Current Affairs Ukraine

[Drico]

Hmmm not sure about that.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia all contributed troops and resources to NATO ops in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan

They are and have been since they joined NATO in the top 10 of contributors to NATO by GDP out of 30 member states.

Data I’ve seen shows that in 2021 their NATO contributions were as follows

Lithuania 2.23% of GDP
Latvia 2.27% of GDP
Estonia 2.28% of GDP

All have committed to 2.5% this year

Taken in context that in 2021 the UK’s contribution was 2.29%.

Their GDP is tiny. Without the big boys providing the weaponry and resources, they are very small terriers with a loud bark and not much else.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Their GDP is tiny. Without the big boys providing the weaponry and resources, they are very small terriers with a loud bark and not much else.

Tiny it maybe but they are spending 2.5% of it on NATO. It’s all relevant. They are more than meeting their NATO commitments

 

[Drico]

Tiny it maybe but they are spending 2.5% of it on NATO. It’s all relevant. They are more than meeting their NATO commitments

And good luck to them. The point is: without the big boys, they are powerless. The likes of Landsbergis needs to pipe down. There WILL be a negotiation at some point. There is no way that the likes of Germany or the US is fighting for Crimea. And without them, there is no way Ukraine can win back Crimea.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

And good luck to them. The point is: without the big boys, they are powerless. The likes of Landsbergis needs to pipe down. There WILL be a negotiation at some point. There is no way that the likes of Germany or the US is fighting for Crimea. And without them, there is no way Ukraine can win back Crimea.

Easy for us to sit in judgement when we do not share borders with Russia.

At the end of the day it’s the United front of NATO that dictates European defensive policy not individual politicians.

Yes - there will be a negotiated settlement to this war, what that looks like today is any ones guess - think we’ll get a better idea come this Autumn.

 

[Drico]

Easy for us to sit in judgement when we do not share borders with Russia.

At the end of the day it’s the United front of NATO that dictates European defensive policy not individual politicians.

Yes - there will be a negotiated settlement to this war, what that looks like today is any ones guess - think we’ll get a better idea come this Autumn.

We are dealing with realpolitik, not morality. This is why some countries openly say Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win. This is the realistic position and differs markedly from the moral position of Ukraine must win and Russia must lose. NATO will do as much as it can do without risking a world war or direct confrontation with Russia. The big member states of NATO will do as much as their publics will allow them to do.

In all likelihood, there will have to be a negotiated settlement. The aim now is to put Ukraine in as strong a position as possible come the day of negotiation. It is not to ensure a "total victory" because the West believes that that would hugely increase the possibility of nuclear war. So, Landsbergis can demand Crimea and total victory, but he is delusional if he thinks the big powers are going to risk armageddon to achieve that. At some point, Ukraine will have to negotiate. It is right that they deny any notion of negotiation right now - that's for later - but we can do without the Baltics whipping up unrealistic expectations, or at least we can stop taking them seriously.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

We are dealing with realpolitik, not morality. This is why some countries openly say Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win. This is the realistic position and differs markedly from the moral position of Ukraine must win and Russia must lose. NATO will do as much as it can do without risking a world war or direct confrontation with Russia. The big member states of NATO will do as much as their publics will allow them to do.

In all likelihood, there will have to be a negotiated settlement. The aim now is to put Ukraine in as strong a position as possible come the day of negotiation. It is not to ensure a "total victory" because the West believes that that would hugely increase the possibility of nuclear war. So, Landsbergis can demand Crimea and total victory, but he is delusional if he thinks the big powers are going to risk armageddon to achieve that. At some point, Ukraine will have to negotiate. It is right that they deny any notion of negotiation right now - that's for later - but we can do without the Baltics whipping up unrealistic expectations, or at least we can stop taking them seriously.

I don’t disagree with most of that.

Personally I think Crimea is a step too far for Ukraine to hope for. I would however be worried if the “Take Crimea” rhetoric was coming from Stoltenburg himself rather than from a Lithuanian politician with no direct affiliation with NATO. At the end of the day it’s his opinion, he’s free to express it and I don’t think anyone is seriously listening to him and I include Zelensky and Putin in that list.

By the autumn I believe all parties will be sitting around a table seriously talking about how they deconflict. However there’s a lot more twists and turns in the road before then.

 

[Drico]

I don’t disagree with most of that.

Personally I think Crimea is a step too far for Ukraine to hope for. I would however be worried if the “Take Crimea” rhetoric was coming from Stoltenburg himself rather than from a Lithuanian politician with no direct affiliation with NATO. At the end of the day it’s his opinion, he’s free to express it and I don’t think anyone is seriously listening to him and I include Zelensky and Putin in that list.

By the autumn I believe all parties will be sitting around a table seriously talking about how they deconflict. However there’s a lot more twists and turns in the road before then.

Let's hope so.

