorities….meanwhile I’ve reconsidered mine and I’m going the pub……

Hope Mrs Pete enjoys her daily engagement.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Chatter that the Ukes have crossed the Dnieper in force just south of Kherson at Hola Prystan.

‘Mon the Ukes!

 

[Bohemian Toffee]

Chatter that the Ukes have crossed the Dnieper in force just south of Kherson at Hola Prystan.

‘Mon the Ukes!

Realistically, what are their objectives and most likely outcomes?

 

[tsubaki]

the way it ends is, with each side's primary sponsor simultaneously applying extreme pressure for a settlement.

For Zelensky it's the US; for Putin it's China.

Blinken is in Beijing right now and they are definitely talking about it.

I disagree, at least in terms of Ukraine - the deciding point for them is going to be when they start to get to the point where continued offensive action starts to seriously degrade their ability to defend further attacks. Continued supplies from the West can only help so much in that regard, its much more about the men and their moral.

An independent but lesser Ukraine continuing to exist after this is a win, just as Finland found in 1940 - it is a bitter win, a hard win to swallow and one that will sear itself into their national psyche, but it is still a win.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Realistically, what are their objectives and most likely outcomes?

I’m guessing to get behind the Ru 1st line of defence and then pivot toward Nova Khakovka.

Then establish a full bridgehead and bring across some of their heavy brigades. Roll up the Russians in Kherson oblast and cut off the MSR to Crimea from Zaporizhia.

Who knows after that.

 

[Bohemian Toffee]

I’m guessing to get behind the Ru 1st line of defence and then pivot toward Nova Khakovka.

Then establish a full bridgehead and bring across some of their heavy brigades. Roll up the Russians in Kherson oblast and cut off the MSR to Crimea from Zaporizhia.

Who knows after that.

That sounds incredibly ambitious, but not unwelcome, could Crimea really be in play?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

That sounds incredibly ambitious, but not unwelcome, could Crimea really be in play?

If they can isolate it from resupply then it can only serve to strengthen Ukraines hand during potential future negotiations.

 

[Bohemian Toffee]

If they can isolate it from resupply then it can only serve to strengthen Ukraines hand during potential future negotiations.

Cheers, appreciate the insight.

 

[peteblue]

Hope Mrs Pete enjoys her daily engagement.

She had a good time thanks mate…..

 

[peteblue]

That sounds incredibly ambitious, but not unwelcome, could Crimea really be in play?

If the get to Mariupol or Melitopol then Crimea is very much in play but it will take time…

 

[PhilM]