Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Gazprom have a PMC!!! Crap at fighting but will fix a burst pipe in a jiffy

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[PhilM]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[PeregrineT]

This will be an interesting few months, with the big offensive having failed, and Wagner now starting to turn on Putin. Unfortunately the only way always had to be Russian military turning on Putin, but I wonder if they see it through. They are angry they dont have enough ammo to continue to murder people, and have now come to the realization themselves that Russia is a paper tiger. I have no doubt Russia funneled their remaining resources for some time to Wagner which left the conscripts and regular army with very little. Now they have run out and Wagner is seeing the reality everyone else in the Russian army saw a while back.

 

[roydo]

This will be an interesting few months, with the big offensive having failed, and Wagner now starting to turn on Putin. Unfortunately the only way always had to be Russian military turning on Putin, but I wonder if they see it through. They are angry they dont have enough ammo to continue to murder people, and have now come to the realization themselves that Russia is a paper tiger. I have no doubt Russia funneled their remaining resources for some time to Wagner which left the conscripts and regular army with very little. Now they have run out and Wagner is seeing the reality everyone else in the Russian army saw a while back.

No idea personally. But a chilling reference I once read was that Putins entire belief system is based on him being attacked by a cornered rat as a kid. Hope he has some sane folk around him.

 

[tsubaki]

This will be an interesting few months, with the big offensive having failed, and Wagner now starting to turn on Putin. Unfortunately the only way always had to be Russian military turning on Putin, but I wonder if they see it through. They are angry they dont have enough ammo to continue to murder people, and have now come to the realization themselves that Russia is a paper tiger. I have no doubt Russia funneled their remaining resources for some time to Wagner which left the conscripts and regular army with very little. Now they have run out and Wagner is seeing the reality everyone else in the Russian army saw a while back.

Not sure about any of that tbh.

Obviously we the public don't know the truth of the size of their army, their losses, ammo consumption or anything else but they have been able to throw a lot of materiel into this war. The most reasonable OS account (Oryx) has counted nearly 2000 tanks lost and thousands more other vehicles too; they've largely destroyed at least two cities with artillery. They had prior to this war an awful lot of stuff and have killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians so calling them a paper tiger is quite a bit wide of the mark - the Ukrainians have had to fight magnificently to preserve their country up to this point.

The crossroads for Russia now is whether they go all in, with all that entails for their society and economy or try to pause this and go back to a strategy (putting splits in the West) that was working beforehand and use the time to rebuild some of what has been consumed.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Not sure about any of that tbh.

Obviously we the public don't know the truth of the size of their army, their losses, ammo consumption or anything else but they have been able to throw a lot of materiel into this war. The most reasonable OS account (Oryx) has counted nearly 2000 tanks lost and thousands more other vehicles too; they've largely destroyed at least two cities with artillery. They had prior to this war an awful lot of stuff and have killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians so calling them a paper tiger is quite a bit wide of the mark - the Ukrainians have had to fight magnificently to preserve their country up to this point.

The crossroads for Russia now is whether they go all in, with all that entails for their society and economy or try to pause this and go back to a strategy (putting splits in the West) that was working beforehand and use the time to rebuild some of what has been consumed.

I think we can all agree that whatever Russia's plan for this war was, this wasn't it.

Having your chained dog call you out on TV for ammo is hardly the sign of a functional logistics chain.

 

[tsubaki]

I think we can all agree that whatever Russia's plan for this war was, this wasn't it.

That really is the million dollar question here - what is the plan.

If it was for a short campaign to displace the Zelensky regime then its failed; if it was to do something in the much longer term then I really wonder if we can say that it has failed or is even failing. They've suffered a lot of damage, but they've caused a lot of economic damage too.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Lobster Johnson]

That really is the million dollar question here - what is the plan.

If it was for a short campaign to displace the Zelensky regime then its failed; if it was to do something in the much longer term then I really wonder if we can say that it has failed or is even failing. They've suffered a lot of damage, but they've caused a lot of economic damage too.

I dont want to, quite literally, fight old battles here but you aren't wasting the units and material Russia put on the road toward Kiev on day one on a feint. It doesn't make any sense.

On the other hand, if their medium term goal was to lose a fifth of the land they took in the first weeks, drive neighbouring countries into NATO, gut their armed forces of competent field command and show up most of their forces as a rabble whilst isolating themselves diplomatically... well, I guess I have to take my hat off to them.