 

[PhilM]

Bakhmut or what’s left of it us about to fall. Russia has it surrounded on 3 sides. It’s time for the Ukes to get the hell out of dodge.

While I may be wrong, I would surmise that Ukraine are attempting to hold Bakhmut for as long as they can for three key reasons.

In terms of tactical reasoning, the city is a central piece of the local road network, which will help Russia to use it as a staging post; likewise, it'll limit Ukraine.

Additionally, maintaining Bakhmut may allow Ukraine to be preparing defences to the west of the city, because to fall back now may leave the line vulnerable.

Lastly, which is less tactical and more to do with overall moral, losing the city would be a significant blow to Ukraine and may embolden Russia.

Therefore, regrettably, the meat grinder may be worth it in the wider sense.

 

[tsubaki]

Hmmm not sure about that.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia all contributed troops and resources to NATO ops in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan

They are and have been since they joined NATO in the top 10 of contributors to NATO by GDP out of 30 member states.

Data I’ve seen shows that in 2021 their NATO contributions were as follows

Lithuania 2.23% of GDP
Latvia 2.27% of GDP
Estonia 2.28% of GDP

All have committed to 2.5% this year

Taken in context that in 2021 the UK’s contribution was 2.29%.

As has been said already, 2-3% of a little amount is a very little amount.

 

[tsubaki]

Russia have really done a number on some of the US citizens.




As discussed previously with operation infektion, Yuri Bezmenov et al, they've played the long game with real commitment

39 years ago, a KGB defector chillingly predicted modern America

A former KGB agent named Yuri Alexandrovich Bezmenov claimed in 1984 that Russia has a long-term goal of ideologically subverting the U.S.

bigthink.com

TBF the one thing I disagree with most about this reusing of Bezmenov is the idea that but for the KGB this sort of thing wouldn't have happened.

That does let off the hook a lot of people in the US (and here, and in Europe) who have actively promoted this sort of divisive politics (as well as the long history of divisive politics that they have peddled). It also ignores a lot of what those people have actually done to stoke that division - increasing inequality, reducing social cohesion, reducing opportunity, boosting consumerism and all the rest - which is something a foreign government agency would have a lot more difficulty in doing.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

While I may be wrong, I would surmise that Ukraine are attempting to hold Bakhmut for as long as they can for three key reasons.

In terms of tactical reasoning, the city is a central piece of the local road network, which will help Russia to use it as a staging post; likewise, it'll limit Ukraine.

Additionally, maintaining Bakhmut may allow Ukraine to be preparing defences to the west of the city, because to fall back now may leave the line vulnerable.

Lastly, which is less tactical and more to do with overall moral, losing the city would be a significant blow to Ukraine and may embolden Russia.

Therefore, regrettably, the meat grinder may be worth it in the wider sense.

Aye I think it’s a combination of all of the reasons you mention. I think however now is the time to withdraw. As mentioned by Zelensky there’s nothing left to defend - it’s been completely levelled.

 

[peteblue]

And good luck to them. The point is: without the big boys, they are powerless. The likes of Landsbergis needs to pipe down. There WILL be a negotiation at some point. There is no way that the likes of Germany or the US is fighting for Crimea. And without them, there is no way Ukraine can win back Crimea.

Germany lol…

 

[WA Toffee]

As has been said already, 2-3% of a little amount is a very little amount.

Remember when Barry Horne scored one goal in one game in one season?
It's a very little amount, but it changed our history

Both world wars are littered with tiny victories which changed an entire landscape (eg Gallipoli)

It really is quite disrespectful to dismiss countries punching above their weight just because they don't have the population of UK or Germany

 

[Bishop Thumpety-Thump]

Remember when Barry Horne scored one goal in one game in one season?
It's a very little amount, but it changed our history

Both world wars are littered with tiny victories which changed an entire landscape (eg Gallipoli)

It really is quite disrespectful to dismiss countries punching above their weight just because they don't have the population of UK or Germany

Agree with the sentiment but Gallipoli was a defeat not a victory. Unless you’re Turkish of course!

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

TBF the one thing I disagree with most about this reusing of Bezmenov is the idea that but for the KGB this sort of thing wouldn't have happened.

That does let off the hook a lot of people in the US (and here, and in Europe) who have actively promoted this sort of divisive politics (as well as the long history of divisive politics that they have peddled). It also ignores a lot of what those people have actually done to stoke that division - increasing inequality, reducing social cohesion, reducing opportunity, boosting consumerism and all the rest - which is something a foreign government agency would have a lot more difficulty in doing.

You don't miss the point entirely but this approach sought to influence and manipulate generations, yes, but did so by looking for weakness/hate/insecurity and developing that. Not just in adults/useful fools at specific points in time but more importantly entire youthful cohorts/generations and feed a narrative through impressionable years. It has been very effective.